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JOHANNESBURG, July 24 (Reuters) – South African inflation slowed in June, statistics agency data showed on Wednesday, clearing the path for the central bank to cut rates at its next meeting, economists said.
Headline consumer inflation stood at 5.1% year-on-year in June, compared to 5.2% in May, Statistics South Africa said, in line with the prediction made by economists polled by Reuters.
Inflation has remained above 5% for 10 consecutive months Statistics South Africa data showed, while the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) prefers it to be at the midpoint of its 3%-6% target band.
The slow rate of disinflation has meant the central bank has kept its main lending rate unchanged at 8.25% for more than a year.
Isaac Matshego, senior economist at local financial firm, Nedbank, said they now see the SARB cutting rates at their next meeting in September.
“Today’s figure affirms our view that the SARB will cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 8% at its meeting in September followed by a similar reduction in November,” said Matshego.
A key concern for the SARB has been high food and services prices, but June data shows these have both come down to 4.6% in June from 4.7% in May, just shy of the midpoint.
David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics said lower food and services inflation gives impetus to the central bank to start cutting rates in September, agreeing that a 25 basis point cut would be acceptable.
Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, came in at 4.5% for June, Statistics South Africa added.
(Writing by Kopano Gumbi and Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Alex Richardson and Angus MacSwan)