<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="706" height="703" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Africa-in-the-Global-Village-Burna-Boy.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-460345" style="width:840px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Africa-in-the-Global-Village-Burna-Boy.jpg 706w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Africa-in-the-Global-Village-Burna-Boy-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Africa-in-the-Global-Village-Burna-Boy-90x90.jpg 90w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" /></figure>



Hidden in plain sight, Africans are in the thick of the kind of history-making that will define the 21st century.



In 2024, Africa presents a paradox.&nbsp; Its population is growing fast, but its&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/178bdc1c-256b-475b-b7c1-a9f68df9f933?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8">economy</a>&nbsp;is growing slow.&nbsp; Conflicts are expanding not contracting.&nbsp; And yet its influence in the world is growing faster than ever.&nbsp; How come?



This is a result of two global trends that will help shape the world in the 21st&nbsp;century.



One is familiar to everyone and much discussed by analysts and the media: the geopolitical shift to a multipolar world.&nbsp; This gives African nations greater agency in the world, if they choose and are able to use it.&nbsp; Many African governments rightly say they want to pick and choose their own international partners, maintain good relations with all corners of the world; and the powers, old and new, great and middling, are beating a path to their door, keen to get their votes in the UN and their support for various international causes, from climate change to ‘civilizational values’, from human rights to national rights.



But it is the second trend that is equally significant and largely happening under the radar: the spread of Africans across the globe in the 21st&nbsp;century, the ever-growing African diaspora that is beginning to make its presence and influence felt in a growing number of places. When we look back in 50 or 100 years people will say: yes, that made a major difference to the world.



It is, of course, scarcely a new trend. &nbsp;From the beginning of humanity, it was the migration of homo sapiens out of Africa that began the human trajectory on which we are still engaged.&nbsp; In ancient and classical times, African influences can be found in Greece, Rome, the Arab world and beyond. The biggest migration was not voluntary but forced, through the trans-Atlantic slave trade, which took millions of Africans by brute force to the Caribbean and Americas, in a wholly subordinate role from which it took them over a hundred years to recover equal rights.



In the 19th&nbsp;and 20th&nbsp;centuries, migration flowed the other way, from Europe to Africa, but not as workers – as colonists, settlers, merchants and administrators.&nbsp; With independence in the second half of the 20th&nbsp;century, that flow reversed.&nbsp; Many Europeans returned home, and a growing number of Africans followed them.&nbsp; The 20th&nbsp;century also saw the most remarkable growth in Africa’s population, from around 140 million in 1900 to over 1.4 billion today (according to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/">latest estimates</a>), made possible by the transformation of economic and health conditions on the continent.



All such bursts in population growth elsewhere have given rise to outward migration.&nbsp; Since the 19th&nbsp;century, major migrations from Ireland, China, India, Armenia, Lebanon, Palestine, and of Jewish people from many countries have all had significant economic and sometimes political effects, both on the countries of origin and the countries of destination.&nbsp; People are like water: they will go wherever they need to; and if they cannot make a living in one place, they will move to another where they can.



The great African migration that is gathering impetus will have a similarly profound impact.&nbsp;&nbsp; Like previous migrants, Africans bring with them their own particular skills and characteristics.&nbsp; They are enormously enterprising, creative and connected – to each other and to the continent.&nbsp; Most visible to the rest of the world up to now has been African creativity, in music, the arts, film and literature, and achievement in the realm of sport.&nbsp; Africa is already a global force in the world of music, its beats setting a new standard for music elsewhere.&nbsp; This impact feeds back to the countries of origin, not just as remittances, but as economic and cultural influence.&nbsp; The rapidly expanding Nigerian diaspora is especially influential in business and culture, veritably a force to be reckoned with – as Nigeria’s presidential candidates recognised in the run-up to the last election.&nbsp; If Bola Tinubu’s new government can create a country and an economy that people are willing to invest in, Nigeria could begin to realise its potential as one of the world’s new ‘middle powers.’&nbsp; But for now it remains a big ‘if’.



The opportunities for them certainly exist overseas.&nbsp; The Old World is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.oecd.org/economy/ageing-inclusive-growth/">ageing</a>.&nbsp; The demand for labour in Europe, North America and Japan – and soon in China – is growing, a demand that young people from Africa (and Latin America) would be happy to meet.



But the obstacles to them doing so are severe.&nbsp; On top of the residue of racism left by the slave trade and European colonisation, voters in many prosperous countries are becoming less secure and more insular, reflected in the rise of nativist right-wing movements that seek to exclude foreigners and reduce or even stop immigration altogether, despite the shortage of workers.&nbsp; Unlike the European colonists of the 19th&nbsp;century, African migrants cannot force their way in.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;But they will prove hard to stop if the employment opportunities exist.



What does this mean for Africa?&nbsp; It means that at the level of people, even if not in trade or finance, Africa’s weight and influence in the world is rising.&nbsp; Many of the migrants seek to assimilate.&nbsp; Some – in the US and UK certainly – go into politics and make their voice heard.&nbsp; But most also retain close links with their families and countries of origin.



What is striking is how widespread African communities have become.&nbsp; In Jonny Pitts’ phrase, there is a whole culture of&nbsp;<a href="https://afropean.com/">Afropean</a>&nbsp;communities across Europe and into Russia.&nbsp; Who knew there were 16,000 Africans studying in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/africans-in-ukraine-does-the-world-still-care/">Ukraine</a>&nbsp;until they fled with the outbreak of war in 2022?&nbsp; As Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie describes, there is a big community in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/apr/15/americanah-chimamanda-ngozi-adichie-review">America</a>.&nbsp; And in&nbsp;<a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2022/05/23/africans-in-china-see-the-country-as-a-dreamland-accidental-destination-migration%20/">China</a>, an African community of several hundred thousand persists despite the hostility Africans faced during Covid.



Everywhere, these communities will leave an indelible mark on the world and carry a lasting significance at home and overseas.

Africa-in-the-Global-Village-Burna-Boy

Africa in the global village: Notes on some epochal trends

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-459065" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-1166232739-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Mthuli Ncube, Zimbabwe&#8217;s finance minister, sits in the audience during a plenary session on day two of the 28th World Economic Forum (WEF) on Africa in Cape Town, South Africa, on Thursday, Sept. 5, 2019. The World Economic Forum on Africa meeting runs from 4-6 September. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Paradoxically, climate change impacts are more pronounced in the low-carbon emitting countries, with events beyond the capacity of communities and countries to adapt. For instance, Africa’s carbon footprint is relatively small compared to other regions. In 2020, Africa’s total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) stood around 1.5 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, which represents about 3% of global emissions (<a href="http://www.unfccc.int">www.unfccc.int</a>).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-climate-change-mitigation-and-adaptation">Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation</h2>



Globally, there is consensus that upscaling the climate action agenda requires that the means of the implementation (MoI), namely finance, technology transfer, and capacity building be given utmost priority hence, the amplified calls for Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to accelerate ambition through their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (<a href="http://www.unfccc.int">www.unfccc.int</a>). 



Following increased scientific evidence pointing to fossil fuels as the major driver of climate change, there were increased calls for a global-phase out thereof at the just ended Twenty-Eighth Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP28) held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. However, most Global South Parties advocate for a gradual ‘phasing down’ (just transition as opposed to an outright ‘phase out’) through the deployment of renewables to replace traditional fossil fuels. 



Developing country Parties argue that the envisaged transition requires decision makers to be mindful of historical disparities, suffered impacts, and varying responsibilities, and to ensure a fair distribution of the efforts and benefits of this transition.



Inevitably, given the complexity of the climate crisis and energy transition nexus, it is necessary to work towards building a shared vision of renewable energy deployment that builds upon exemplary cases, standardizes processes, improves legislation, and proposes instruments that support and ensure local development. Africa and other developing countries dependent on the exploitation of fossil fuels, should therefore:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Continue to call for the use of these resources using cleaner technologies and for a ‘gradual phase out’ to allow adequate time to adjust social and economic systems and raise concern on double standards by some developed countries that are reverting to fossil fuels in wake of the persisting crisis in Eastern Europe.</li>



<li>Amplify calls for availing of more funding to Global South countries for renewable energy and energy efficiency, as well as for the development of sustainable technologies and sustainable food systems.</li>
</ul>



Evidence shows that Africa has enormous potential for development of renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind. The continent is endowed with some of the best solar resources in the world, with parts of North Africa receiving an average of over 2 000 hours of sunshine per year. Africa also has excellent wind resources, particularly along its long coastline. In essence, developing renewable energy sources in Africa could help to reduce the continent’s reliance on fossil fuels and reduce GHG emissions as well as creating new opportunities for economic development, job creation and poverty reduction (<a href="http://www.climatechampions.unfccc.int">www.climatechampions.unfccc.int</a>).



Forests of Africa such as the Congo Basin rainforest, the Guinea-Congo forest, the East African Coastal Forest, the Miombo woodlands and the Sudanian Savanna have a significant role in the global carbon cycle (carbon sinks) hence, have potential to play a major role in carbon trading. Despite this huge potential, the current value of carbon trading in Africa is relatively low, contributing a paltry 2% on the global carbon markets of trading taking place mostly in the voluntary carbon market (VCM). 



The African continent is estimated to have potential to reduce emissions by over 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year by 2030. By reducing deforestation and forest degradation as well as upscaling sustainable forest management, Africa could generate carbon credits that could be sold on the carbon market. However, the realisation of this potential hinges on a number of factors, including the development of a formal carbon market, enforcement of regulations and the availability of funding as well as the development of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies (<a href="http://www.carboncredits.com">www.carboncredits.com</a>; <a href="http://www.climatechampions.unfccc.int">www.climatechampions.unfccc.int</a>).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-climate-financing-landscape">Climate Financing Landscape</h2>



Global landscape for climate finance estimated that 2021 climate finance flows amounted to US$850-940 billion, while Global Carbon Credit market was valued at US$760 billion (and is expected to grow by over 21% during the period 2023-2028) (Climate Policy Initiative, 2022). The global green bond market issuance reached US$1.2 trillion in the first half of 2023, up from US$1 trillion in the same period in 2022, signifying growing awareness of the need to address climate change (Climate Bonds Initiative, 2023). By implication, the growth in the climate finance landscape, represents a significant increase in the amount of capital raised for green initiatives, which include renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transport, and sustainable water and wastewater management.



Article 2.1 (c) and Article 9 of the Paris Agreement highlight the need for “finance flows consistent with a pathway toward low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development” (<a href="http://www.unfccc.int">www.unfccc.int</a>). At least US$4.35 trillion is required annually by 2030 to meet global climate objectives (Climate Policy Initiative, 2022). Mobilisation of adequate and predictable financial flows persistently presents a major impediment towards attainment of the Paris Agreement targets across most Global South countries; Zimbabwe included. 



While evidence points to a significant increase in climate finance in recent years, it is still far short of the estimated needs and priorities. In 2019, the total climate finance flows to developing countries were around US$70 billion against an estimated annual requirement of US$100-300 billion. The amount of equity financing for climate change in Africa is much lower than in other regions and the International Finance Corporation (IFC, 2018) estimates that this may reach US$2.5 trillion by 2040. 



In addition, the majority of climate finance flows are in the form of loans, rather than grants, which can reinforce debt burdens for developing countries. There is also lack of transparency and accountability in the way climate finance is allocated and disbursed (Brazier, 2017). On the other hand, the current financial architecture and governance arrangements under the Paris Agreement are yet to support countries in averting, minimizing, and addressing climate related loss and damages which are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the coming decades (<a href="http://www.unfccc.int">www.unfccc.int</a>).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-green-financing-for-africa">Green Financing for Africa</h2>



Most, if not all, developing country Parties lack adequate financial resources to accelerate their low-carbon and climate-resilient developmental actions. This is mostly due to their low per capita income, unstable economies, constrained fiscal space, lack of institutional capacity and structural weaknesses (<a href="http://www.thecommonwealth.org">www.thecommonwealth.org</a>) which militate against the desired forward thrust towards a resilient and green growth pathway, thus depriving the potential to harness the powerful synergies between adaptation, growth and development. 



The protracted debates around climate financing at the annual COP Meetings under the auspices of the UNFCCC, the non-fulfilment of pledges made by developed country Parties as well as impediments around access to the available climate finance, all point to the dire need for a paradigm shift in approach by spurring proactiveness among developing countries to combat the effects of climate change. This entails leveraging innovative financing instruments to crowd in private climate financing in Africa (blended finance).



Africa’s private investors ought to recognise that climate financing is not only an environmental issue, but is also a developmental issue that embraces economic and social transformation in the quest for sustainable development. Therefore, climate-allied financial instruments guarantee returns on the investor as well as on the continent. 



Green climate financing has been on an upward spiral in Africa in recent years, with the goal of supporting projects that help reduce emissions, increase resilience to climate change, and improve livelihoods e.g. African Development Bank’s Climate Action Plant and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) financed “Accelerating Renewable Energy Integration and Sustainable Energy (AREISE)” project in Kenya. 



The success of Africa’s Green Transition process is anchored on the combined efforts of the public and private sectors, with a strong collaboration with international development partners towards mobilizing the required climate financial resources ensuring that all investments are environmentally sustainable, whilst delivering the desired economic and social benefits for all. Africa requires at least US$52.7 billion annually to advance climate action, yet current annual spending on adaptation is just around US$11.4 billion (GCA, 2022).



An assortment of innovative mechanisms could help increase sustainable green financing in Africa and typical examples include:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Use of blended finance, which combines public and private financing to support projects that have both social and environmental benefits (GCA, 2022);</li>



<li>Climate bonds, which can be used to finance projects that reduce GHG emissions or increase resilience to climate change. Functioning bond markets, investment funds (green bond funds) can provide a good example of how to draw in institutional investors and such funds should be replicated and scaled up to incentivize issuers to generate a sufficient supply of green assets to finance green projects (<a href="http://www.investopedia.com">www.investopedia.com</a>);</li>



<li>Equity financing, which can be used to fund green initiatives such as renewable energy projects, sustainable agriculture, and energy efficiency improvements. Despite the perceived risks, equity financing has a number of advantages over other types of financing, including lower borrowing costs, more flexibility in terms of repayment and the ability to attract long-term investors.</li>



<li>Establishment of Green banks, which are financial institutions that exclusively invest in green projects; and</li>



<li>Carbon pricing mechanisms (carbon markets), such as emissions trading systems or carbon taxes, could be used to raise revenue for sustainable development. Recent efforts to develop regional carbon markets, such as the African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), could help to address the current challenges bedevilling carbon trading on the African continent. In addition, Africa’s abundant renewable energy resources could make it a net exporter of carbon credits, providing a steady stream of revenue for sustainable development projects. Zimbabwe has made strides in developing a regulatory framework for carbon trading, administered through the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, which is beginning to bear fruits as many stakeholders have expressed interest to participate in the carbon markets.</li>
</ul>



In conclusion, sustainable green financing, being a critical component of green industrialisation, therefore presents an opportunity for developing countries to leap frog to higher levels of development through transitioning to low-carbon and resource-efficient economies. By evolving to low-carbon economies, there will be a growing demand for green technologies and services, thus developing countries stand to benefit from this transition by developing new industries and creating new jobs. Green industrialisation can help reduce poverty and inequality by providing access to clean energy, clean water and other basic services in a way enhancing prospects of shaping a world that is sustainable, inclusive and prosperous for all.

Day Two Of The 28th World Economic Forum on Africa

Climate change and financing Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-459062" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GettyImages-184386374-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Trade ministers from around the world are convening at the end of February in Abu Dhabi for the 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization. The event is a biennial opportunity for the WTO’s 164 members to meet at the highest level to review the functioning of the multilateral trading system and decide on its future.



The Ministerial Conference comes at a moment where the global economy is in a fragile state, with the World Bank projecting a decade of historically low growth ahead of just 2% annually. Trade – which has long been a driver of growth and poverty eradication, having helped 1 billion people lift themselves out of destitution in recent decades – is facing strong headwinds as protectionist forces mount. With leaders in many countries questioning the value of participating in a globalized world economy, the growth of geopolitical-driven protectionism threatens to limit the gains of globalization.



Against this backdrop, it is not an overstatement to say the conference in Abu Dhabi will be a critical moment in determining the future of global trade. As countries re-shore and friend-shore their value chains because of legitimate national security concerns, it is essential for ministers to reshape the current global trade system to prevent these trends from resulting in severe fragmentation, which could cost the global economy as much as <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/16/Confronting-fragmentation-where-it-matters-most-trade-debt-and-climate-action">7% of GDP</a>, according to the IMF.



WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has been acutely aware of the importance of the moment and has <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news23_e/dgno_24aug23_e.htm">appealed</a> for the need to “be ready to roll up our sleeves and work in Abu Dhabi&#8221;.



But what would this work need to look like to make a real difference?



On the agenda will be efforts to advance international trade and reform the WTO itself, such as eliminating subsidies that encourage overfishing, extending the moratorium on duties on cross-border e-commerce, and restoring the system for settling trade disputes.



Yet, as important as these issues are, addressing them individually – with success uncertain, given the need for consensus to forge an agreement – may have at best a marginal impact on global trade. The necessary decision to admit two new members, Timor Leste and Comoros, into the WTO also cannot be considered significant progress if important topics are yet again kicked down the road.



Leaders in Abu Dhabi will need to be ambitious and focus on solving the underlying challenges ailing the trade system. They will need to address two factors that have enabled deglobalization to take hold despite the overall benefits trade has delivered over the past three decades: First, that trade is seen as being misaligned with global priorities; and second, that gains from trade have not been equitably distributed within and between countries.



Strengthening the trade system should first and foremost mean expanding the trade agenda beyond delivering efficiencies. Instead, trade needs to advance climate action and social inclusion through multilateral commitments against a “race to the bottom” on environment, labour and consumer standards. Participating in global value chains can help the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies, such as solar panels or drought-resistant seeds. The broader the benefits delivered by trade, the more firmly it will be aligned with global priorities such as the Sustainable Development Goals. This, in turn, will enable trade to engender more trust of governments and citizens as they see the real value of it. Trade can thus be “fenced off” from geopolitical rivalry rather than disrupted for near-term political wins.



Here, inspiration can be taken from the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (ACFTA), which aims to create a single market for goods and services on the continent and facilitate the free movement of people. Its Protocol on Investment is designed to support the continent’s green transition by promoting investment in green sectors, encouraging incentives for low-carbon investments, and developing green investment standards.



Secondly, more inclusive trade mechanisms must be developed. <a>In particular, least-developed countries </a>with structural constraints such as fragile institutions, weak markets and a limited knowledge base, face difficulties taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by globalization. Between 2011 and 2020, exports of goods and services from least-developed countries contracted, and their share in global exports <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news21_e/ddgag_16nov21_e.htm">stagnated</a>. What little economic growth has taken place has in most cases failed to trickle down to the poor.



More public-private consultations centred on the Global South are needed to ensure that multilateral trade policies prioritize the sustainable development of countries with the least economic power.



Trade-restrictive measures based on legitimate national security concerns is likely to remain a feature of global trade. To improve transparency, certainty and mutual trust, such measures must be ring-fenced, meaning focused, proportionate and time-bound.



The aspiration of an expanded and rebalanced global trade agenda is not something that can be achieved easily in times when trust is being eroded by rising geopolitical rivalry. But if ministers leave Abu Dhabi with little more than symbolic achievements, an opportunity will have been lost to strengthen a system of economic interdependence that has delivered immense, albeit imperfect, benefits. The alternative – a more fragmented, protectionist global economy – will make everyone worse off and will be a missed opportunity to strengthen collective action on the very environmental, economic and societal issues most countries care about.



Nicolai Ruge is Lead, Geopolitics and Trade, at the World Economic Forum. This piece draws on the Forum’s report <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/shaping-cooperation-in-a-fragmenting-world/">Shaping Cooperation in a Fragmenting World</a>.



Danny Quah is Dean and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Global Connections China

Shifting the course of Global Trade at 13th Ministerial Conference

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="663" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-820x663.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-458475" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-820x663.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-300x243.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-111x90.jpg 111w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-768x621.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-1536x1242.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/EM-photo1-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elna Moolman, Head: SA macroeconomic research at Standard Bank South Africa</figcaption></figure>



The national budget indeed favoured fiscal continuity and consolidation (over any pre-election populist decisions), as anticipated, and in contrast with the consensus forecasts for sustained and significant fiscal deterioration.



Government intends to make a larger, immediate withdrawal from the gold and foreign exchange contingency reserve account (GFECRA) than generally expected. This is essentially the unrealised profits on SA’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, typically from rand depreciation over time. It plans to use R100 billion from the GFECRA in FY24/25, and R25 billion in each of FY25/26 and FY26/27.



This is reducing government’s borrowing requirement and therefore its debt burden. However, it was disappointing that only guiding principles on how the funds will be used were provided in the Budget, with (only) an undertaking that it will eventually be “formalised through legislation”. The guiding principles in the Budget are pragmatic, but we would’ve preferred the GFECRA only being used once its use is legislated, to ensure that future use will remain prudent.



Nevertheless, despite this disappointment (of using GFECRA before its longer-term use has been legislated) and persistent risks (to both the near-term and medium-term spending and revenue forecasts), the fiscal prognosis is at least somewhat better than investors expected. The Budget confirms government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. Therefore, financial markets are likely to react positively to the Budget. While there might be a strong initial response to better-than-expected fiscal and funding metrics, this may partly unwind as investor concern about the aforementioned factors (upside spending risks and downside revenue risks) persists.

EM photo1 1

Fiscal discipline, R150bn windfall to reduce SA’s debt burden

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-457759" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo credit: WFP/Simon Pierre Diouf</figcaption></figure>



Nearly ten years after Africa’s leaders&nbsp;<a href="https://au.int/sites/default/files/documents/31247-doc-malabo_declaration_2014_11_26.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reiterated</a>&nbsp;their “resolve to ending hunger and improving nutrition,” there is still much to be done in the fight against an unprecedented continental&nbsp;<a href="https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-emergencies/world/africa-hunger-crisis-100-million-struggling-to-eat" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">food crisis</a>.



The meeting of our leaders in Addis Ababa at the&nbsp;<a href="https://au.int/en/summit/37" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">African Union Summit</a>&nbsp;this month, therefore, takes place against dire, if not entirely unprecedented, circumstances.



For instance, my own country of Sierra Leone is among the most exposed to the escalating impacts of climate change. These changes in the climate – from unpredictable rainfall to rising temperatures – disrupt agricultural yields and food systems at large.



These challenges arise at a critical time when&nbsp;<a href="https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000153832/download/?_ga=2.1752049.1771678112.1707288571-434489079.1701945362" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">over 50 percent of the households</a>&nbsp;in Sierra Leone are grappling with food insecurity, making them highly susceptible to any additional disturbances in food supply chains. Concurrently, the depreciation of our currency has amplified our national debt, constraining the government&#8217;s financial capacity to invest in effective solutions to address these challenges.



Despite the hurdles, and by harnessing Africa’s new membership in the G20, our leaders can turn commitments into action, by removing global structural barriers hindering the fight against hunger and by transforming food systems across the continent.



To begin with, this means delivering on existing plans drawn up by continental leaders to tackle hunger and malnutrition challenges.



Agreements such as the 2014&nbsp;<a href="https://www.resakss.org/sites/default/files/Malabo%20Declaration%20on%20Agriculture_2014_11%2026-.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Malabo Declaration</a>&nbsp;and the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP), the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/2023/09/08/the_african_leaders_nairobi_declaration_on_climate_change-rev-eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nairobi Declaration</a>&nbsp;proposed at the 2023 Africa Climate Summit, and the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/2023/01/27/dakar_ii_declaration_food_sovereignty_and_resilience_.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dakar Declaration</a>&nbsp;agreed last year, demonstrate Africa’s strong legacy in building frameworks to address hunger and malnutrition. However, the actual implementation of these plans has frequently fallen short of expectations, highlighting a critical gap between ambitious policy formulation and effective action.



In light of this, African governments must allocate 10 percent of their budgets to agriculture and development to fulfill their commitment made under the CAADP to revive agricultural growth and address mounting food insecurity challenges, particularly amid changing climate conditions.



Africa&#8217;s small-scale farmers, despite being so vulnerable to climate-related risks, hold immense potential in feeding a growing population. Roughly 33 million smallholder farms contribute up to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ifad.org/thefieldreport/#:~:text=In%20Africa%2C%20there%20are%20an,food%20production%20and%20reduce%20poverty" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">70 percent</a>&nbsp;of the continent’s food supply yet receive just a fraction of the finance needed to adapt to a changing climate. Hence, funding should ensure that they are not left behind in addressing the escalating issue of hunger on the continent.



And while 10 percent seems a large figure, the ripple effects of such an investment would extend far beyond merely combating hunger and malnutrition. Better nutrition is essential for improving access to and the quality of education, which is the focus of this month’s AU meetings. By addressing hunger, Africa can improve education for our next generation, while providing a viable pathway to lift communities out of poverty.



Secondly, Africa’s leaders must actively seek much-needed global collaboration to address food insecurity while securing relief from mounting debt burdens.



Having&nbsp;<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/09/african-union-g20-world-leaders/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">permanently joined</a>&nbsp;the G20, the African Union must capitalize on this year’s meetings to drive concerted global efforts to address hunger, particularly by relieving the continent’s pressing debt burden to redirect funds towards urgent humanitarian needs and to make investments to boost sustainable economic growth.



President Lula of Brazil, who assumed the presidency of the G20 for this year, is a noted ally in the fight against hunger. Recognized for his efforts with the World Food Prize in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSJOE75L050/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2011</a>,&nbsp;he has already expressed his commitment to establishing an Alliance against poverty and hunger. This is welcomed &#8211; we urgently need a consolidated global effort &#8211; a ‘plan’ to drive the fight to end hunger for good.



Africa’s hunger levels are also inextricably linked to a deteriorating fiscal landscape. In Sierra Leone, consumer inflation stands at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIEPCH@WEO/SLE?zoom=SLE&amp;highlight=SLE" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 20 percent</a>, while government debt is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/SLE?zoom=SLE&amp;highlight=SLE" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more than 80 percent</a>&nbsp;of our country’s GDP, vastly limiting the ability of citizens and the government to navigate the unprecedented food crisis.



African leaders must therefore use the AU Summit to set the tone for the rest of the year, placing the global food crisis at the top of their international agenda. This also includes this year’s COP29 climate talks, given that 17 out&nbsp;<a href="https://www.uneca.org/stories/17-out-of-the-20-countries-most-threatened-by-climate-change-are-in-africa%2C-but-there-are#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20report,health%2C%20productivity%20and%20food%20security." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">of the 20</a>&nbsp;countries most threatened by climate change are in Africa and considering the impact of climate change on food systems and nutrition.



Thirdly, in moving to tackle food insecurity across the continent, Africa’s leaders must adopt a holistic, “all of government” approach if we are to make progress by the end of the decade.



Our food systems present a complex web of challenges: in addition to being a source of nutrition and livelihoods, food production is a primary source of environmental destruction, causing up to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/cop26-agricultural-expansion-drives-almost-90-percent-of-global-deforestation/en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">90 percent</a>&nbsp;of deforestation and around a&nbsp;<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">quarter</a>&nbsp;of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally.



To balance the trade-offs between boosting productivity and preserving the environment, governments must adopt a holistic approach, recognizing the impact of food systems transformation beyond hunger levels alone. In Sierra Leone, the Presidential Council led by H.E President Bio brings together government officials, farmers, researchers, and civil society members, and serves as a pivotal platform for navigating the complex trade-offs in the battle to end hunger.



Africa&#8217;s leaders have laid down a substantial framework over recent decades for addressing hunger and malnutrition on the continent. Now, given that a third of the world’s youth will be African by 2050, they must build on this legacy with bold action to save lives now, build resilience and secure a prosperous and sustainable future for the upcoming generations.

NER_20190729_WFP-Simon_Pierre_Diouf_7227

Commitments don’t grow crops: why Africa needs action to tackle hunger once and for all

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-820x547.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-456384" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/The-Elders.jpeg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Written by: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Mary Robinson, former President of Ireland, and Chair of The Elders</li>



<li>Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom</li>



<li>Annie Lennox, Singer-songwriter and political activist</li>



<li>Charles Oppenheimer, grandson of J. Robert Oppenheimer</li>



<li>Ban Ki-moon, Former UN Secretary-General and Deputy Chair of The Elders</li>



<li>Sir Richard Branson, Co-founder, Virgin Group</li>



<li>Christoph Heusgen, Chair of the Munich Security Conference</li>
</ul>



Our world is in grave danger. We face a set of threats that put all humanity at risk. Our leaders are not responding with the wisdom and urgency required.    



The impact of these threats is already being seen: a rapidly changing climate, a pandemic that killed millions and cost trillions, wars in which the use of nuclear weapons has been openly raised. &nbsp;



There could be worse to come. Some of these threats jeopardise the very existence of life on earth. We do not yet know how significant the emerging risks associated with Artificial Intelligence will be.&nbsp;&nbsp;



We are at a precipice. &nbsp;



The signatories of this letter call on world leaders to work together to address these existential threats more decisively. We welcome people of all communities, generations, and political views to join us in asking for courageous decision-making &#8211; for the sake of our common future. &nbsp;



The knowledge and resources to address these challenges exist. But too many of our leaders lack the political will or capability to take decisive action. They seek short-term fixes over long-term solutions.  &nbsp;



In a year when half the world’s adult population face elections, we urge all those seeking office to take a bold new approach. We need long-view leadership from decision-makers who understand the urgency of the existential threats we face, and believe in our ability to overcome them. &nbsp;



Long-view leadership means showing the determination to resolve intractable problems not just manage them, the wisdom to make decisions based on scientific evidence and reason, and the humility to listen to all those affected. Long-view leaders must have the moral strength to address both current concerns and long-term risks, often at the expense of vested interests.  &nbsp;



Such values should be common to all political leaders. But they are woefully missing in so many. We need leaders, women and men, who consistently demonstrate the courage to:  &nbsp;



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Think beyond short-term political cycles and deliver solutions for both current and future generations.  &nbsp;</li>



<li>Recognise that enduring answers require compromise and collaboration for the good of the whole world.  &nbsp;</li>



<li>Show compassion for all people, designing sustainable policies which respect that everyone is born free and equal in dignity and rights. &nbsp;</li>



<li>Uphold the international rule of law and accept that durable agreements require transparency and accountability.   &nbsp;</li>



<li>Commit to a vision of hope in humanity’s shared future, not play to its divided past. &nbsp;</li>
</ol>



These principles of long-view leadership can inform urgent changes in policy. Governments can get to work now to agree how to finance the transition to a safe and healthy future powered by clean energy, relaunch arms control talks to reduce the risk of nuclear war, save millions of lives by concluding an equitable pandemic treaty, and start to build the global governance needed to make AI a force for good, not a runaway risk. &nbsp;



As leaders prepare to gather in New York in September for the UN Summit of the Future, it is time to change direction. The biggest risks facing us cannot be tackled by any country acting alone. Yet when nations work together, these challenges can all be addressed, for the good of us all. &nbsp;



Despite the seriousness of these existential threats, hope remains. Our best future can still lie ahead of us. We call on leaders to take the long view, and show the courage to lead us to that better future.

The-Elders

Open letter calling on world leaders to show long-view leadership on existential threats

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="235" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-820x235.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-454379" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-820x235.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-300x86.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-160x46.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-768x220.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-1536x440.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BLOG-2099x600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">X-poser/Adobe Stock</figcaption></figure>



AI will affect almost 40 percent of jobs around the world, replacing some and complementing others. We need a careful balance of policies to tap its potential



We are on the brink of a technological revolution that could jumpstart productivity, boost global growth and raise incomes around the world. Yet it could also replace jobs and deepen inequality.



The rapid advance of artificial intelligence has captivated the world, causing both excitement and alarm, and raising important questions about its potential impact on the global economy. The net effect is difficult to foresee, as AI will ripple through economies in complex ways. What we can say with some confidence is that we will need to come up with a set of policies to safely leverage the vast potential of AI for the benefit of humanity.



Reshaping the Nature of Work



In&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Gen-AI-Artificial-Intelligence-and-the-Future-of-Work-542379?cid=bl-com-SDNEA2024001">a new analysis</a>, IMF staff examine the potential impact of AI on the global labor market. Many studies have predicted the likelihood that jobs will be replaced by AI. Yet we know that in many cases AI is likely to complement human work. The IMF analysis captures both these forces.



The findings are striking: almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI. Historically, automation and information technology have tended to affect routine tasks, but one of the things that sets AI apart is its ability to impact high-skilled jobs. As a result, advanced economies face greater risks from AI—but also more opportunities to leverage its benefits—compared with emerging market and developing economies.



In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI. Roughly half the exposed jobs may benefit from AI integration, enhancing productivity. For the other half, AI applications may execute key tasks currently performed by humans, which could lower labor demand, leading to lower wages and reduced hiring. In the most extreme cases, some of these jobs may disappear.



In emerging markets and low-income countries, by contrast, AI exposure is expected to be 40 percent and 26 percent, respectively. These findings suggest emerging market and developing economies face fewer immediate disruptions from AI. At the same time, many of these countries don’t have the infrastructure or skilled workforces to harness the benefits of AI, raising the risk that over time the technology could worsen inequality among nations.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2024/January/AI-MD-Blog-Chart-1.ashx" alt=""/></figure>



AI could also affect income and wealth inequality within countries. We may see polarization within income brackets, with workers who can harness AI seeing an increase in their productivity and wages—and those who cannot falling behind.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161">Research</a>&nbsp;shows that AI can help less experienced workers enhance their productivity more quickly. Younger workers may find it easier to exploit opportunities, while older workers could struggle to adapt.



The effect on labor income will largely depend on the extent to which AI will complement high-income workers. If AI significantly complements higher-income workers, it may lead to a disproportionate increase in their labor income. Moreover, gains in productivity from firms that adopt AI will likely boost capital returns, which may also favor high earners. Both of these phenomena could exacerbate inequality.



In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality, a troubling trend that policymakers must proactively address to prevent the technology from further stoking social tensions. It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive social safety nets and offer retraining programs for vulnerable workers. In doing so, we can make the AI transition more inclusive, protecting livelihoods and curbing inequality.



An Inclusive AI-Driven World



AI is being integrated into businesses around the world at remarkable speed, underscoring the need for policymakers to act.



To help countries craft the right policies, the IMF has developed an AI Preparedness Index that measures readiness in areas such as digital infrastructure, human-capital and labor-market policies, innovation and economic integration, and regulation and ethics.



The human-capital and labor-market policies component, for example, evaluates elements such as years of schooling and job-market mobility, as well as the proportion of the population covered by social safety nets. The regulation and ethics component assesses the adaptability to digital business models of a country’s legal framework and the presence of strong governance for effective enforcement.



Using the index, IMF staff assessed the readiness of 125 countries. The findings reveal that wealthier economies, including advanced and some emerging market economies, tend to be better equipped for AI adoption than low-income countries, though there is considerable variation across countries. Singapore, the United States and Denmark posted the highest scores on the index, based on their strong results in all four categories tracked.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2024/January/AI-MD-Blog-Chart-2.ashx" alt=""/></figure>



Guided by the insights from the AI Preparedness Index, advanced economies should prioritize AI innovation and integration while developing robust regulatory frameworks. This approach will cultivate a safe and responsible AI environment, helping maintain public trust. For emerging market and developing economies, the priority should be laying a strong foundation through investments in digital infrastructure and a digitally competent workforce.



The AI era is upon us, and it is still within our power to ensure it brings prosperity for all.

BLOG-2099×600-MD-AI-BLOG-X-poser-Adobe-Stock

AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="493" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-820x493.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-452139" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-820x493.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-300x181.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-150x90.jpg 150w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-768x462.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-1536x924.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/JuanitaMaree001-s-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dr Juanita Maree, CEO of the SA Association of Freight Forwarders</figcaption></figure>



The logistics crisis in South Africa is, without doubt, the ‘perfect storm’, strangling the private sector and trade, negatively impacting the fiscal, causing massive knock-on damage to the nation at large. This is a situation that government now recognises as an ‘Achilles heel’ to the national economy.



Corrective, regenerative focus from collaborative platforms between the public and private sectors to address the situation has started to show progress, but needs to intensify. The road is long and arduous; we are off to a late but reasonable start. The Southern Africa Association of Freight Forwarders (SAAFF) welcomes the opportunity to track and measure progress through its industry leading qualitative Weekly Cargo Movement Report and its commitment to securing sustainable solutions as a dynamic sectoral representative body at the forefront of this critical path.



Significantly, imports and exports in 2023 represented 56.22% of South Africa’s total GDP, down by 8,7% from 2022 – and this in a boom year for mineral resources. The drop obliterated robust trade growth posted in 2022 &#8211; a recovery year after the impacts of the COVID-19 catastrophe. In the context of such losses and taking into consideration the serious knock-on impact this has on business across all sectors, it is clearly time for stretch targets in the reconstruction of the logistics network.



South Africa&#8217;s freight demand is high, at nearly 500 billion tonne-kilometres*. We need a multi-modal approach to satisfy our freight demand. And at the worst of times recently, the inefficiencies in rail cost us R1 billion a day, while the inefficiencies at the ports amount to a loss of R200 million a day. These numbers are staggering – clearly highlighting the magnitude of the current problems and the desperate need to overturn them.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-where-are-we-currently">Where are we currently?</h2>



Taking stock of progress since SAAFF’s urgent call to Government on February the 7th&nbsp;last year when the organisation warned of the need for wholesale reform and urgent corrective action to decisively address the crisis in the logistics sector, developments are encouraging and poised to pick up pace in 2024.



The introduction of the National Logistics Crisis Committee (NLCC) came as an important response from Government to Industry and was greeted by a legion of strong, powerful well-vested private-sector partners ready for action&nbsp; &#8211; a major step in the right direction.



The NLCC, constituted by Government works to secure stability across the logistics and supply chain arena. Through this forum, the private sector is able to participate and have regular access to a specialist logistics consultative platform that is anchored by cadence and accountability, committed to enabling world-class logistics networks for South Africa. The NLCC work is already making difference. The recovery plan deployed by Transnet in Pier 2, the country’s biggest container terminal, will remove the backlog effectively end of February 2024 as was anticipated in the original plan.



SAAFF Chief Executive Officer Dr Juanita Maree went on record to highlight the importance of Cabinet’s approval and activation of the Freight Logistics Roadmap, saying it would open the way for the revival of a properly resourced, inter-modal, world class logistics network for South Africa and the region.&nbsp; In the short-term, the approval gives traction to the emergency, restorative programme underway to address the current crisis which is further aided by the R47 billion guarantee facility introduced in support of Transnet’s Recovery Plan, the dynamics start to paint a picture.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-where-are-we-going">Where are we going?</h2>



Quality in the execution of the plans is critical. When reforms are well implemented, transparent Apex key performance indicators become evident and measurable between marine, waterside, landside, and evacuation of Terminals, enabling South Africa to conduct sound benchmarking against best practice.&nbsp; Introducing in other words, inter and intra port competition&nbsp; &#8211; the operational platform that is required for an intact logistic network to support trade and trade growth.&nbsp;



Our call is still out for more practical measures to be introduced as sustainable action to protect jobs and attract investment. Well-managed, functional Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) have proven successful for both developed and emerging economies across the world. Designed to ensure collaborative work within the ‘SA Inc.’ concept to shape our Logistics network across all modalities.&nbsp; PPP platforms should allay fears among labour groups about job losses and instead predict OPPORTUNITY for job creation.



Excellence as a standard is an absolute requirement. Excellence must define SA Inc.’s Logistics network going forward, in the evolution.&nbsp; For this to become a reality it is essential to be clear on what is required to support trade and trade growth.&nbsp; The Transnet Freight Rail and Ports management crisis begs for reinforcement to be urgently and adequately expedited.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-risk-and-reward-in-the-short-term-horizon">Risk and Reward in the short-term horizon</h2>



Transnet is a ‘big ship’, it turns slowly, but turning it is! &#8211; guided by the steadfast commitment and solid operational experience of the team under the leadership of current acting CEO Michelle Phillips who, earlier this week again called on government to accelerate private-sector-participation in the dysfunctional state-owned logistics firm [Transnet] saying this action “needs to be put on steroids”.



It is a fundamental truth that logistics is the beating heart of the national economy, the activator of trade, commerce, jobs, skills development, FDI, et-al. In general terms, logistics is the driver of business dynamics, ROI – and has a significant impact on the quality of life in our country.&nbsp;&nbsp;



South Africa has what it takes to fix the problems, improve its logistics base and to turn this moment into an opportunity to uphold its leadership position in the regional and continental context and beyond in the global supply chain where geopolitical and climate driven congestions beg for efficient, alternative routes and trade partners. South Africa has a chance to press reset, to reinvent its position as a founder member of BRICS and at the dawn of the AfCFTA. We need all hands-on-deck!

JuanitaMaree001-s-1

Reaching the point of Turnaround

<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="528" height="245" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/151.png" alt="" class="wp-image-452111" style="width:528px;height:auto" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/151.png 528w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/151-300x139.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/151-160x74.png 160w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px" /></figure></div>

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<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="358" height="310" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/11.png" alt="" class="wp-image-452112" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/11.png 358w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/11-300x260.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/11-104x90.png 104w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 358px) 100vw, 358px" /></figure></div>

<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="541" height="363" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/image012.png" alt="" class="wp-image-452113" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/image012.png 541w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/image012-300x201.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/image012-134x90.png 134w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 541px) 100vw, 541px" /></figure></div>


<a href="#c201b58a-4f05-44a8-a472-3ce45b6e5bcc" id="c201b58a-4f05-44a8-a472-3ce45b6e5bcc-link">1</a>South Africa’s benchmark (ten-year) government bond has seen its yield remain above 11.00% for most of this year so far and averaging 11.03% after 2023’s average of 11.25%, deteriorated from 2022’s 10.48% as fiscal health weakened.



• Indeed, in 2021, the yield on South Africa’s benchmark (ten-year) government bond averaged 9.40%, and in 2019 8.94%, 2013 7.35% as SA’s long-term borrowing costs rose as the state extended its gross loan borrowings (as a % of GDP).



• South Africa’s steadily rising benchmark yield (inverse relation to the price) over the years indicates the falling value of SA bonds, with yields much lower, and hence the ten-year yield much higher than that of most EM bonds.&nbsp;



• Bloomberg’s ten-year local currency bond yield ranker for emerging countries’ debt shows that SA ranks among the bottom of the twenty-eight countries included, with only Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Lebanon and Nigeria seeing higher yields.



• That is, the local currency bonds for SA have a relatively high overall total country risk (as local currency debt includes country risk as well as sovereign risk) compared to other emerging countries’ benchmark bonds.



• The majority of this Bloomberg ranked groups’ yields are below 10%, specifically over twenty-one of the twenty-eight countries, with Brazil’s benchmark bond yield at 10.71%, and South Africa coming in next at twenty-three.



• The extremely poor faring of SA’s government bonds is indicative of the deterioration in the credit quality, with borrowing set to balloon to 74.7% of GDP this fiscal year from 70.9% in 2022/23. It is projected to climb&nbsp; further to 77.5% of GDP by 2026/27.&nbsp;



• In the second half of the 2000s the debt was closer to 20% of GDP, while the country’s benchmark bond yield was close to 6%. The most recent government statistics show for the first three quarters of 2023/24 that the revenue underrun continues.



• Expenditure is at 74.2% of the revised budget in the MTBPS, ahead of last year’s 70.1% at this time. Revenue is at 71.5% of budget, under the 72.2% of the comparable period, and underscoring the likelihood of the projected ballooning in borrowings.


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The deficit is currently sitting at -R292.2bn for the first three quarters of the year. Gross loan debt as a % of GDP was below 70% prior to 2022/23, and last year saw weak commodity prices and a collapse in growth damage revenues.



• The state continues to overspend this fiscal year compared to the comparative periods of last year, eroding the chance of the country’s gross loan debt coming in substantially below the projected figure, which is undermining bond yields.



• Financial markets react negatively to increased borrowings, particularly when expenditure does not slow to fit the deterioration in revenue, which has been the case for a number of years for SA, causing its yields to jump up, and credit ratings to fall.&nbsp;&nbsp;



• Lebanon, Turkey, Nigeria and Russia have lower credit ratings than SA, higher benchmark bond yields, with Nigeria and Turkey in the single B category, Pakistan CCC and Lebanon lower at RD, with the bottom rung ratings being seen as ‘junk’.



• The IMF highlights in its World Economic Outlook that “(i)n emerging market and developing economies, in which output has on average fallen even further below the prepandemic trend, on average the fiscal stance is estimated to have been neutral.”



• Adding in its WEO (World Economic Outlook) that “(t)he exceptions include Brazil and Russia, where fiscal policy eased in 2023”,&nbsp; with the yield on Brazil’s ten year bond rising from 10.28% in 2023 to 10.75%.



• The IMF adds “(i)n 2024, the fiscal policy stance is expected to tighten in several advanced and emerging market and developing economies to rebuild budgetary room for maneuver and curb the rising path of debt”.



• “Global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2(%) … higher than that in the October …WEO) on … greater-than expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China.”



• “The forecast for 2024–25 is, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth.”


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SA Bond note: the deteriorated bond values persist as SA heads into the Budget on 21st February

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="234" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-820x234.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-449834" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-820x234.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-300x86.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-160x46.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-768x220.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-1536x439.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/BLOG-2099x600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Credit: Peeterv/iStock by Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from persistent security challenges, and Sahel countries such as Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Mauritania, and Mali are particularly afflicted by protracted conflicts and humanitarian crises.



While various factors can fuel conflict, our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2024/004/001.2024.issue-004-en.xml?cid=bl-com-WPIEA2024004&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">research</a>&nbsp;shows that discontent with state institutions among marginalized groups is a key driver of unrest in the region. Such distrust reflects perceptions that governments fail to address equity issues and inclusive growth—including the fair allocation of natural resources and human capital development.



Institutional failures aggravate feelings of exclusion where some people or groups are systematically denied rights, opportunities, or resources that may be available to other segments of the population. This invites conflict by undermining the principles of fairness and inclusivity vital for sustainable development.



As the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/chart-of-the-week?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Chart of the Week</a> shows, conflict is often concentrated near national borders where there tend to be more limited or insufficient public services, fostering feelings of exclusion. These conflict-prone hotspots pose substantial security and stability risks in both directly affected and neighboring countries.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="601" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ssa-fatalties-map-3-4_original-601x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-449833" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ssa-fatalties-map-3-4_original-601x800.png 601w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ssa-fatalties-map-3-4_original-225x300.png 225w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ssa-fatalties-map-3-4_original-68x90.png 68w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ssa-fatalties-map-3-4_original.png 736w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px" /></figure>



Notable examples of conflicts with potential cross-border spillover effects include the recent civil war in Ethiopia and the long-running conflicts in South Sudan and the Central African Republic, as well as extremism-driven conflicts across the Sahel and northern Mozambique.



Our analysis of conditions across all countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2022 explores the instrumental role of social, political, and economic exclusion in driving conflicts, as expressed by our new exclusion index. Our study is intended to help policymakers navigate the complexities of the region, and in turn improve lives.



It highlights how mitigating violent conflict requires a comprehensive approach to address various forms of exclusion. Fostering relationships between people and a government that ensures justice and equitable public service delivery is crucial in establishing conditions for sustainable peace and social cohesion.



Poverty and underdevelopment alone may not fuel conflict. But those underlying factors are exacerbated by the experience or perception of social and economic exclusion, thus providing a fertile breeding ground for armed groups, necessitating urgent intervention.



Exclusion and distrust of government are not the only causes of conflict, which can also be fueled by climate change and food insecurity, among other factors. Moreover, the dire repercussions of the security crisis, coupled with these challenges, underscore an urgent need for humanitarian assistance and the pressing need to improve the quality and efficiency of security expenditures, as well as combating terrorism financing. However, those efforts may fall short if the problem of exclusion is not addressed at the same time.

BLOG-2099×600-Peteerv-iStock-by-Getty-Images-iStock-533277159

How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="492" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/bill-and-melinda-gates-t-820x492.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-401148" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/bill-and-melinda-gates-t-820x492.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/bill-and-melinda-gates-t-300x180.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/bill-and-melinda-gates-t-768x461.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/bill-and-melinda-gates-t.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bill and Melinda GatesFrederic Stevens | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



SEATTLE,&nbsp;WA&nbsp;(January&nbsp;24,&nbsp;2024)&nbsp;–&nbsp;In&nbsp;his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/2024-gates-foundation-annual-letter" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">annual&nbsp;letter&nbsp;published&nbsp;today,</a>&nbsp;Bill&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;Melinda&nbsp;Gates&nbsp;Foundation CEO&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/leadership/mark-suzman" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mark Suzman</a>&nbsp;called for philanthropists to give more and give now to meet the unprecedented challenges nations across the globe face in combatting poverty, eradicating disease, and fighting&nbsp;inequality.



In the years since the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the world has seen a backslide in progress at a time when low-income countries have fewer resources to meet basic human needs. And yet, there is a robust pipeline of <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/science-innovation-technology" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">health and technological innovations</a> and proven solutions that could be scaled up or catalyzed with the advent of additional philanthropic dollars.



“Philanthropy&nbsp;can&nbsp;take&nbsp;risks&nbsp;and&nbsp;help&nbsp;fill&nbsp;gaps&nbsp;that&nbsp;would otherwise&nbsp;be&nbsp;overlooked&nbsp;or&nbsp;underfunded,” Suzman&nbsp;writes.&nbsp;“We&nbsp;have&nbsp;the&nbsp;opportunity&nbsp;to&nbsp;realize&nbsp;the&nbsp;full&nbsp;potential&nbsp;of&nbsp;philanthropy&nbsp;at&nbsp;the&nbsp;moment when the world needs it most.&#8221;



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2023/04/04/forbes-37th-annual-worlds-billionaires-list-facts-and-figures-2023/?sh=5b6583577d76" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forbes,</a>&nbsp;the net worth of the world’s 2,640 billionaires is at least $12.2 trillion. Suzman points out that with just $1 billion in additional giving—a tiny fraction of that amount—philanthropists could fund a set of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/goalkeepers/report/2023-report/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">high-impact, low-cost interventions</a>&nbsp;that could save the lives of 2 million additional mothers and babies by 2030. With $4 billion, they could help half a billion smallholder farmers&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cgiar.org/invest/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">become</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cgiar.org/invest/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">more climate resilient</a>&nbsp;and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 1 gigaton a year by 2030.&nbsp;With&nbsp;a&nbsp;little&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;$7&nbsp;billion,&nbsp;they&nbsp;could&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gavi.org/gavi-investment-opportunity-2021-2025" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">get&nbsp;vaccines&nbsp;to&nbsp;300&nbsp;million&nbsp;people,</a>&nbsp;preventing&nbsp;at&nbsp;least 7 million deaths.



This&nbsp;immense&nbsp;potential&nbsp;to&nbsp;respond&nbsp;to&nbsp;compounding&nbsp;global&nbsp;crises&nbsp;and&nbsp;accelerate&nbsp;progress&nbsp;is&nbsp;why&nbsp;the



Gates Foundation is stepping up its funding support. Earlier this month, the Gates Foundation’s board of trustees <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-center/press-releases/2024/01/annual-budget-funding-future-health" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">approved a 2024 budget of $8.6 billion</a>—the largest ever—which the foundation will use to fund innovative ways to save and improve lives. In 2022, the foundation announced its intent to <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-center/press-releases/2022/07/gates-foundation-announce-annual-payout-increase-us-9-billion-global-crises-response" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">increase its</a> <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/media-center/press-releases/2022/07/gates-foundation-announce-annual-payout-increase-us-9-billion-global-crises-response" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">annual payout to $9 billion by 2026,</a> and it is committed to spending down its endowment within 20 years of its founders’ deaths to focus on solving urgent problems now and helping set up sustainable systems for the future.



Suzman’s letter also highlights the growth and evolution of philanthropy globally, citing organizations such as&nbsp;the African Philanthropy Forum that is helping African donors&nbsp;work together&nbsp;to drive inclusive, sustainable&nbsp;development&nbsp;across&nbsp;the&nbsp;continent&nbsp;and&nbsp;foundations&nbsp;based&nbsp;in&nbsp;countries&nbsp;like&nbsp;India,&nbsp;China,&nbsp;and Singapore are taking on more local and global problems. “The philanthropic ecosystem looks different



than&nbsp;it&nbsp;did&nbsp;when&nbsp;I&nbsp;started&nbsp;doing&nbsp;this&nbsp;work&nbsp;over&nbsp;15&nbsp;years&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;and&nbsp;that’s&nbsp;a good&nbsp;thing,”&nbsp;he&nbsp;writes.&nbsp;“Donors around the world are bringing bold vision and lived experience to complex challenges.”



Small donations made by millions&nbsp;of&nbsp;people worldwide are also having an enormous&nbsp;impact. Suzman underscores&nbsp;that&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;half&nbsp;the&nbsp;world’s&nbsp;countries&nbsp;participate&nbsp;in&nbsp;Giving&nbsp;Tuesday,&nbsp;a&nbsp;movement&nbsp;that&nbsp;has facilitated more than $13 billion in donations since 2012.



As&nbsp;Suzman&nbsp;writes,&nbsp;“Today’s&nbsp;world&nbsp;has&nbsp;no&nbsp;shortage&nbsp;of&nbsp;complex&nbsp;problems&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;tackled&nbsp;or&nbsp;innovators&nbsp;ready to take them on. But without generous investment and persistent support, great ideas remain&nbsp;just that: ideas.&nbsp;If&nbsp;more&nbsp;people&nbsp;step&nbsp;up&nbsp;their&nbsp;commitments&nbsp;and&nbsp;focus&nbsp;their&nbsp;resources&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;areas&nbsp;of&nbsp;greatest&nbsp;need, those ideas can translate to impact.”

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Gates Foundation CEO Urges More Philanthropy for Proven Life-Saving Solutions

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="716" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2-820x716.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-447096" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2-820x716.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2-300x262.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2-103x90.jpg 103w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2-768x671.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2.jpg 1183w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum</figcaption></figure>



Increasing division, heightened hostility, and a surge in conflicts are defining the current global landscape. The perpetual need for crisis management is depleting the crucial human energy that could otherwise be channelled into shaping a more optimistic future.



Despite facing serious crises in the past, the current wave of pessimism is unprecedented. And unlike the past, the power and presence of global media and communications technology today means that every challenge and setback is amplified, further magnifying the sense of doom and gloom.



After an era that lifted a billion people out of poverty and improved living standards everywhere, the anxiety about losing control over what lies ahead is pushing people towards embracing extreme ideologies and the leaders who champion them.



Rebuilding trust in our future is paramount. The question is where to start, given today’s complex circumstances.



Similar to a medical diagnosis, we must first identify and address the root causes of our malaise. We’re at a pivotal moment in history, yet we still cling to outdated solutions. Complicating matters is the fact that we&#8217;re grappling with many issues simultaneously, all of which are deeply interconnected and mutually reinforcing. There&#8217;s no quick fix or one-size-fits-all remedy. It&#8217;s about addressing all the symptoms in a holistic manner.



First, we no longer have a narrative for how to reinvigorate our economies, which today are burdened by unsustainable levels of debt and inflation, eroding the purchasing power of individuals. Traditional monetary and fiscal policies have run out of steam, and supply side policies are further exacerbating the debt burden. What’s crucially needed now is a new approach – one which leverages the transition to a green, digital, and inclusive economy as a great opportunity for job creation, increased purchasing power and ultimately sustained economic growth.



Second, climate change is a clear threat to current and especially future generations. We must respond to this challenge by increasing energy affordability, security, and sustainability, all the while reducing geoeconomic and geopolitical dependencies. With technological progress, cheaper renewable energy is readily available and can substantially contribute to a more equitable world, with far-reaching impacts on the environment, life quality, and longevity.



Third, we are living in an era of exponential technological development, particularly with the advent of artificial intelligence. These technologies can be enormously disruptive forces if not well governed, but they can also serve as catalysts for a renaissance of humanity, unlocking new dimensions of human creativity and fostering unprecedented collaboration and understanding.



These holistic narratives require global, national, and local cooperation – especially in a world that&#8217;s becoming more competitive and multipolar, marked by growing societal divides and pervasive uncertainty.



Open, transparent conversations can restore mutual trust between individuals and nations who, out of fear for their own future, prioritize their own interests. The resulting dynamics diminish hope in a brighter future. To steer away from crisis-driven dynamics and foster cooperation, trust and a shared vision for a brighter future, we must create a positive narrative that unlocks the opportunities presented by this historic turning point.

Klaus_Schwab_ID-1-2

Rebuilding Trust in the Future

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424241" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo in Washington, United States, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Washington, DC – December 5, 2023:&nbsp;On November 20, 2023, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) discussed the staff report: “Review of the Fund’s Strategy on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT).” The staff report takes stock of the implementation of the Fund’s AML/CFT program adopted by the Executive Board in 2018, identifies lessons learned, and seeks the Executive Board’s endorsement of the proposals for the way forward. The report provides an overview of the current approach by staff towards money laundering (ML) and terrorism financing (TF) risks and context, followed by an in-depth analysis of staff’s work under key Fund workstreams—surveillance, financial sector assessment programs (FSAPs), Fund-supported programs, AML/CFT assessments, and capacity development (CD). It also describes how AML/CFT issues have been integrated into other Fund policies and how staff has contributed to the global AML/CFT agenda through close coordination with other stakeholders to leverage synergies and avoid duplication of work. Based on these findings, the paper proposes the way forward for the Fund’s AML/CFT strategy by deepening further the integration of financial integrity issues in the Fund’s core functions through enhanced focus on AML/CFT issues that have macroeconomic impact and sets out issues for discussion.



Since the 2018 review of the Fund’s AML/CFT strategy, the coverage of financial integrity issues has increased across all workstreams. Staff enhanced its understanding of ML/TF risks and of the macroeconomic impact of financial crimes, based on a wide range of quantitative and qualitative data, which has guided the Fund’s engagements with member countries. This review highlights an increased coverage of AML/CFT issues in surveillance and related conditionality in Fund-supported programs. Staff has provided input on AML/CFT in every FSAP, making full use of the flexibility in scope and depth afforded, and contributed to the broader discussion of the stability and soundness of members’ financial sectors, while avoiding duplication with AML/CFT assessments against the international standards set by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The increase in regional, multi country, and thematic CD projects has resulted in assistance to a broader range of countries and enhanced flexibility for targeted and more effective and impactful engagements. Staff’s active participation in AML/CFT assessments by the FATF Global Network has effectively contributed to its assessment efforts. The current policy to conduct one to two assessments per year has allowed staff to deliver one assessment per year given the length of these exercises, while also increasing staff’s participation in the review of the quality and consistency of draft assessment reports prepared by other assessor bodies which are essential for the IMF’s work and to help ensure a more evenhanded approach in conducting assessments, and in training assessors and assisting countries preparing for assessments. In addition, staff has participated in an assessment led by a FATF-style regional body, pursuant to the policy endorsed by the Board in 2020.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-executive-board-assessment">Executive Board Assessment </h2>



Executive Directors welcomed the opportunity to review the Fund’s AML/CFT Strategy. They stressed that addressing ML, TF, and proliferation financing risks is integral to the Fund’s mandate to support the integrity and stability of the international financial system and member countries’ economies. They welcomed the staff’s stocktaking of the progress that has been made and the lessons learned. They agreed with the overall direction to continue to enhance staff’s understanding of the nature and severity of financial integrity risks, with a greater focus on assessing and mitigating negative macroeconomic impacts, which will help staff further prioritize the depth and scope of its engagements. They emphasized that staff should continue to rely on the multipronged approach and synergies across the Fund’s various workstreams to support individual member countries’ efforts in enhancing the effectiveness of their AML/CFT frameworks.



Directors supported the proposed approach on surveillance, where staff will put greater focus on the linkages between financial integrity issues and fiscal, financial sector, and structural priorities. They agreed that staff should continue to cover financial integrity issues under the current principles of engagement and deepen its coverage in an evenhanded manner, commensurate with the risks faced by members, on a mandatory basis when these issues are macro-critical and on a voluntary basis when requested by the member country. With regard to FSAPs, Directors concurred that the current policy of mandatory coverage of AML/CFT issues with flexibility in scope and depth remains appropriate and supported staff’s proposal to put greater emphasis on the nexus between financial integrity and financial stability. Directors also agreed with the proposed approach on Fund supported programs, where staff will continue to use its own judgment and expertise in designing financial integrity and AML/CFT conditionality in line with program objectives and subject to the principles of criticality, parsimony, and avoiding cross conditionality. Directors also noted the importance of better understanding political economy constraints. A number of Directors emphasized the need for flexibility and technical support for members with capacity weaknesses. In this context, a few Directors considered that it is preferable to address AML/CFT issues through tailored CD support.



Directors welcomed the CD activities delivered by staff to member countries and agreed that, in line with the Fund’s CD strategy, staff should continue to provide comprehensive CD support with greater flexibility to respond to the evolving demand from the membership and deepen support for other Fund workstreams. They noted that a better understanding of ML/TF risks will allow staff to continue to further develop the CD program in line with evolving risks such as those related to digital money, laundering of the proceeds of corruption, tax evasion, and environmental crimes. Directors reiterated the need to continue to coordinate with other technical assistance providers to maximize efforts and avoid duplication of efforts.



Directors concurred that staff should continue to integrate financial integrity issues in other Fund policies. They also welcomed staff’s proposal to deepen its engagement with a broader range of external stakeholders, including through enhanced collaboration with other international and regional organizations and civil society, and leverage global and regional partnerships to maximize the impact of the Fund’s AML/CFT work program while focusing on its comparative advantage.



Directors highlighted the importance of the Fund’s continued engagement in AML/CFT assessments with a focus on quality and consistency. They generally supported or were open to staff’s proposal to increase gradually its assessment-related work, to be able to deliver two Fund-led assessments and participate in one FSRB-led assessment per year from FY 2028 onward, without prejudice to other core workstreams and subject to the reallocation of resources to enable this increase. Some Directors, nonetheless, considered the current pace of assessments to be broadly adequate. Directors looked forward to considering staff’s proposal to increase its assessment work in the context of the medium term budget process.



Directors noted that the next review of the AML/CFT Strategy would be expected to be completed within the next five years.

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

IMF Executive Board Discusses the Fund’s Strategy on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-432762" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/1691767759484.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/11/561" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Less than a third</a>&nbsp;of sub-Saharan Africa’s population is financially literate – in contrast to OECD countries where over half the population is. This lack of financial literacy has implications that are as significant as they are concerning. As researchers Ashenafi Fanta and Kingstone Mutsonziwa&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/11/561" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">explain</a>, financially literate people make better and more informed investment decisions, save for retirement and rainy days, and are more resilient to economic shocks – while those without adequate financial literacy:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Tend to be more heavily indebted and rack up greater financial expenses&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>



<li>Are more easily exploited by unscrupulous financial actors</li>



<li>Are more prone to making costly investment mistakes</li>



<li>Have a higher risk of falling behind on debt payments</li>
</ol>



Increased financial literacy creates a host of positive outcomes – not just for individuals and their families, but for a country’s broader economy and society too. Research suggests that the benefits of financial literacy include reductions in debt and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9735152/#CR14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">poverty</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/econ-2022-0019/html?lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stronger economic growth</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/financialliteracy/allianz-financial-and-risk-literacy.html#:~:text=Financial%20literacy%20is%20therefore%20a,entrepreneurship%20insurance%20%E2%80%93%20and%20even%20homeownership." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">greater mobility</a>. Indeed, as&nbsp;<a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/financialliteracy/allianz-financial-and-risk-literacy.html#:~:text=Financial%20literacy%20is%20therefore%20a,entrepreneurship%20insurance%20%E2%80%93%20and%20even%20homeownership." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">research from Allianz</a>&nbsp;explains, financial literacy acts as “a catalyst for economic mobility” and better living conditions through enabling marginalized and vulnerable people “to make better financial decisions and promote long-term planning,” unlocking&nbsp; “opportunities such as access to credit, entrepreneurship insurance – and even homeownership” so that cycle of poverty can be broken.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-africa-s-fintech-revolution-requires-a-revolution-in-financial-literacy">Africa’s fintech revolution requires a revolution in financial literacy</h2>



In recent years, Africa has seen a rapid proliferation of fintech (financial technology), particularly via mobile devices. This should come as no surprise given that, by the middle of the decade,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kbc.co.ke/devops/strong-mobile-growth-predicted-for-sub-saharan-africa/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">nearly half a billion Africans</a>&nbsp;will have access to mobile internet. Electronic payments (a market&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-future-of-payments-in-africa" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">projected</a>&nbsp;to have revenues of $40 billion by 2025) are now widespread, and there are now over&nbsp;<a href="https://qz.com/africa/2161960/gsma-70-percent-of-the-worlds-1-trillion-mobile-money-market-is-in-africa#:~:text=In%20the%20review%20period%2C%20registered,just%20over%20a%20year%20before." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">184 million</a>&nbsp;mobile money wallets being actively used across Africa.



The increasing ubiquity of fintech offers plenty of advantages – increasing the accessibility, affordability and convenience of financial services on a continent which has long been underbanked. But while greater access to financial data and more numerous savings and investment options are to be welcomed, they are not a substitute for financial literacy. In fact, the fintech revolution underway makes the need for financial literacy education in Africa all the more necessary – and urgent. With a dizzying variety of financial products more easily available than ever before, indebtedness and risky investing is likely to increase if not proactively addressed.



There are a number of approaches through which African nations should scale up financial literacy education for their citizens – at all ages.



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Schools: Young people need to be taught the basics of financial literacy from the get go. That is why schools like the Complexo Escolar Privado Internacional (CEPI) – an award-winning school in Luanda, Angola, operated by ABO Capital – prioritizes the study of STEM and empowers its students to participate in global education competitions, including the recent GENIUS Olympiad in New York and the 2022 Copernicus Mathematics Olympiad. But while some programs already exist at the school level (typically implemented by the private sector and nonprofits), OECD <a href="https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/the-status-of-financial-education-in-africa_5k94cqqx90wl-en#page43" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">research</a> suggests that these efforts tend to be siloed, lacking coherence and country-wide coordination. Governments must therefore take the lead in establishing standardized literacy programs, collaborating with – and more effectively monitoring – the other stakeholders (including nonprofits and businesses) who are already active in the financial literacy space. Governments must set measurable targets for improvement, using financial literacy metrics determined by international organizations like the World Bank so that progress can be assessed and benchmarked against other countries.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="2">
<li>Financial Institutions: Financial institutions should prioritize improvements in financial literacy for their customers – either as one of their strategic goals or as an integral component of their corporate social responsibility. African financial institutions that have incorporated financial literacy programs have seen successful results. For example, <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/evaluating-effectiveness-financial-literacy-program-south-africa" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">research</a> shows that a financial literacy program offered by <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/evaluation/evaluating-effectiveness-financial-literacy-program-south-africa" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Old Mutual</a> (a major South African financial services firm) resulted in improvements in “financial behavior related to savings, borrowings, and money management”.</li>
</ol>



<ol class="wp-block-list" start="3">
<li>Mobile Money Operators: Roughly <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bridging-financial-gap-axalios-impact-africas-unbanked-population#:~:text=The%20African%20continent%20is%20home,infrastructure%2C%20and%20low%20financial%20literacy." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">350 million Africans</a> do not have access to traditional financial institutions, with many of them using mobile money operators to manage their finances instead. Mobile money operators must therefore use their platforms to promote financial literacy courses that complement their existing products and services. In addition, mobile money operators should also introduce goal-oriented programs that incentivise saving. For example, <a href="https://squaddigital.com/m-shwari" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the M-Shwari 52 Week Challenge</a> in Kenya led to more than 270,000 Kenyans increasing their savings, with a total of 4.5 billion Kenyan Shillings saved.</li>
</ol>



Through rolling out financial education rapidly and at scale, we will be empowering Africa’s consumers with the know-how they need to wisely and profitably invest, borrow and save. Not only will this lead to greater individual wellbeing and prosperity: we will also be priming the continent’s economy for a new era of vibrant growth and lasting resilience.

1691767759484

Why it’s time to ramp up financial literacy education across Africa

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="794" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-820x794.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-432584" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-820x794.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-300x290.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-93x90.jpg 93w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-768x744.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-1536x1487.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Elias-Monage-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Elias Monage, President of SEIFSA</figcaption></figure>



The steel industry is the backbone of any economy, it forms the foundation of any modern economy and is essential to every single sector. Without a healthy and vibrant local steel industry, South Africa will simply not be able to integrate and develop itself or the rest of the continent. The steel sector – and South Africa – urgently needs clarity on policies, consensus on action plans and realised deliverables on the ground in order to instil confidence in the viability of the country to boost competitiveness and attract both local and foreign direct investment.



The recent announcement by ArcelorMittal South Africa on the potential closure of its operations in Newcastle and Vereeniging, as well as ArcelorMittal Rail and Structural presents a major set-back to the base of the industrial sector and industrialisation more broadly. This development also raises the sharp question whether the grand aspirations of the Steel Master Plan (SMP) to reindustrialise the steel industry are beginning to disintegrate under our watch. The unfortunate reality is that the lofty goals set by the SMP to charter a roadmap to reenergise the sector, expand production and demand across the steel and fabrication value chain are becoming increasingly illusive. There is a growing sense on the part of industry that the SMP has collapsed.



The SMP was pitched as the platform through which all the stakeholders, namely; government, business and labour, who have a direct and vested interest in seeing this industry prosper, would come together and work collaboratively to meet this end. The plan was sold as a deviation from the old and unproductive approach where government directs the path which industry should take and one where different stakeholders lobby the government toward their respective ends in an unstructured way. It was meant to be a unifying platform, where meaningful and active collaboration took place to arrest the rapid decline currently being experienced by the industry through short-term interventions and to grow the industry through longer dated interventions. Importantly, it was also meant to open avenues of communication and collaboration between all stakeholders.



The metals and engineering industries, and particularly the constituency I represent through the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA), fully committed itself to the SMP when it was launched in 2021. SEIFSA was a signatory to the founding document and nominated a number of captains of industry to lead various workstream. The SEIFSA team has invested considerable resources to the work of the SMP unlike some of the nay-sayers that wrote-off SMP at the outset.



Over the last year, SEIFSA has made numerous formal requests for a meeting with the Minister of Trade Industry and Competition on the scrap metal export ban and other much wider and arguably more important and strategic industrial policy concerns. Disappointingly, the meetings have not materialised and our requests have fallen on deaf ears.



We understand and acknowledge that Ministers leading key departments and portfolios are extremely busy, but what we cannot accept is the lack of decisive leadership from the DTIC, resulting in numerous decisions being strung out and not forthcoming. That said, it is ironic that some decisions, like the ban on scrap metal exports – with all its adverse implications – received priority preference and relatively fast decision turn-around times. A further concern to business is the delays in appointing permanent staff to critical decision-making roles. A significant number of DTIC staff, in key decision-making roles, hold them in an acting capacity and this in part contributes to the delays on decision-making.



Public consultation processes on regulations which are often undertaken when it is seemingly clear that a decision has already been taken. This suspicion on the part of business is supported by the unwillingness of the ministry to engage industry on a more in-depth basis on some of the more rational proposals submitted by industry, as in the case of the scrap metal export ban. Moreover, relating to the same scrap metal export ban there has been a very concerning shift in the goal post where the motivation to extend the export ban is now leaning to input cost support for the scrap-based mills and the country’s decarbonisation efforts, whereas the original reasons used to force the decision through were of a security nature and protection of infrastructure. Introducing industrial policy by stealth and misleading economic signals as in this case, renders the SMP as a platform to rubber-stamp and legitimise decisions, including those that do not enjoy support and alignment by a significant block of employers.



Overarching all of this is the fact that the SMP was meant to deliver a comprehensive industrial policy framework, where a total industry perspective would be taken and complementarities across the value chain enhanced. Sadly, what we are witnessing is the opposite, wherein policy is implemented in a fragmented manner, with a short-term view and with pockets of industry being pit against one another. The scrap metal export ban is one such divisive and market distorting development.



The industry is quickly losing faith in the SMP process and it is obvious but worth mentioning that the withdrawal of this constituency from the SMP would virtually render the plan moot.



Industry simply cannot continue to invest the amount of time, effort and resources as it has done thus far for altruistic reasons, particularly when the experienced reality is one of a continued deterioration of the business and operating environment, company closures and job losses.

Elias-Monage

The collapse of the Steel Master Plan and disintegration of industry

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-422462" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/GettyImages-1246262502-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">DAVOS, SWITZERLAND &#8211; JANUARY 15: The WEF annual meeting to be held from January 16 to 20 in Davos, Switzerland on January 15, 2023. Under the theme of &#8220;Cooperation in a Fragmented World,&#8221; top figures shaping global politics and the business world will attend this weekâs 53rd annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. The meeting, which starts Monday, will bring together more than 2,700 leaders from 130 countries including 50 heads of state or government, as multiple crises deepen divisions and fragment the geopolitical landscape. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 1 December 2023 –&nbsp;The World Economic Forum, with support from the Government of the United Arab Emirates, along with more than 20 corporate and research partners in the food sector, launched today the First Movers Coalition for Food. The initiative uses the combined procurement power for sustainably produced farming products to speed up the adoption of sustainable farming, innovations and transitional funding.



Food systems account for more than 30% of global emissions and are critical in achieving the Paris Agreement and limiting global warming to below 1.5C. Aggregating demand for sustainably produced and low-emission agricultural commodities, therefore, can accelerate the transition to net-zero, nature-positive transitions in food systems.



“Through the First Movers Coalition for Food, leading global companies will send demand signals to catalyse the acceleration and adoption of environmentally friendly farming methods and green innovations. This collective public-private partnership will help de-risk upfront investments into more sustainable food production systems,” said Børge Brende, President of the World Economic Forum.



The First Movers Coalition for Food comprises corporate champions from multinational and regional companies with significant purchasing power, value chain partners, farmer organizations and research partners alongside governments to improve existing food systems.



The new initiative aims to accelerate sustainable farming and production methods and technologies by leveraging collective demand for low-carbon agricultural commodities. It will do so through the power of aggregated demand, aiming for a combined procurement value for low-carbon commodities of $10-$20 billion from coalition members. Corporate partners currently participating in the coalition account for a combined revenue of $2.1 trillion, with operations globally.



Founding members of the First Mover Coalition for Food are leading companies that recognize the need for more sustainable practices and innovation in food production systems. Starting mid-December 2023, the World Economic Forum and participating companies and governments will work jointly to identify the demand commitments and pathways to support and mobilize the ecosystem to enable such transformation. The coalition is expected to publish its initial results of the collaborative work in the summer of 2024.



“The way we produce and eat food causes 30% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, uses over 70% of the world’s freshwater, and is responsible for 80% of deforestation and habitat loss in tropical areas,” said Mariam Almheiri, Minister of Climate Change and Environment of the United Arab Emirates. “If we don’t quickly find new, sustainable ways to produce and consume food, these problems will worsen in only a couple of decades. Showing clear demand for improvements in sustainable agriculture production methods is crucial for reaching our global climate goals, and we need to act now.”



Ahmed Galal Ismail, Chief Executive of Majid Al Futtaim, added: “We recognize how our role in reducing emissions across our value chains has an impact on the long-term sustainable health of people and the planet. As an increasing number of customers make the everyday choice to shop sustainably, we as a retailer have the responsibility to deliver more responsibly sourced and produced products. By joining the First Movers Coalition for Food initiative, we aim to amplify the demand for low-emission products and partner with those promoting nature-positive practices, fostering resilient agricultural systems with improved biodiversity and reduced water usage.”



Manny Maceda, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Bain &amp; Company said the coalition will transform how companies procure agricultural commodities, enabling a shift toward eco-friendly production. “This will decrease the risks associated with required investments in low-emissions agri-food production, make it easier to expand to net-zero and nature-positive technologies, and help farmers adopt greener practices such as regenerative agriculture.” About the First Movers Coalition The First Movers Coalition for Food&nbsp;builds on the success of the&nbsp;First Movers Coalition&nbsp;for Industry, launched at COP26 in Glasgow by US President Joe Biden and the World Economic Forum in 2021.



The First Movers Coalition&nbsp;for Industry aggregates purchasing demand&nbsp;to create early markets for innovative clean technologies across eight hard-to-abate industry sectors: aviation, shipping, trucking, steel, aluminium, concrete and cement, and&nbsp;chemicals.&nbsp;



To date, the coalition has garnered the support of&nbsp;more than&nbsp;13&nbsp;government&nbsp;partners and&nbsp;90 companies&nbsp;with&nbsp;purchasing commitments of more than&nbsp;$15 billion. This is&nbsp;the most significant demand signal for clean technologies for industrial sectors that the world has ever seen.



First Movers Coalition for Food members Initial partners working jointly on shaping and accelerating significant demand signals and green procurement commitments include Bayer AG, Cargill, Danone, Louis Dreyfus Company, Majid Al Futtaim Holding Llc, Nestlé, NR Instant Produce PCL, Olam Agri, PepsiCo Inc., Sekem Group, UPL Ltd, Tyson Foods Inc., JBS S.A., and Yara International ASA. More companies will be announced in the coming months. Expert organizations supporting the process include Bain &amp; Company, Ginko Bioworks, Grow Asia, IDH, Indigo Ag, International Rice Research Institute, Temasek Life Sciences Laboratory, Tropical Forest Alliance, and University of Tokyo. The initiative is endorsed by the Government of the United Arab Emirates.

World Economic Forum

WEF First Movers Coalition for Food to Create up to $20 Billion Value Chain for Sustainable Farming

South Africa’s loadshedding crisis continues to underline the importance of a stable electricity supply to keep the economy moving. At least for now, the controversial term “baseload” in this country indicates electricity generation from coal and, to a lesser extent, some nuclear. Peak demand has always been met by our pumped-storage schemes that store and release water to generate electricity, as well as open-cycle gas turbines that run on diesel. Increasingly, renewable energy options are adding to capacity and displacing some of the coal-generated supply from ageing power stations, but commercial, industrial and manufacturing enterprises cannot function to capacity without a stable supply of reliable, baseload electricity.



“The point is that South Africa, and indeed the world, needs a mix of energy sources,” says Gcobisa Melamane, clean coal research specialist at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI). “None of the sources and technologies we currently have can meet the needs of economies and societies on their own.”



South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan, drawn up by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) in 2019 and currently under review, recognises this fact by placing coal status quo at more than 80% of the energy mix. While that percentage is targeted to decrease by almost half (42%) by 2030, coal is expected to remain the dominant energy source for the foreseeable future. In addition, the coal mining and energy generation industries employ thousands of people, adding a socioeconomic impact to the process of transitioning from one type of energy sources to another.



South Africa is not alone in its reliance on coal. Over the past year, several of the European countries that had previously sworn off coal had to fire up their coal power stations again to deal with the energy shortages that resulted from geopolitical circumstances in the northern hemisphere.



Melamane adds, however, that it’s not business as usual in the coal space. Significant time, effort and resources are being dedicated to developing technologies that will limit the environmental impact of coal-fired electricity generation. “SANEDI is one of the organisations in the country researching technologies that can make the use of fossil fuels cleaner so that we can keep using it in a more responsible manner in South Africa. We still have abundant coal resources and it remains a cheaper source of energy. We need to use it while we have it, which makes cleaner technologies a necessary and worthwhile investment.”



Against this backdrop, SANEDI launched its Cleaner Fossil Fuels &amp; Related Technologies programme in 2021 to develop a roadmap for the country to improve the environmental footprint of its energy mix.



In terms of fossil fuels, the first phase of the project identified all the technologies that currently exist. In phase two, 18 focal technologies were selected for further study and to understand where and how they are being used globally. In Japan, China and the US, an array of cleaner coal technologies are already in demonstration and even commercial use. The third phase, which kicked off at the end of September this year, is investigating which of the focal technologies are easily adoptable from a grid perspective, taking into account cost of implementation, regulatory compliance and the skills required. The roadmap study is planned to be completed by the end of March 2024 and, once the relevant stakeholders have approved it, South Africa’s roadmap to cleaner fossil fuels will be published.



“Our country is responsible for 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions but that means nothing to people here whose health is impacted by poor air quality,” says Melamane. “Improving human health and living conditions is one of the main drivers of the research we do.”



The focal technologies in SANEDI’s cleaner fossil fuels roadmap include high-efficiency low-emissions (HELE) carbon capture and sequestration, underground coal gasification to produce syngas for power generation with lower levels of greenhouse gases, and equipment to reduce nitrogen and sulphur dioxides and particulate matter in flue-gas emissions. Most of these have been proven capable of reducing harmful emissions by up to 300kgCO2/MWh in international studies. “SANEDI champions collaboration with local and international research organisations to ensure we learn from each other and don’t waste limited resources on redoing work that has already completed elsewhere,” says Melamane.



For as long as South Africa needs coal to help meet its energy demands, the work to limit its impact on the environment has to continue. We simply cannot afford to satisfy our need for electricity at the expense of the health of humans and the environment.

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IMF Executive Board Discusses the Fund’s Strategy on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism

Why it’s time to ramp up financial literacy education across Africa

The collapse of the Steel Master Plan and disintegration of industry

WEF First Movers Coalition for Food to Create up to $20 Billion Value Chain for Sustainable Farming

Coal still has a place in our energy mix

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Opinion

Africa in the global village: Notes on some epochal trends

Climate change and financing Africa

Shifting the course of Global Trade at 13th Ministerial Conference

Fiscal discipline, R150bn windfall to reduce SA’s debt burden

Commitments don’t grow crops: why Africa needs action to tackle hunger once and for all

Open letter calling on world leaders to show long-view leadership on existential threats

AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.

Reaching the point of Turnaround

SA Bond note: the deteriorated bond values persist as SA heads into the Budget on 21st February

How Distrust of Government by Marginalized People Fuels Conflict in Africa

Gates Foundation CEO Urges More Philanthropy for Proven Life-Saving Solutions

Rebuilding Trust in the Future

IMF Executive Board Discusses the Fund’s Strategy on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism

Why it’s time to ramp up financial literacy education across Africa

The collapse of the Steel Master Plan and disintegration of industry

WEF First Movers Coalition for Food to Create up to $20 Billion Value Chain for Sustainable Farming

Coal still has a place in our energy mix

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Advertise With Us

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