<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-477062" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023.  Chalinee Thirasupa | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices continued to hover near record highs days after Middle East tensions flared, boosting the safe-haven appeal of bullion.



Gold prices notched another record close Monday, with the most-active June contract for gold futures trading 0.37% higher to settle at $2,383 per ounce, and some say there’s more room to run.



“The recent gold rally has been aided by geopolitical heat and is coinciding with record equity index levels,” Citi wrote in a note dated April 15.



Demand for the safe-haven asset grew amid escalating tensions in the Middle East after Iran fired over 300 drones and missiles directly at Israel — most of which were intercepted, thanks to Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.



Market watchers are closely monitoring a potential retaliation by the Jewish state, which has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran.



A significant retaliation could lead to a wider conflict, which would consequently trigger renewed buying of gold, as well as a rally in oil prices and strengthening of the U.S. dollar, said Bartosz Sawicki, market analyst at financial services firm Conotoxia fintech.



Gold, which retains its value as a hedge against inflation, tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



Bullion prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday last Friday.



Spot gold prices have been on a tear since the start of the year, climbing over 15% year-to-date on the back of a cocktail of factors including a global central bank splurge, geopolitical tensions and expectations of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. 



Gold prices usually have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates fall, gold becomes more appealing compared with fixed income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns.



Hotter-than-expected inflation in March pushed back market expectations of a rate cut to September, and the expectation is now for two rate reductions instead of three.



n spite of that, analysts remain bullish on the yellow metal’s outlook, boosted by continued physical demand as well as its appeal as a geopolitical hedge.&nbsp;



“We project $3,000/oz gold over the next 6-18m,” said Citi’s analysts led by Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research. The financial gold “price floor” has also moved higher from around $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce, Citi said.



On Friday, Goldman Sachs referred to the gold market as an “unshakeable bull market” and revised upward its price target for the yellow metal from $2,300 per ounce to $2,700 by the end of the year.



— CNBC’s Gina Francolla contributed to this report.

107385958-1710210089452-gettyimages-1868370670-THAILAND_GOLD

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-476778" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GettyImages-1243546489-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The World Bank Group headquarters in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. World Bank President Malpass said he hasn&#8217;t considered resigning and isn&#8217;t under pressure from member countries to do so, after critics slammed him for dodging questions on whether he accepted the scientific consensus that the burning of fossil fuels is driving global warming. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Half of the world&#8217;s 75 poorest countries are experiencing a widening income gap with the wealthiest economies for the first time this century in a historical reversal of development, the World Bank said in a report on Monday.



The differential between per capita income growth in the poorest countries and the richest has widened over the past five years, according to the report.



&#8220;For the first time, we see there is no convergence. They&#8217;re getting poorer,&#8221; Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist for the World Bank and one of the report&#8217;s authors, told Reuters.



&#8220;We see a very serious structural regression, a reversal in the world &#8230; that&#8217;s why we are ringing the alarm bells here,&#8221; he said.



The report said the 75 countries eligible for grants and zero-interest loans from the World Bank&#8217;s International Development Association (IDA) risk a lost decade of development without ambitious policy shifts and significant international aid.



Kose said growth in many IDA countries had already begun to taper off in these countries before the COVID-19 pandemic, but it would be just 3.4% in 2020-2024, the weakest half-decade of growth since the early 1990s. Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, climate change, increases in violence and conflict also weighed heavily on their prospects.



More than half of all IDA countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa; 14 are in East Asia and eight are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Thirty-one have per capita incomes of less than $1,315 a year. They include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan and Haiti.



One in three IDA countries is poorer now than on the eve of the pandemic. IDA countries account for 92% of the world&#8217;s people who lack access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, nutritious food. Half of the countries are in debt distress, meaning they are unable to service debt or are at high risk of not being able to.



And despite their young populations &#8211; a demographic boon at a time when populations were aging nearly everywhere else, rich natural resources and abundant solar-energy potential, private and government creditors had been backing away from them.



U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh raised concerns about the worsening situation last week, warning China and other emerging official creditors against free-riding by curtailing loans to low-income countries just as the IMF or multilateral development banks were pouring funds in.



Almost 40 countries saw external public debt outflows in 2022, and the flows likely worsened in 2023, he said.



Kose said ambitious policies were needed to accelerate investment, including domestic efforts to strengthen fiscal, monetary and financial policies, and structural reforms to improve education and increase domestic revenues.



Significant financial support from the global community was also essential to make progress and lower the risk of protracted stagnation, Kose said, noting that the World Bank hoped to drum up a robust replenishment of IDA funds by December.



Stronger international coordination on climate change, debt restructurings and measures supporting cross-border trade would also be crucial, it said.



Indermit Gill, World Bank chief economist, noted that China, India and South Korea &#8211; now major economic powerhouses &#8211; had once been among the world&#8217;s poorest countries, but were able to tackle extreme poverty and raise living standards.



&#8220;The world cannot afford to turn its back on IDA countries,&#8221; he said.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

World Bank As Chief Wont Resign Over Climate Comments

World Bank sounds alarm on ‘historical reversal’ of development for poorest nations

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423316" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/F4TO3YKQWNK6NCNXZJUQ2UEGC4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, U.S., May 10, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday said higher U.S. interest rates were not great news for the rest of the world and could become a worry if they continued for a long time, but she thought the U.S. Federal Reserve was acting prudently.



Georgieva, speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, said the U.S. government could also look at taking other measures to ensure that the U.S. economy was not overheating, but gave no details.



&#8220;Higher interest rates for the rest of the world is not great news. Higher interest rates make the U.S. more attractive so financial flows come here and that leaves the rest of the world somewhat struggling,&#8221; she said.



Higher rates also drove the value of the dollar higher, which meant other countries&#8217; currencies were weaker.



&#8220;If it continues for a long time, it could become a bit of a worry in terms of financial stability,&#8221; she said.



Consumer level inflation data for March released on Wednesday was unexpectedly strong, casting further doubt on the Fed’s current forecast of rate cuts at some point later this year.



The unfavorable price pressure data comes as other reports also pointed to sturdier inflation over the start of the year, challenging the Fed’s most recent projections that penciled in three rate cuts this year.



Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve showed officials worried that progress on inflation may have stalled, and a longer period of tight monetary policy would be needed to tame it in the world&#8217;s largest economy.



Investors who had earlier expected a rate cut in June now see September as a likelier timing for the easing cycle to begin, following a third consecutive stronger-than-forecast reading on consumer inflation.



Georgieva said the U.S. economy had been successful because it was more innovative, opening space for entrepreneurship at a time of accelerating technological change.



The U.S. labor market had also held up well, with labor supply boosted by immigration, which in turn helped keep wage growth under control, she said.



The Biden administration&#8217;s Inflation Reduction Act and earlier COVID aid had helped support growth, she said, adding that the International Monetary Fund saw some scope for the U.S. government to address lingering inflation and work toward a soft landing for the economy.



&#8220;So fasten your belts,&#8221; she said. &#8220;At some point we will be landing.&#8221;



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Bill Berkrot)

FILE PHOTO: Man walks past the IMF logo at HQ in Washington

IMF head says higher US rates could become a worry if they persist

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-475173" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/VYRWOXIFAFINVMT3XJTBLOGTZQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Anna Bjerde, Managing Director for Operations of The World Bank, attends the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in San Francisco, California, U.S., November 15, 2023. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank Group&nbsp;unveiled a&nbsp;framework&nbsp;on Tuesday&nbsp;for measuring the results of its development work with 22&nbsp;indicators&nbsp;in what a top official called an important advance in the bank&#8217;s push to increase transparency and accountability.



Anna Bjerde, the World Bank&#8217;s managing director of operations, said&nbsp;the&nbsp;scorecard would allow its shareholders and the people it serves&nbsp;to better&nbsp;see, measure and track the impact of the bank&#8217;s lending and grants.



&#8220;A vision and mission are really great, but unless you can translate it into actions and measure it, then it&#8217;s quite aspirational, and we also want it to be operational,&#8221; Bjerde told&nbsp;Reuters.



The&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;and other major shareholders have pushed the World Bank&nbsp;to improve how it helps&nbsp;countries address issues such as climate change and pandemic preparedness.



It has already added the phrase &#8220;livable planet&#8221; to its mission statement and reduced the number of its projects to focus on more programmatic and transformational projects.



The scorecard includes 22 global indicators &#8211; down from 150 on a previous instrument &#8211; for poverty, prosperity and a livable planet, as well as themes such as gender equality, inclusion of youth, and how people live in fragile, conflict-affected areas.



It will enable a closer look at development outcomes by adopting a more &#8220;people-centric&#8221; approach, Bjerde said.



For the first time, the work of all World Bank institutions &#8211; including the International Finance Corp and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development &#8211; will be tracked through the same set of indicators.



“It’s a real game changer, providing a new guidepost that our teams can rally around, and provides full visibility on how well we are tackling the most difficult challenges like poverty, climate change, fragility and food insecurity,&#8221; Bjerde said.



The bank sees the scorecard as part of its push to focus on outcomes, not inputs, for instance by measuring the number of people that actually use financial services, not just how many have access.



The bank is still working out the detailed methodologies to calculate the scores in each of the 22 indicators, she said, with half to be released in June and the rest in October.



The first batch will include data on how many people have access to electricity worldwide, and social safety net programs.



The data will include transparent data broken down by gender, regions, age and whether people are in fragile and conflicted-affected countries.



Drilling in like that will allow the bank, its shareholders and clients to &#8220;see how we&#8217;re doing but also where we need to double down,&#8221; she said.



(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Josie Kao)

FILE PHOTO: APEC Summit in San Francisco

World Bank unveils new scorecard to measure accountability

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="571" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-820x571.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-474865" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-820x571.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-768x535.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-1536x1070.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/YNH43WBRZBKVHDDQ3KLQGQUX2E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A girl carries a container of water at a coltan mine in Kamatare, Masisi territory, North Kivu Province of Democratic Republic of Congo, December 1, 2018. REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG/WASHINGTON, April 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The U.S. must boost commercial ties with African countries to curb reliance on China for supplies of critical minerals, a Washington-based think tank said on Tuesday.



&#8220;U.S. economic and national security depend on securing a reliable supply of critical minerals, including from Africa,&#8221; the United States Institute of Peace said in a report.



The U.S. is almost 100% reliant on &#8220;foreign entities of concern,&#8221; mainly China, for key critical minerals, it said, and must come up with own sources of supply to avoid being shorthanded and vulnerable to China&#8217;s export curbs.



Western mining companies are lagging Chinese rivals in the race to tap Africa&#8217;s abundant mineral resources, key to sectors from electric vehicle manufacturing to defence industries.



To counter China&#8217;s head start in Africa, Washington must roll out &#8220;more vigorous commercial diplomacy with a keen eye toward building critical minerals partnership in Africa,&#8221; the 76-page report said.



One option for the U.S. would be to increase commercial diplomacy in countries such as Democratic Republic of Congo, the world&#8217;s No. 1 cobalt supplier, and Zambia, Africa&#8217;s second-largest copper producer, it said.



The competition for securing minerals in Africa is heating up as cash-rich Middle East firms join the race.



While Western mining companies still see hurdles in investing in countries such as Congo, which lacks vital infrastructure such as roads and adequate electricity, Chinese miners have strengthened their grip in the country and are broadening investment throughout Africa.



The International Development Finance Corporation said in February it could scale up project financing in Africa to help reduce the risk of investing in countries including Congo that some investors still perceive as high risk.



Unlocking U.S. investment in Congo could be helped by reopening its consulate in Lubumbashi that closed in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War, Tuesday&#8217;s USIP report said.



The government also needs to prioritize full development of a memorandum of understanding with Congo and Zambia which could help guide U.S. private investors across the battery metals supply chain, it said.



The U.S. has stepped in to back the Lobito Corridor, a rail link from the central African copper belt that&#8217;s key to export of metals through Angola&#8217;s Lobito port.



The U.S. is &#8220;simply not on, or even near, par in competing with China&#8221; for critical minerals investment and diplomacy in Africa, and needs to take a vigorous approach, USIP said.



Jose Fernandez, the U.S. State Department&#8217;s under secretary for economic growth, energy, and the environment said last month the U.S. holds regular talks with Congo state miner Gecamines.



Still, the U.S. government is unlikely to match the resource levels and the mining ecosystem that China wields in winning mining contracts, USIP said, though &#8220;concerted U.S. efforts to land U.S. mining investment in Africa can succeed.&#8221;



(Reporting by Felix Njini in Johannesburg, Ernest Scheyder in Houston and Daphne Psaledakis in WashingtonEditing by Peter Graff)

FILE PHOTO: A girl carries a container of water at a coltan mine in Kamatare, Masisi territory, North Kivu Province of Democratic Republic of Congo

US must boost Africa ties to secure key minerals, report says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-820x540.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-474616" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-820x540.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-768x506.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-1536x1011.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/DIWUE6H53FK55N7IANRDIEK5BA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Street vendors are seen serving customers in Camama, on the outskirts of the capital Luanda, in Angola, August 20, 2022. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, April 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Economic growth is set to rise for the next two years in Sub-Saharan Africa, but not enough to make a significant dent in poverty on the continent, the World Bank said in a report on Monday.



The region&#8217;s economy is set to expand 3.4% this year and 3.8% in 2024 as falling inflation boosts private consumption, up from 2.4% in 2023, the World Bank said in its biannual Africa&#8217;s Pulse report.



Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were hit hard by the shocks of COVID-19 and Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine, which pushed up inflation at the same time as rising global interest rates made borrowing prohibitively expensive. Drought and conflict have also affected swathes of the region.



&#8220;Growth is set to bounce back in Sub-Saharan Africa but the recovery is still fragile,&#8221; the report said. &#8220;The pace of economic expansion in the region remains slow and insufficient to have a significant effect on poverty reduction.&#8221;



&#8220;Per capita GDP growth of 1% is associated with poverty reduction of only 1% in the region, compared to 2.5% in the rest of the world.&#8221;



South Africa&#8217;s growth rate is forecast to double in 2024, but just to 1.2%, while Angola&#8217;s is set to pick up to 2.8% from 0.8% last year, driven mainly by the non-oil sector amid falling oil production.



The East African Community region, in contrast, is expected to grow 5.3% this year, due to strong growth in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.



West Africa&#8217;s biggest economy, Nigeria, is forecast to grow 3.3% this year, below its long-term average.



Zambia defaulted on its external debt in 2020, followed by Ghana in 2022 and Ethiopia late last year.



Sub-Saharan Africa&#8217;s public debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to fall from 61% in 2023 to 57% this year, but more than half of countries are still in or at high risk of debt distress, the report said.



It noted that external borrowing was still more expensive than before the pandemic, despite costs starting to fall.



&#8220;Typically when countries are in these situations, another big shock could send a lot of these countries into these types of financial crises and therefore default,&#8221; Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank&#8217;s chief Africa economist, said in a press briefing, but added, &#8220;We can&#8217;t tell if there&#8217;s going to be another default or not.&#8221;



(Reporting by Rachel Savage; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

FILE PHOTO: Street vendors are seen serving customers in Luanda

Sub-Saharan Africa growth not enough to dent poverty, says World Bank

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



April 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks dipped on Friday, tracking overnight weakness on Wall Street, as hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials dampened risk sentiment and tensions in the Middle East kept investors on edge.



The MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;fell 0.3% but was still on track for marginal weekly gains.



Emerging market debt saw its first weekly inflow for eight weeks and EM stocks saw inflows of $3.8 billion in the week ended on Wednesday, according to a note by BofA Global Research.



The currencies index&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was flat by 0900 GMT.



&#8220;The risk-reward profile of global risk assets is not attractive,&#8221; Arthur Budaghyan, chief emerging market and China strategist for BCA Research, said in a note.



&#8220;Higher U.S. bond yields and rising oil prices might spoil the party.&#8221;



Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said that at the U.S. central bank&#8217;s meeting last month he pencilled in two interest rate cuts this year &#8211; but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year-end.



Traders were also hesitant to take on new positions ahead of Friday&#8217;s closely-watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, while rising geopolitical tensions added to worries.



Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu&#8217;s comments that Israel would harm &#8220;whoever harms us or plans to harm us&#8221; stoked fears of a wider war, after its presumed air strike on Iran&#8217;s embassy in Damascus earlier this week.



The Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;jumped 0.7% against the dollar, while stocks in Tel Aviv&nbsp;.TA125&nbsp;shed 1.6%.



Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;led gains against the euro among Central and Eastern European peers, up 0.4% after a raft of economic data.



Hungary&#8217;s industrial output rose by an annual 1.8% in February, based on preliminary unadjusted data, compared with a 3.6% fall in January, while another survey showed calendar-adjusted retail sales rose by an annual 1.1% in February following a 0.6% rise in January.



The forint and Poland&#8217;s zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;were on track for their second straight week of gains.



Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng index&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;closed nearly flat, while stocks in mainland China were closed and will resume trade on April 8.



In India, stocks were range-bound after the central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged for a seventh straight policy meeting as growth is expected to remain robust while inflation stays above the 4% target.



(Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Stocks slip on Fed rate caution and geopolitical woes, currencies flat

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-463267" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107368871-1707125203700-gettyimages-1244583255-ZAMBIA_COPPER.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Copper plates on wagons ready for onward shipping at the Mufulira refinery, operated by Mopani Copper Mines Plc, in Mufulira, Zambia, on Friday, May 6, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



April 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;London base metal prices rose on Thursday, with copper hitting its highest level in more than 14 months, supported by a weaker dollar and global rate cuts hopes.



Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME)&nbsp;CMCU3&nbsp;was up 0.9% at $9,344 per metric ton by 0752 GMT. The contract leapt to as much as $9,380 earlier in the session, a level last seen on Jan. 27, 2023.



The dollar fell as investors waited on U.S. labour data for clues on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s interest rate outlook. A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies.



Prices were also supported by Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s affirmation that his outlook on lowering the policy rate at some point this year remained the same and will continue to be guided by economic data.



Meanwhile, Euro zone inflation fell unexpectedly last month, solidifying the case for the European Central Bank to start lowering borrowing costs from record highs.



&#8220;A notable surge in speculative activity on the LME, paired with expectations of relaxed monetary policy outlook in Europe, has propelled metal prices to their highest levels in several months,&#8221; said Sucden Financial analysts in a note.



&#8220;The anticipation of monetary policy cutting cycle and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further ease the pressure that has been felt by base metals in recent months,&#8221; they added.



China&#8217;s stronger-than-expected manufacturing data released earlier this week also boosted optimism around metals demand outlook in their biggest consuming market.



Prices of copper price have especially been aided by output cut plans by Chinese smelters amid a shortage of raw materials.



LME aluminium&nbsp;CMAL3&nbsp;advanced 1% to $2,452, nickel&nbsp;CMNI3&nbsp;increased 0.7% to $17,465, zinc&nbsp;CMZN3&nbsp;rose 1.3% to $2,580.50, lead&nbsp;CMPB3&nbsp;advanced 1.2% to $2,107.50 a ton and tin&nbsp;CMSN3&nbsp;climbed 0.9% to $28,640.



The Chinese markets are closed for a public holiday on Thursday and Friday.



For the top stories in metals and other news, click



TOP/MTL&nbsp;or&nbsp;MET/L



(Reporting by Mai Nguyen in Hanoi; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Philippa Fletcher)

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Copper hits 14-month high on rate cut hopes and soft dollar

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-472903" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Roughly half of adults are stressed about personal finance, a new survey spanning various advanced economies found. D3sign | Moment | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



At least half of adults in a range of major economies report being stressed about their personal finances, and say inflation is one of the main reasons.



A significant number also say they feel worse-off financially than their parents, and are pessimistic about their children’s financial futures, the International Your Money Financial Security Survey conducted by SurveyMonkey found.



In the U.S., Australia, Spain and Mexico, around 70% of adults said they were “very or somewhat stressed” about money. The percentage reduced slightly to 63% in the U.K., 57% in Germany, 55% in Switzerland, and roughly half of people in Singapore and France.



Across those countries, between a half and two thirds of people said they considered themselves to be part of the middle class — except in the U.K., where it was a lower 37%.



Yet despite the middle classes traditionally being considered financially comfortable, between 45% and 62% of those who put themselves in that group described themselves as “living paycheck to paycheck.”



Half of adults in Australia, Germany and the U.K. said they were worse off than they were five years ago.



Meanwhile, of the countries surveyed, only adults in Singapore and Mexico were more likely than not to say they were better-off financially than their parents.



Inflation was widely cited as the source of financial stress, along with a lack of savings, economic instability and rising interest rates.



The study of 4,342 adults was carried out in March and released on Wednesday,



“The health of the global economy, though muted in some areas, is not being reflected in the perceptions of the average person&#8230; Despite the performance of the economy writ large, roughly half of adults are stressed about their personal finances in every country studied around the world,” said Eric Johnson, CEO of SurveyMonkey, in an accompanying article.



Global economic growth is slowing yet most developed economies have avoided the recessions that were forecast amid high inflation and interest rate hikes. Labor markets have proved resilient, but numerous surveys have suggested grim sentiment among consumers who have been hit hard by price rises in household bills and everyday goods.

107345165-1702048316016-gettyimages-1421604025-dsc05224

Half of adults globally are stressed about their finances, and inflation is a key reason

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-416545" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-820x517.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-300x189.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-143x90.jpeg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-768x484.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-1536x969.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A participant stands near a logo of World Bank at the International Monetary Fund &#8211; World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018.
Johannes Christo | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, April 2 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Bank is looking to issue up to $1 billion in a debut hybrid note on capital markets this year, a senior executive told Reuters, as development banks face increasing pressure to find new ways to boost their lending.



The G20 group of major economies has urged multilateral lenders to explore hybrid financing structures in a push to try and maximise balance sheets and increase funding to help developing economies cope with crises, including climate change.



The World Bank would be only the second multilateral lender to issue such an instrument after the African Development Bank (AfDB) sold its hybrid capital note in January &#8211; the first such financing of its kind from a multilateral lender.



When the AfDB sold this deeply subordinated, debt-like equity instrument, it said it hoped to establish this as a new asset class.



&#8220;We are working towards a potential pilot transaction some time this calendar year,&#8221; said George Richardson, director of the capital markets and investment department at the World Bank Treasury.



&#8220;It would be interesting to see if we can find a new way of raising money. The proof is in the pudding,&#8221; said Richardson, adding the lender was talking to investors about the issue and was also closely monitoring market conditions.



Looking at the ratings that would be assigned to the new instrument, Richardson said the World Bank was convinced that hybrid capital issued by multilateral development banks would be a better credit, relative to senior, unsecured bonds, than currently reflected in the rating agencies&#8217; methodologies.



&#8220;These state that hybrid capital will be rated 3 to 5 notches below senior ratings,&#8221; he said, adding that Fitch was undergoing a methodology change and it remained to be seen what changes the ratings agency would make on hybrid capital.



&#8220;We are not commercial banks nor a corporate. Our governance and ownership structure makes us better credits than commercial banks and corporates,&#8221; he added.



Moody&#8217;s assigned an AA3 rating to the AfDB issue, three notches below the bank&#8217;s AAA rated bonds. The AfDB hybrid issue traded at 97.6 cents in the dollar on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, below its debut of just over 100 cents in the dollar in early February. 008281BF3=



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Editing by Bernadette Baum)

106944604-16321717072021-09-20t205319z_656748898_rc2wtp9oerrm_rtrmadp_0_worldbank-ethics-report

World Bank set to issue up to $1 bln in debut hybrid note this year

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-470467" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A farmers holds cocoa beans while he is drying them at a village in Sinfra, Ivory Coast, on April 29, 2023. Luc Gnago | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Consumers could start to see the effect of surging cocoa prices as the world faces the worst supply deficit in decades, with farmers in West Africa struggling against bad weather, disease and failing trees.



Cocoa futures for May delivery surged to an all-time intraday high of $10,080 per metric ton Tuesday before ending the day down 0.3% to settle at $9,622. Cocoa has more than tripled in cost over the past year and is up 129% in 2024.



Hershey CEO Michele Buck told CNBC last month that the company has a hedging strategy to manage the price volatility. The National Confectioners Association told CNBC in an email that the industry is working with retailers to “manage down costs” and keep chocolate affordable for consumers.



Though the large chocolate companies were well-hedged last year and did not have to immediately pass on high prices to consumers, there is only so much the industry can do to absorb costs, said Paul Joules, a commodities analyst at Rabobank.



The world is facing the largest cocoa supply deficit in more than 60 years and consumers could start to see the effect at the end of this year or early 2025, Joules said. The International Cocoa Organization has forecast a supply deficit of 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season, a 405% increase from a deficit of 74,000 tons in the previous season.



“The worst is still yet to come,” Joules said. Cocoa prices will likely remain elevated for some time because there are no easy fixes to the systemic issues facing the market, he said.



Consumers could face higher prices or “shrinkflation” in the form of smaller chocolate bars, Joules said. Companies might also adjust ingredients to use less cocoa in some products, he said. The worst sticker shock would come from dark chocolate, which has a very high cocoa content, the analyst said.



David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, said consumers could see higher prices as soon as Easter, which is on Sunday.



“Given that cocoa prices and other manufacturing costs have been rising steadily over the past year, it is likely consumers will see a price spike on chocolate candy this Easter,” Branch told clients in a research note this month.



Cocoa prices have been on a tear due to supply disruptions in the key producing nations of Ivory Coast and Ghana, Joules said. The two countries represent about 60% of global cocoa production.



Crops have been hit by black pod disease and swollen shoot virus and many trees are past their maximum yield potential because there has not been a major round of planting since the early 2000s, Joules said.



Heavy rains exacerbated the disease issues, Branch said, and the El Niño weather phenomenon has also led to drier conditions resulting in lower cocoa yields in previous years. Seasonal harmattan winds were more extreme this year, also affecting crop yields, Branch said.



Farmers in Ivory Coast are increasingly exiting cocoa production for more lucrative crops such as rubber, Joules said. The governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast set fixed prices for the farmers at the start of the season so they are not benefiting from the currently rally, the analyst said.



The recent runup is likely due to panic among some commercial buyers rather than market speculation, Joules said. Buyers see the magnitude of the supply deficit and are trying to secure the cocoa that is available, according to the analyst.



Speculators contributed to the early leg of the rally last year as they bet on higher prices by increasing their long positions, Joules said, but they have been exiting those positions this year to book profits.



The spike in prices has hit chocolate giant Hershey, which sees flat earnings for the year. Hershey stock is down about 22% over the past 12 months, while Nestle’s Switzerland-listed shares have shed about 13% during the same period.

107392986-17114704652024-03-18t151531z_1895541940_rc2co0a0r3k6_rtrmadp_0_cocoa-ivorycoast-prices

Cocoa prices are soaring to record levels. What it means for consumers and why ‘the worst is still yet to come’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-468014" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Pump jacks operate at sunset in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. Picture taken August 22, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, March 19 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Oil prices hit four-month highs on Tuesday after breaking above range-bound trading last week, but gains were capped by the prospect of rising exports from Russia as Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure curb domestic refining activity.



The Brent crude oil futures&nbsp;LCOc1&nbsp;contract for May delivery was up 33 cents at $87.22 a barrel by 1320 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices were up 31 cents at $82.47.



The WTI April contract, which expires on Wednesday, was up 31 cents at $83.03.



Both benchmarks hit highs not reached since early November, buoyed by lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq as well as signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the United States.



&#8220;Oil demand data surprising on the positive side and the extension of the voluntary OPEC+ cuts until the end of June have supported prices,&#8221; said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.



&#8220;Brent will likely trade in an $80-90 per barrel range this year, with an end-June forecast of $86 per barrel.&#8221;



In Russia, exports are rising after Ukrainian drone attacks on the country&#8217;s oil infrastructure, pressuring prices.



&#8220;Attacks will likely reduce Russian crude runs by up to 300,000 barrels per day, in addition to scheduled maintenance closures,&#8221; JP Morgan analysts wrote.



&#8220;Lower primary runs, however, would lead to higher crude oil exports.&#8221;



Russia will increase oil exports through its western ports in March by almost 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), against a monthly plan for 2.15 million bpd.



Prices were also weighed down by uncertainty over U.S. interest rates ahead of this week&#8217;s Federal Reserve policy meeting.



(Reporting by Noah Browning in London and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Additional reporting by Paul Carsten in London; Editing by Mark Potter and David Goodman)

ZO2TST2SFBIXRI7CA7KFKOUIUI-1-1-1

Oil at highest since early November on brighter demand signals

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-466609" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/37OLJ2JEDJPEZHPKH67DSVTNQU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Angola&#8217;s President Joao Lourenco, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing September 3, 2018. Andy Wong/POOL Via REUTERS/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING, March 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Chinese President Xi Jinping said he would support Chinese firms that invest in Angola&#8217;s agriculture and manufacturing sectors, state media reported on Friday, as the African oil producing nation seeks help in diversifying its economy.



&#8220;The Chinese side is willing to work with Angola to implement key infrastructure projects and support strong Chinese companies to go to Angola to carry out various forms of cooperation,&#8221; Xi told visiting Angolan President Joao Lourenco at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.



Lourenco&#8217;s visit follows Angola&#8217;s announcement in December it would leave producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and agreements with China on cooperation.



Xi told Lourenco on Friday Chinese firms could &#8220;help Angola achieve agricultural modernisation, industrialisation and economic diversification,&#8221; the state media report said, part of Beijing&#8217;s long-term drive to deepen economic and political ties with Africa.



China has a vested interest in Angola&#8217;s quest to overhaul its economy because Luanda owes Chinese creditors just under $21 billion, World Bank data shows.



Lourenco, who is accompanied on this visit by his agriculture minister, needs funds to implement structural reforms to cut its reliance on oil, as Luanda does not have enough non-oil revenue sources to finance its transition.



In December, China and Angola signed an investment protection agreement, while Angolan firms from Dec. 25 have had tariff-free access to China&#8217;s massive consumer market across 98% of goods under a separate agreement.



On Friday, the two leaders also agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to the level of comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, allowing for greater trade and investment.



Chinese firms have invested close to $12 billion in Angola since it joined China&#8217;s Belt and Road Initiative in 2014, data from the American Enterprise Institute think tank shows, just under half of which went into the country&#8217;s energy sector.



The littoral state has plentiful reserves of base metals and ample agricultural resources, such as sugarcane, coffee, cotton and livestock, but they have been neglected compared to oil.



The International Monetary Fund on March 8 released its Executive Board&#8217;s assessment of Angola&#8217;s economy said &#8220;heavy dependence on the oil sector&#8221; put Luanda at a high risk of missing the 0.5% growth target the Fund forecast for 2023, as the IMF expects its oil sector to have shrunk by an annual 6.1% over last year.



(Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Barbara Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: Angola’s President Joao Lourenco, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing

China’s Xi willing to work with Angola as it moves on from oil

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-466091" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Q552JFWEBJNPVFQSJPW5CKIHNY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Farmers separate infected cocoa beans from a pile at a farm in San Pedro, western Ivory Coast August 12, 2010. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON/ACCRA, March 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Major African cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or cut processing because they cannot afford to buy beans, four trading sources said, meaning chocolate prices around the world are likely to soar.



Chocolate-makers have already increased prices to consumers, after three years of poor cocoa harvests, with a fourth expected, in the two countries that produce nearly 60% of the world&#8217;s cocoa.



Cocoa prices&nbsp;LCCc2&nbsp;have more than doubled over the last year, scaling numerous all-time highs.



&#8220;We need massive demand destruction to catch up with the supply destruction,&#8221; Tropical Research Services&#8217; Steve Wateridge, a world expert on cocoa, said.



Chocolate-makers cannot produce chocolate using raw cocoa and rely on processors to turn beans into butter and liquor that can be made into chocolate.



But the processors say they cannot afford to buy the beans.



State-controlled Ivorian bean processor Transcao, one of the country&#8217;s nine major plants, said it had stopped buying beans because of their price.



It said it was still processing from stock, but did not say what capacity it was running at. Two industry sources said the plant was almost idle.



They asked not to be named because they were not authorised to speak publicly on the issue.



One of the two sources said more major state run plants could shut soon in top grower Ivory Coast, which produces nearly half the world&#8217;s cocoa.



The same two sources said even global trader Cargill struggled to source beans for its major processing plant in Ivory Coast, halting operations for about a week last month. Cargill did not respond to a request for comment.



In No. 2 cocoa grower Ghana, most of its eight plants, including state-owned Cocoa Processing Company (CPC), have repeatedly suspended work for weeks since the season started in October, two separate industry sources said.



CPC said it is operating at about 20% of capacity because of the shortage of beans.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-disruption-at-the-farm-gate">DISRUPTION AT THE FARM GATE</h2>



The price rally has derailed a long-established mechanism for global cocoa trade, through which farmers sell beans to local dealers who sell them on to processing plants or global traders.



Those traders then sell beans or cocoa products &#8211; butter, powder and cocoa liquor &#8211; to global chocolate giants such as Nestle&nbsp;NESN.S, Hershey&nbsp;HSY.N&nbsp;and Mondelez&nbsp;MDLZ.O.



In normal times, the market is heavily regulated &#8211; traders and processors purchase beans from local dealers up to a year in advance at pre-agreed prices. Local regulators then set lower farmgate prices that farmers can charge for beans.



However, in times of shortage like this year, the system breaks down &#8211; local dealers often pay farmers a premium to the farmgate price to secure beans.



The dealers then sell the beans on the spot market at higher prices instead of delivering them at pre-agreed prices.



As global traders rush to purchase those beans at any price to meet their obligations with the chocolate firms, local processors are often left short of beans.



Ivorian and Ghanian authorities normally try to protect local plants by issuing them with cheap loans or by limiting volumes of beans that global traders can purchase.



This year, however, plants are not getting the cocoa they pre-ordered and cannot afford to buy at higher spot prices.



Already, chocolate-makers have raised prices. U.S. retail stores charged 11.6% more for chocolate products last year compared with 2022, data from market research firm Circana shows.



The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) expects global cocoa production will fall by 10.9% to 4.45 million metric tons this season.



Grindings &#8211; a measure of demand &#8211; will fall by 4.8% to 4.78 million as processors struggle to buy beans, and supply less butter at a higher price to chocolate-makers, which in turn raise prices.



The supply-demand mismatch will leave the market with a deficit of 374,000 tons this season, up from 74,000 tons last season, according to the ICCO.



This means processors and chocolate firms will have to draw on cocoa stocks to fully cover their needs. The ICCO expects global cocoa stocks to fall to their lowest in 45 years by the season end.



Wateridge of Tropical Research said the cocoa market could post another deficit next season based on the severity of bean disease in West Africa.



The market has not seen four successive years of deficit since the late 1960s, ICCO data shows.



(Reporting by Maytaal Angel; editing by Barbara Lewis)

FILE PHOTO: Farmers separate infected cocoa beans from a pile at a farm in San Pedro

African cocoa plants run out of beans as global chocolate crisis deepens

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-465729" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Euros, U.S. dollars, Canadian dollars, Russian rubles and Czech korunas lie on a table as banknotes.  Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As inflation loosens its grip in most economies, investors are closely monitoring interest rate decisions, with markets expecting a slew of rate cuts this year.



While rates in most economies are set to remain elevated in 2024, economists expect a mild rollback late this year, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in a recent report. Most central banks sharply hiked policy rates from early 2022 in a bid to stifle inflation.



China and Japan remain exceptions in the global tightening cycle, though Beijing’s rates have started to ease slightly, said the global intelligence firm. EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-united-states"><a></a>United States</h2>



U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year should inflation signals cooperate, but stopped short of giving a specific timeline.



Inflation as assessed by the Fed’s preferred gauge currently stands at an annual rate of 2.4%, remaining ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal. 



The Fed held rates steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% in its January meeting. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Euro zone</h2>



The European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won’t cut rates before June.



The central bank acknowledged that inflation was easing faster than it anticipated and lowered its annual inflation forecast from an average of 2.7% to 2.3%. The ECB has a 2% inflation target.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Switzerland</h2>



Swiss inflation in February rose 1.2% from a year ago, the lowest reading in almost two and a half years, fueling hopes that the Swiss National Bank could trim interest rates in its March 21 meeting.



The SNB’s current policy rate stands at 1.75%, and the central bank has an inflation target range of between 0% and 2%. According to LSEG, there’s a more than 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in March, which would take the SNB’s key rate down to 1.5%.



UBS expects the SNB to wait until the second quarter for its first key interest rate cut, while not ruling out the possibility of a cut this month.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Bank of Canada</h2>



In March, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. Its governor said that it was too early to consider a cut.



Canada’s inflation slowed to 2.9% in January, compared with a year ago. That’s a drop from December’s 3.4% and within the BOC’s target range of 1% to 3%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Turkey</h2>



Turkey’s central bank kept its interest rate steady at 45% in February, ending its tightening cycle after eight straight hikes, with many expecting it to hold for most of 2024. The country’s inflation currently stands at around 65%.



JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Australia</h2>



The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged in February at a 12-year high of 4.35%.



Nomura predicts the RBA will start cutting rates in August as inflation eases and unemployment rises. The firm said it expects the country to “narrowly avoid a recession.”



In a recent note, ANZ noted that Australia’s economy experienced a “continued slowdown” in the second half of 2023 as fourth-quarter GDP grew just 0.2% from the prior quarter. That comes after third-quarter GDP edged 0.3% higher from the previous three-month period.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>New Zealand</h2>



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate steady at 5.5% in its February meeting, forecasting that inflation will re-enter the 1% to 3% per year target band by September.



Auckland Savings Bank does not expect the RBNZ to start cutting the cash rate until November.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Indonesia</h2>



Indonesia’s central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting. 



While the Southeast Asian nation’s consumer price inflation is now within the Bank Indonesia’s targeted range of 1.5% to 3.5% for the year, Indonesia’s central bank governor is considering a 75 basis point cut only in the second semester of the year.



“We are still watching closely is about the global spillover&#8230; mainly of the impact of U.S. monetary policy direction,” Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo recently told CNBC’s JP Ong.



BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, expects the bank to lower the benchmark&nbsp;rate to 5% by the end of 2024, starting in the second half of the year in tandem with the U.S. and other developed market central banks “in order to not raise undue depreciatory pressures on the Indonesian rupiah.”



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Bank of Japan</h2>



Unlike its peers, economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year instead of cutting.



The BOJ is expected to move toward ending its negative interest rate policy by April, contingent on annual wage negotiations, said economists at Oxford Economics and Macquarie.&nbsp;



Spring wage negotiations are an important factor in whether Japan’s inflation has sustainably met the BOJ’s 2% target, a prerequisite for the BOJ to end its negative rate policy.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>South Korea&nbsp;</h2>



South Korea’s central bank in late February kept rates steady at 3.5%.



The BOK governor reportedly said that most board members still deem it “premature” to discuss any interest rate cuts while inflation is above target level.



The BOK could still be one of the first in Asia to cut rates, said Goldman Sachs senior Asia economist Goohoon Kwon, citing ongoing disinflation and subdued private consumption.



A strong rebound in exports driven by semiconductors due to the advent of AI will allow the BOK to be less constrained by U.S. monetary policy and inflation, Kwon said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>So who’s first?</h2>



“The Bank of Canada is my candidate to be the first to cut,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics told CNBC. He explained that Canada’s CPI, excluding shelter prices, is rising by just 1.7%. That’s below the central bank’s inflation target and Weinberg noted that all the prices the BOC can control in the economy are rising less than the inflation target mandates.



“2024 will be the year of the rate cut pivot,” Weinberg added.



But Asian central banks are unlikely to cut ahead of the Fed as a strong U.S. dollar means that most Asian currencies remain relatively weaker, said Morgan Stanley.



The potential for further depreciation could still lend some higher inflation risks to these countries, the investment bank’s economists said in a report.



“While inflation is coming off, in most of the region’s economies it has either just reached the target range or is still closing the gap to target range,” Morgan Stanley said.

107385510-1710163312883-gettyimages-1246952831-20090101230209-99-537362

2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here’s when the world’s central banks will budge

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



March 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks climbed to a seven-month high on Tuesday, while currencies languished, with investors awaiting a crucial U.S. inflation report for insights into the timing for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate cuts this year.



The MSCI emerging market stocks index&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;advanced 0.9% as of 5:30 a.m. ET (0930) GMT, hitting its highest level since August 2023 and on track for its fifth straight daily gain.



The currencies index&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was largely flat, after touching an over two-month high during the day.



U.S. consumer prices data, due later in the day, and producer prices on Thursday will help investors gauge the timing of the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut, seen in June as per a Reuters poll. The Fed&#8217;s March policy decision is due next week.



&#8220;We could be moving towards the point where both the Fed and ECB are ready to cut rates&#8230; an inline or weaker (CPI) print would reinforce our view of the June cut and be welcomed by the markets,&#8221; Mohit Kumar, European economist at Jefferies, said in a note.



The Russian rouble&nbsp;RUBUTSTN=MCX&nbsp;weakened slightly against the dollar and was seen trading in a narrow range, while South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;climbed slightly ahead of the U.S. data.



Among major developments, Vanke&#8217;s Hong Kong-listed shares 2202.HK jumped 10.3%, along with its bonds, after China&#8217;s No.2 property developer said the impact of a Moody&#8217;s ratings downgrade on financing activities was &#8220;controllable&#8221;, though some analysts remain concerned over its longer-term liquidity.



The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index&nbsp;.HSMPI&nbsp;logged its strongest one-day gain of 8.0% in six months, while the real estate sector&nbsp;.CSI000952&nbsp;climbed 5%. The Hang Seng index&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;advanced to a three-month high, gaining 3.1%.



Egypt&#8217;s benchmark stock index&nbsp;.EGX30&nbsp;shed over 1% after touching a record high on Monday on upbeat sentiment driven by financing from United Arab Emirates and the International Monetary Fund.



Meanwhile in Central and East Europe, data showed Czech adjusted retail sales excluding cars and motorcycles increased by 2.4% year-on-year in January, while a media report stated central bank Vice-Governor Eva Zamrazilova said Czech interest rate cuts of 25 or 50 basis points are acceptable and bigger cuts should not be considered.



The Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;was up 0.2% against the euro.



The Polish zloty has outperformed its CEE peers in 2024, gaining more than 1% this year, owing to accelerated rate cuts in the Czech Republic and Hungary.



Argentina&#8217;s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 80% from 100% previously on Monday.



(Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-458020" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold.jpg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(L) Oil pumpjacks and (R) gold bars
Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.



Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-central-bank-s-gold-rush"><a></a>Central bank’s gold rush</h2>



“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend:&nbsp;de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks&nbsp;that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.



That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated.&nbsp;



Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing&nbsp;bullion buying.



The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the&nbsp;World Gold Council reported in January.



“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A global recession?</h2>



Another trigger that could drive gold to $3,000 would be a “deep global recession” that could spur the U.S. Federal Reserves to cut rates rapidly.



“That means the brakes have been cut, not to 3%, but to 1% or lower – that will take us to $3,000,” Doshi said, noting that this is a low probability scenario.



Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.&nbsp;



The Fed benchmark interest rate has been between&nbsp;5.25% and 5.5%&nbsp;since July 2023, the highest since January 2001 when it shot to 6% following the dot-com bubble burst. Markets expect&nbsp;the Fed to cut&nbsp;rates in May or June.



Stagflation — an increasing inflation rate, a slowing economic growth and rising unemployment — could be another trigger, though Doshi said there’s a “very low probability” of such a scenario.



Gold is perceived as a safe haven and tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



These three potential triggers aside, Citi maintains that their base case for bullion is $2,150 in the second half of 2024, and the price of gold to average a little over $2,000 in the first half. A new record could be reached towards the end of 2024, Doshi added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Oil at $100?</h2>



Another wildcard scenario highlighted in Citi’s report was for oil prices to hit triple digits again.



The catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil producing regions, Doshi said.&nbsp;



The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has not hit oil production or exports, with the only significant impact being the Houthi attacks from Yemen on oil tankers and other ships traversing the Red Sea.



Major oil producer Iraq has been impacted by the conflict and any further escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ suppliers in the region, Citi said.



Recent developments show that tensions have been rising on the border between Israel and Lebanon, raising fears that the war in Gaza could spread elsewhere in the Middle East.



Doshi said Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela are vulnerable to supply disruptions, with steeper U.S. sanctions policy on Iran and Venezuela potentially on the cards.&nbsp;



Other geopolitical risks such as Russian oil supplies, should Ukraine attack Russian refineries with drones, cannot be ruled out, Citi’s analysts wrote. Doshi maintained that their base case for oil stands at around $75 per barrel for the year.



Global benchmark Brent’s&nbsp;April futures were trading at $83.56 a barrel, while the U.S.&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate&nbsp;March futures stood at $79.13 per barrel.

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Cocoa prices are soaring to record levels. What it means for consumers and why ‘the worst is still yet to come’

Oil at highest since early November on brighter demand signals

China’s Xi willing to work with Angola as it moves on from oil

African cocoa plants run out of beans as global chocolate crisis deepens

2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here’s when the world’s central banks will budge

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

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Economy

Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi

World Bank sounds alarm on ‘historical reversal’ of development for poorest nations

IMF head says higher US rates could become a worry if they persist

World Bank unveils new scorecard to measure accountability

US must boost Africa ties to secure key minerals, report says

Sub-Saharan Africa growth not enough to dent poverty, says World Bank

Stocks slip on Fed rate caution and geopolitical woes, currencies flat

Copper hits 14-month high on rate cut hopes and soft dollar

Half of adults globally are stressed about their finances, and inflation is a key reason

World Bank set to issue up to $1 bln in debut hybrid note this year

Cocoa prices are soaring to record levels. What it means for consumers and why ‘the worst is still yet to come’

Oil at highest since early November on brighter demand signals

China’s Xi willing to work with Angola as it moves on from oil

African cocoa plants run out of beans as global chocolate crisis deepens

2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here’s when the world’s central banks will budge

Stocks scale seven-month high, FX stalls with US inflation data in focus

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

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