The 2023–2024 El Niño-induced drought, regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in recorded history, has resulted in widespread droughts, flooding, and other natural disasters across the globe and in Southern Africa in particular. Meanwhile, East Africa recently experienced the worst recorded drought in the region in at least 70 years.
These disasters are getting worse with each passing year, exacerbating the effects of climate change on Africa, which is already affected disproportionately.
Agriculture is the primary channel through which climate change disrupts African economies, but it is also the sector with the biggest potential to lead adaptation to climate change. There is a real opportunity for Africa to better leverage its own resources to devise a robust response to the climate crisis.
Trade can be a huge part of the solution. A recent report on trends and drivers behind Africa’s agricultural trade performance explores the intricate relationship between climate change and trade. While climate change poses a threat to trade, there are numerous opportunities for win-win solutions. Trade can serve as a robust mechanism for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change, steering Africa toward its food security and sustainable development goals.
Optimization of scarce water resources through trade
Water is a critical factor in growing crops and putting food on the table across the globe. In fact, commodities traded globally embody specific quantities of water required to produce and export them. Therefore, trading with commodities is also trading with water virtually. While water is growing scarcer across the globe, and climate change is worsening this issue, trade provides opportunities to alleviate the pressures of future water scarcity on food production.
Virtual water trade — the water content embedded in traded agricultural products — can be strategically leveraged to transform food systems and bolster resilience to shocks such as droughts and floods. For instance, Africa could realign the production of “thirsty” commodities like millet, mangoes, beans, sorghum, and rice to water-rich regions, while drier nations focus on less water-intensive yet nutritionally essential foods, such as vegetables.
Complemented by investments in infrastructure, irrigation, and water management practices, trade in virtual water presents an opportunity for specialization and cooperation between water-rich and water-stressed nations to sustainably exploit Africa’s agriculture potential to transform intra-African trade and ensure the continent’s food security.
Minding Future Emission Intensity of African Food Trade
There is evidence to demonstrate the extent to which greenhouse gas emissions are embedded in trade flows and are likely to expand with increased trade. The key to tackling climate change and bolstering food systems is to produce smarter and trade better. There are innovations ready and waiting that can contribute to lowering the carbon footprint in the production and trading of commodities across Africa.
A key priority is to embrace artificial intelligence (AI) and remote sensing innovations for better tracking and measuring of greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions tracking in real-time and across land cover and land use with sufficient continent-wide coverage provides granular understanding of emissions dynamics required for informed decisions to support mitigation strategies and shift toward more sustainable and climate-friendly agrifood systems.
Prioritizing Technology Innovations and Infrastructure
Africa has been experiencing the third-fastest growth in agricultural exports, after the Americas and Asia, and the second-fastest growth in imports, after Asia. In years to come, the continent will have an increasingly important role in feeding the world.
As the continent’s agriculture sector expands, the threat of climate change must be at the forefront of our minds. There is an urgent need for governments to invest in technology innovations and infrastructure to address resource scarcity, along with investments in emissions-lowering innovations. Mainstreaming these measures into Africa’s trade policy frameworks to ensure that trade can play its role as a strategy to adapt to climate change will pay dividends – many times over – in generations to come.
