London, 24th&nbsp;May, 2023&nbsp;&#8211; Published by African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) the&nbsp;Africa’s 2023 Growth Prospects: Securing growth resilience in a ‘polycrisis’ world&nbsp;report highlights the various factors that are currently plaguing the global economy: stubbornly high inflation, U.S. and Chinese trade and tech wars, &nbsp;geopolitical tensions and supply chain problems. Following a strong economic recovery from the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, global growth of 3.4% in 2022 was far lower than the IMF forecast of 4.9%, in part reflecting the extremely difficult global economic environment and a dramatic shift towards price stability in the inflation and growth trade-off.



Efforts by key global central banks to rein in inflation must take priority but this is having a negative effect on Africa, with higher external debt servicing costs and a collapse in African sovereign debt issuance. Only three African nations, Angola, Nigeria and South Africa, successfully accessed capital markets in 2022, collectively raising US$6bn, down from the nine that raised almost US$20bn in 2021.



Inflation is proving difficult to tame, while the opening up of the Chinese economy from Covid lockdown measures could further fuel global inflation by releasing pent-up domestic demand. However, “heightened geopolitical tensions, besides preventing opportunities for international cooperation on global issues such as security, climate change and trade, have raised the risk of fragmentation”, the report says.



The Afreximbank report forecasts 4.1% GDP growth for Africa this year, above the global average, with growth shared around the continent, although power shortages and other infrastructural shortcomings will see South African growth slow. The continent has the potential to accelerate its economic prospects, including via increasing infrastructural investment; ongoing structural transformation; improving the macroeconomic environment; digitalisation; and the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).



Dr Hippolyte Fofack, Afreximbank chief economist and director of research and international cooperation, commented: “Inflation, which hit multi-decade highs and is raising the spectre of stagflation, is likely to emerge as the dominant macroeconomic story, eclipsing the short-lived globalisation of growth resilience post-pandemic&#8230;In the immediate term, restraining inflation in the most affected leading economies without provoking a hard landing or a full-blown financial crisis remains the most urgent challenge and risk to both global and African growth.” The Afreximbank Africa’s 2023 Growth Prospects: Securing growth resilience in a ‘polycrisis’ world is available at here:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.afreximbank.com/reports/africas-2023-growth-prospects-securing-growth-resilience-in-a-polycrisis-world/">https://www.afreximbank.com/reports/africas-2023-growth-prospects-securing-growth-resilience-in-a-polycrisis-world/</a>

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African growth potential in a polycrisis world

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="532" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/fl8560351828-image-ku56w7bc.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424911" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/fl8560351828-image-ku56w7bc.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/fl8560351828-image-ku56w7bc-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/fl8560351828-image-ku56w7bc-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/fl8560351828-image-ku56w7bc-768x511.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Antarctica&#8217;s Ross Sea. Original public domain image from Flickr</figcaption></figure>



When it comes to the impacts of climate change, Africa is bearing the brunt. Although the continent <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/climate-finance-africa-african-development-bank-spearheading-innovative-mechanisms-and-instruments-61174">contributes the least</a> to global warming, Africa is the most vulnerable to climate risks.



Climate change is also a multiplier threat in Africa exacerbating social and economic issues. From <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study">droughts</a> to storms and tropical cyclones, extreme weather-related events are increasing in Africa. And the continent is facing increased threats of more frequent and severe climate change-induced disasters.



As African nations remain vulnerable to the growing risks of climate change, building the continent’s resilience should be of top importance to policymakers across the continent. Innovative financing mechanisms can help the continent better prepare for and respond to natural disasters.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-using-innovative-finance-to-address-climate-shocks">Using innovative finance to address climate shocks</h2>



Africa’s current climate finance levels are falling short and the climate financing gap is getting bigger. Between now and 2030, it’s estimated that Africa will need up to <a href="https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/landscape-of-climate-finance-in-africa/#:~:text=Africa%2520requires%2520USD%25202.8%2520trillion,biggest%2520impacts%2520of%2520climate%2520change.">$2.8 trillion</a> to fulfil its National Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.



To close the growing climate finance gap, Africa should explore the use of innovative disaster risk financing mechanisms such as parametric insurance.



Parametric insurance, also called index-based insurance, <a href="https://corporatesolutions.swissre.com/insights/knowledge/what_is_parametric_insurance.html">differs from traditional insurance</a> as it’s based on the probability of a pre-defined event occurring rather than indemnifying for actual loss incurred. It offers pre-determined coverage for extreme weather-related events such as cyclones, droughts or floods.



A parametric insurance plan is <a href="https://scholarship.law.unc.edu/ncjolt/vol20/iss5/3/">based on two elements</a> first, a triggering event and second, a payout mechanism that’s pre-determined and custom created in order to ensure that there’s equity between the cost and payout.



In principle, parametric insurance is <a href="https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/167588/">based on the analysis</a> of loss events. Insurers are able to be innovative in designing novel <a href="https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/167588/">types of protections</a> against risks that wouldn’t meet the criteria for the indemnity insurance sector. And compared to traditional insurance mechanisms, parametric insurance differs as payouts are not based on an assessment ex-post instead, payouts are triggered when certain pre-defined parameters are met.



In the event of an extreme weather-related, governments are usually forced to reallocate funds from their national budgets in order to respond to a disaster. And for most developing countries, by the time relief reaches those that are impacted by the disaster, it’s often too late.



The biggest advantage of parametric insurance is that after a natural disaster occurs, it enables a rapid payment. This in turn can help governments react to climate shocks more swiftly.



Take Madagascar. It was the first country to adopt the African Risk Capacity’s (ARC) <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/arc-launches-parametric-cyclone-product-in-africa/">parametric cyclone insurance policy</a>. After the extreme weather-related event that was tropical cyclone Batsirai hit Madagascar in 2022, it triggered the country’s parametric tropical cyclone insurance policy and the ARC paid out <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/press-releases/madagascar-african-risk-capacity-group-african-development-bank-partnership-issues-15-million-insurance-pay-out-tropical-cyclone-freddy-recovery-efforts-60802#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20ARC%20Grou">$10.7 million</a> to the Government of Madagascar. In turn, Madagascar was able to use the funds to direct emergency aid to the most critical areas in a quick and efficient manner.



Malawi is another case in point. When Malawi was experiencing a drought during the 2021/2022 agricultural season, the government received a payout of <a href="https://www.arc.int/news/african-risk-capacity-group-and-african-development-bank-make-142-million-drought-recovery">$14.2 million</a> to help the country recover from the impact of the drought.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mitigating Africa’s climate change risks</h2>



The recent <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report</a> has revealed a disturbing forecast for Africa in regards to the increased frequency of severe extreme weather-related events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves. The report states that “with every increment of global warming, regional changes in mean climate and extremes become more widespread and pronounced”.



Innovative disaster risk financing instruments such as parametric insurance are in no way a panacea to Africa’s climate finance woes. But they offer the continent an opportunity to help mitigate it’s growing climate change risks and can help build resilience against future climate change shocks.

Antarctica’s Ross Sea. Original public domain image from Flickr

How to tackle Africa’s growing climate change-induced risks through innovative disaster risk financing

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="234" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-820x234.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424698" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-820x234.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-300x86.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-160x46.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-768x220.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-1536x439.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/BLOG-2099x600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Less than half of workers employed in advanced economy central banks are women, but on average only a third of women are economists or managers, according to an I<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/05/05/Who-are-Central-Banks-Gender-Human-Resources-and-Central-Banking-533096?cid=cow-com-WPIEA2023091&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">MF Survey</a>. Instead, women occupy 80 percent of administrative and HR roles, which shows that occupational segregation is quite pervasive.&nbsp;&nbsp;



This is the first survey of its kind that we know of, with studies having so far focused&nbsp;<a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Fjep.33.1.3&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">on academia</a>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12509?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">private</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/former-fed-chair-janet-yellen-on-gender-and-racial-diversity-of-the-federal-governments-economists/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">public sectors</a>&nbsp;more broadly. Central banks can set high gender standards for other economic institutions and this work sheds light on how monetary authorities can improve their own performance.



National central banks in the Group of Seven (G7) participated, as well as the European Central Bank. The topics covered include diversity policies, employment practices, earnings, leave and work arrangements, and childcare and other benefits.



Using data from the survey, we designed a new index, the Human Resources Gender Index (HRGI), which uses a scoring from 0 to 1, with 1 being maximum equality. As our latest <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/chart-of-the-week?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">Chart of the Week</a> shows, policies to eliminate gender gaps have been only partially successful. The ranges and wide variation in scores suggest that participating central banks could do more to reduce the gender gap.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="538" height="399" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/gender-equality-at-central-banks-static-chart_crop.png" alt="" class="wp-image-424697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/gender-equality-at-central-banks-static-chart_crop.png 538w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/gender-equality-at-central-banks-static-chart_crop-300x222.png 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/gender-equality-at-central-banks-static-chart_crop-121x90.png 121w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 538px) 100vw, 538px" /></figure>



On average, central banks score highly on diversity policies, such as hiring targets or mentoring programs and guaranteed interview schemes. However, these are rarely enforced by law and are often limited to people with disabilities.



Where central banks lag is the type of employment offered and pay—65 percent of the overall number of employees on part-time contracts are women. In some central banks, this percentage rises to as much as 80 percent. While these contracts offer flexibility, they can limit women’s career progression, contributing to the small number of women in managerial positions.



The gender gap is even more staggering when it comes to pay—just 27 percent of women make the top 20 percent of annual earnings.



Childcare and related subsidies are also limited, though parental leave and flexible work arrangements are widely offered.



We plan to extend the coverage of this survey to more central banks in both advanced and developing economies, in line with the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/Gender?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery">IMF’s strategy on gender</a>, and numerous studies that show the economic benefits of diversity and equality.



—This blog is based on a recent IMF working paper, titled “Who are Central Banks: Gender, Human Resources and Central Banking.” The authors are Mariarosaria Comunale, Petra de Bruxelles, Kalpana Kochhar, Juliette Raskauskas, and D. Filiz Unsal. Filiz Unsal is currently with the OECD, on leave from the IMF. Kalpana Kochhar is now Development Policy and Finance Director at the Gates Foundation. The authors thank the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for the financial support for the study.

BLOG-2099×600-Gender-blog-Sylisia-iStock-by-Getty-Images-1387456778

Women Struggle for Equal Pay and Progression at Central Banks

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424729" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/image2.jpg 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



How African countries can join forces with an emerging Global South partner



To maintain resilience as a new multipolar world emerges, countries must adapt their foreign relations strategies to manage political and economic risk. Colombia, a country traditionally focused on its ties with the United States, Europe, and Latin American neighbors, is now turning its attention towards Africa. After a 26-year hiatus, the country has announced that a high-level delegation of some 60 representatives will be visiting South Africa, Kenya, and Ethiopia on Friday. The delegation, representing both public and private sectors, will be led by Colombia’s first Vice President of African descent, Her Excellency Francia Márquez, as part of the country’s 2022-2026 Africa Strategy. The 8-day visit not only reflects a strategic diplomatic shift for Colombia but also an opportunity to leverage the unique contributions of its Afro-Colombian population in fostering stronger relations with African countries.



With an economy similar in size to South Africa, Colombia has emerged from a decades-long armed conflict to becoming a dominant player in trade in the Western Hemisphere. Thanks to its strategic location, the country acts as a bridge between North and South American countries, joining Mexico, Chile, and Peru as part of the <a href="https://alianzapacifico.net/en/what-is-the-pacific-alliance/">Pacific Alliance</a>—a Latin American trade bloc with a combined population of 230 million people that makes up approximately 38 percent of Latin American and the Caribbean’s GDP.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-colombia-reimagines-its-foreign-policy-leveraging-the-african-diaspora-as-diplomatic-change-agents">Colombia reimagines its foreign policy, leveraging the African diaspora as diplomatic change agents</h2>



After a historic 2022 election in which Colombia transitioned to a popular government led by President Gustavo Petro and Vice President Márquez, the political will for genuine engagement with Africa has never been more lucid than in Petro’s very own presidential inauguration speech, in which he emphasised:



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
“We will seek greater alliances with Africa, where we originate from; we will seek an alliance of Afro-descendant communities in the Americas.”
<cite>&#8211; President Gustavo Petro</cite></blockquote>



During her election campaign, Márquez also expressed the African idea of ubuntu under the banner of “Soy porque somos” (“I am because we are”) to promote solidarity between communities. When the Nigerian economist Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), <a href="https://www.plenglish.com/news/2023/02/20/wto-director-makes-official-visit-to-colombia/">visited Colombia</a> in February on a work agenda to find alternatives to strengthen the economy, she discussed with Márquez a vision of for the country&#8217;s relationship with Africa.



Today, Colombia boasts the second largest population of African descent in Latin America after Brazil. According to the latest census data, Colombians of African descent constitute around 10% of the country’s population—a figure highly contested by <a href="https://www.okayafrica.com/afro-colombians-demand-to-be-counted-in-census/">civil society organizations</a> who believe it to be a vast undercount equivalent to “statistical genocide” in a country where historical estimates put the figure as high as 26% of the population, according to Colombia’s National Plan for the Development of the Afro-Colombian Population. Notwithstanding, this demographic plays a crucial role in bridging the gap between Colombia and Africa; their cultural and historical ties, language skills, and personal exchanges with the African continent make them natural ambassadors for fostering stronger relations. As evidence of this strategy, three renowned Afro-Colombian leaders have already been named as diplomats on the African continent: María del Rosario Mina Rojas, Ambassador to South Africa; Pedro León Cortes Ruiz, in Kenya; and Daniel Garcés Carabalí, in Ghana.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Challenges and opportunities for Africa</h2>



Building stronger ties with Colombia will not be without challenges. Colombia lags considerably behind countries like Brazil in trade and political ties with Africa. Colombia&#8217;s trade relationship with Africa in 2022 was still notably small, and no African country <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/COL">ranked</a> among Colombia&#8217;s top 30 trading partners. Linguistic and cultural differences, logistical barriers, as well as a perception issues and unfamiliarity on both sides of the Atlantic may throttle the development of deeper ties in the short term. Moreover, Colombia must balance its relationships with traditional partners while pursuing new alliances, ensuring that it does not alienate its long-standing allies in the process.



Despite these challenges, African countries should maximise the opportunities for cooperation with Colombia as a function of their national interests. For African countries, partnering with Colombia can provide access to Latin American markets, expertise in areas such as infrastructure development, agriculture, tourism, and knowledge transfer. For Colombia, increased trade opportunities, knowledge exchange, and collaboration on global issues like climate change and security can help diversify its economy and reduce dependence on traditional partners.



Countries such as Rwanda, have important experiences to share on improving gender equality and innovative post-conflict economic transformation. Meanwhile, Kenya can build a common voice with Colombia on environmental issues with its recent rise in <a href="https://www.ifaw.org/international/people/opinions/kenya-climate-change-discussions-africa">leading climate change</a> discussions across Africa. Kenya and Colombia are also well-positioned to design and implement innovative solutions to mitigate climate risks that can serve as a model for the rest of the world. At the moment, the only direct flight connections between South America and Africa were via Angola or Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, could provide a new route to Colombia to help improve connectivity, tourism, and business travel. Beyond increased market access for its products and services, South Africa can share experiences about its reconciliation processes and provide technical assistance in different areas of strength such as: infrastructure, research and development, as well cooperation in areas such as education, culture and the arts.



From an African Union perspective, Agenda 2063&#8217;s <a href="https://au.int/en/agenda2063/goals">seven key aspirations</a> align harmoniously with the Colombian administration’s current focus on peace, security, equality, and environmental protection. The AU also recognises the important role of the African diaspora, officially designated as the Sixth Region of Africa, in the development of the continent. This provides an opportunity to mobilise the Spanish-speaking diaspora to actively participate in the development of Africa, by creating platforms for dialogue, exchange, and skills transfer. Engagement with Colombia also provides an opportunity to advocate for the rights of its Afro-Colombian population, by addressing issues such as racism, discrimination, as well as their historical economic and social exclusion.



In these unprecedented times of pandemic, climate change, supply chain, and monetary risks, the need to reinvigorate South-South cooperation has never been more pronounced. As our continent and other Global South countries such Colombia seek to overcome the final remnants of colonialism and exploitation, now is the right time for African leaders to seek genuine partners. It is only by leveraging our joint strengths and aspirations that we can effectively face the challenges of the 21st century.



—



Recognised as the Global Top 100 Most Influential People of African Descent (MIPAD) Under 40 and the African Travel Top 100 Global Tourism Personalities in 2019, Fabien Anthony is an accomplished tech entrepreneur, special advisor on international cooperation, and current Chairman of the Pan-African Council, a global leadership and strategic development organisation dedicated to the advancement of Africa and her Diaspora.

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Colombia’s Pivot to Africa: shifting the paradigm in a multipolar world

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424483" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Healthy-and-high-yielding-maize-grown-using-frass-fertilizer-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Last month,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/12/scientists-warn-of-phosphogeddon-fertiliser-shortages-loom" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">scientists warned</a>&nbsp;of a looming “phosphogeddon.” They worry that the world’s misuse of phosphorous may exacerbate the fertilizer crisis, further disrupting global food production and worsening hunger emergencies in Africa and elsewhere.&nbsp;



There is one small insect whose powers could be harnessed to help avoid “phosphogeddon” and address the fertilizer crisis: the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/case-study/black-soldier-flies-inexpensive-and-sustainable-source-for-animal-feed/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">black soldier fly</a>.&nbsp;It is not a pest or disease vector—the adults can’t even bite. But the larvae are a different story. Their voracious appetites offer the opportunity to recycle bio-waste into organic, high-quality fertilizer, while also contributing to waste management and animal feed.



This could help solve many of the world’s challenges. Fertilizer supplies tightened and prices skyrocketed in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—tripling in sub-Saharan Africa. This further squeezes the continent’s farmers, many of whom are already coping with drought, while others contend with flooding, and most struggle to grow food in depleted soil.&nbsp;Meanwhile, higher fertilizer prices also push up the price of food, making regular meals unaffordable for millions of people. Over the last year,&nbsp;60 percent of people in East Africa and 40 percent in West Africa faced chronic hunger.



Chemical fertilizers cannot meet the continent’s needs.&nbsp;They have always been too expensive and inappropriately formulated to serve the legions of smallholder farmers in African countries. Today, Africa only accounts&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news22_e/igo_14nov22_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">for 3-4 percent</a>&nbsp;of global fertilizer use. In addition, synthetic fertilizer use is carbon intensive, contributing significantly to climate change, the biggest threat to African agriculture. Production of ammonia alone—the world’s most-used nitrogen fertilizer—accounts for as much as&nbsp;<a href="https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/fertilizer-and-climate-change" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">1-2 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions</a>.



Africa needs local solutions that can regenerate soil health in the face of climate change—while helping abate it.&nbsp;The black soldier fly could be one such solution. When its larvae feed on waste, they produce a byproduct called frass. It consists of whatever original waste is left over, insect feces, and the larvae’s cast-off skins.&nbsp;While it certainly doesn’t sound appealing to human ears, this organic material is akin to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.680312/full" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a wonder drug</a>&nbsp;for soil.



It can be further treated to give a high-quality, nutrient-rich fertilizer with the ability to improve soil health, boost crop yield and nutritional quality, suppress pests and diseases, and increase farmer profit margins.



Saprophytic insects—those feeding on nonliving organic matter—such as black solder flies take only five weeks to recycle organic waste into high-quality organic fertilizer that has more nutrients than most existing commercial organic and synthetic fertilizers. Studies by the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.icipe.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">International Centre for Insect Physiology and Ecology</a>&nbsp;have shown that frass fertilizer can increase the yields of key crops, including maize (7 – 27 percent), tomatoes (22 – 135 percent), and French beans (38 – 50 percent) compared to existing commercial fertilizers.



Frass fertilizer is also less expensive than synthetic fertilizers. It costs US$854 per hectare every season to fertilize with synthetics, but only US$390 per season using frass fertilizer over the same area.&nbsp;Furthermore, frass fertilizer has been found effective in suppressing devastating crop pests such as potato cyst nematodes, root knot nematode, and cabbage and onion root maggots, as well as tomato bacterial wilt disease.



And there is another upside to frass fertilizer: it puts abundant waste to good use. Africa’s bio-waste generation capacity of 125 million tons annually provides sufficient grist for insect farming and frass fertilizer production. Currently, only&nbsp;<a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/68270" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">4 percent of waste</a>&nbsp;in Africa is recycled, compared to 35 percent for Europe.



The time is ripe for private capital investments in African agribusinesses that can increase the production of frass fertilizers.&nbsp;Cutting-edge research is critical to fine tune production and optimization, build capacity, and generate the information necessary for commercialization.



The world needs to embrace the urgency of the fertilizer crisis and think beyond outdated or expensive technologies that are unaffordable to many farmers. Such investments, and enabling government policies, are essential for solutions such as frass fertilizer to take hold, helping producers ensure consistent supply to meet the growing demand.



The world has the tools—and the bugs—to develop sustainable, local solutions that improve soil health and human health, as well as food security and nutrition. When farmers can use these tools in their fields, we can solve many challenges at once, improving African lives and livelihoods in the process.



Dr. Chrysantus Mbi Tanga is a Senior Scientist and the Head of Insects for Food, Feed and Other Uses (INSEFF) Programme at icipe. Betty Kibaara is a Director, Food Initiative at The Rockefeller Foundation, Africa Regional Office.

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New insect-composted organic fertilizer could help solve Africa’s soil health and crop yield crises

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="648" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-820x648.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424261" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-820x648.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-300x237.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-114x90.jpg 114w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-768x607.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k-1536x1214.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/9363412183_a97bfcd52e_k.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via Flickr</figcaption></figure>



In recent decades, the Horn of Africa has increasingly played host to a fierce competition for influence, stemming from geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East. Typically, such dynamics feed fears of destabilization, particularly in a region with such a troubled recent history of violence.&nbsp;



While these struggles for influence have, at times, exacerbated problematic dynamics, for the most part these fears have proved to be exaggerated. For the most part, African governments have managed to extract significant material benefits, while Middle Eastern leaders have not militarized the region to the extent that some thought possible at times of maximum tension. A case could even be made that, far from destabilizing the region, power politics in the Middle East have materially contributed to the region’s stability.



The War on Terror, and later the regional tensions exacerbated by the 2011 Arab Uprisings, were the most important catalyst for increased Middle Eastern engagement in the region.&nbsp;



Somalia, in many ways, has been the most contested area. Qatari involvement in the country dates back to the 2000s, but since then, several Middle Eastern powers have used their wealth to support different candidates. The 2012 and 2017 presidential elections were particularly crucial moments, with Qatar’s preferred candidates victorious both times. The UAE, meanwhile, has secured deals with the breakaway Somali state of Somaliland and the semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland to establish bases and commercial ports there. Turkey, a regional rival of both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, has established a base in Somalia and explored the possibility of a naval base in Sudan.&nbsp;



Eritrea has also been seen as a strategically important ally – used for a time by the Iranians to smuggle arms to Gaza. In 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE persuaded President Isais Afwerki to abandon ties with Iran, instead joining their coalition against Tehran’s Houthi allies in the Yemen war and allowing Abu Dhabi to use Eritrea’s port of Assab as a military base. As part of this effort to strengthen their military footprint in the region, Riyadh also turned to neighbouring Djibouti, agreeing to build a new Saudi military base there.&nbsp;



Despite this, the much-feared militarization of the region has not, for the most part, come to fruition. While the UAE did use Assab as a base for a while, it later dismantled much of its military presence as it reduced its role in Yemen. Meanwhile, the bases in Somaliland and Puntland have not yet been developed, nor has the Saudi base in Djibouti. Turkey’s Mogadishu base was primarily used for training Somalia’s security forces rather than to house the Turkish military, and the Sudanese naval position never materialized.&nbsp;



This is due in large part to the fact that tensions within the Middle East itself have cooled, with notable rapprochements between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, alongside the recent improvements in Iran-Saudi ties. The 2022 Somali election, which saw far less external competition than previously and the victory of a candidate with a ‘no enemies’ philosophy, serves as a useful indicator for the decreased level of competition.



This has meant that nations in the horn have been able to reap the rewards of the increased engagement, without suffering the consequences of destabilization. Indeed, this new strategic landscape has opened the door for Arab powers to make proactive contributions to the region’s stability. The UAE has been especially proactive, using diplomacy and strategic investment to grease the wheels of peace. The UAE’s role in brokering the historic 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea after 18 years of diplomatic deadlock particularly stands out.&nbsp;



Elsewhere Abu Dhabi has also helped improve critical infrastructure, such as the ports of Assab, Bosaso, and Berbera. In the latter case, it further sponsored a new Berbera-Ethiopia highway, alongside the UK, that will allow the port to act as a major new outlet for Addis Ababa’s trade, boosting Somaliland’s economy. Other Middle Eastern states have similarly invested in infrastructure, notably Turkey’s upgrading of Mogadishu’s airport and port while Ankara, alongside Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Doha have all significantly increased their deployment of aid to the Horn. Meanwhile Turkey and the UAE have joined the US, UK and other western governments in helping to train Somali (and, in the UAE’s case, Somaliland) security forces and coastguards in the twin battles against Jihadism and Piracy.



For the most part, then, leaders in the Horn can see this period of engagement as a success story. Partly, this is due to active efforts to limit the political influence of the Middle East, notably by Eritrea and Ethiopia, but is also down to the significant presence of other global powers in the Horn, notably the US, UK, EU, and China. Moreover, the rapprochements between key Middle Eastern powers have meant that concessions given away by African leaders have not been negatively exploited.&nbsp;



In a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, however, the challenge for leaders in the Horn, and in the Middle East, will be whether they can continue this balancing act. Middle Eastern states can clearly contribute to peace, stability, and development in the Horn – but the risks of destabilization should not be ignored.

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Can Middle Eastern powers help stabilize the Horn of Africa?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="234" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-820x234.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424142" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-820x234.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-300x86.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-160x46.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-768x220.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-1536x439.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/blog-2099x600-weoch3-debt-kim-haughton-imf-photos-51982143308-2fc4aaa497-o-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



Public debt soared to a record during the pandemic, topping global gross domestic product. Now, with government debt still elevated, the rise in interest rates and the strong US dollar are adding to interest costs, in turn weighing on growth and fueling financial stability risks.



With several economies already in debt distress, we explore in an analytical chapter of our latest World Economic Outlook what policies work best to durably reduce public debt ratios (or debt to GDP). 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2023/04/7429912/4677676/weo-chapter-3-charts-01_crop.png" alt="weo ch3 chart 1"/></a></figure>



Using two decades of data, we find that an adequately tailored fiscal contraction of about 0.4 percentage point of GDP—the average size in our sample—lowers the debt ratio by 0.7 percentage point in the first year and up to 2.1 percentage points after five years.



But the timing of the adjustment can impact what effect it has. The probability of reducing debt ratios through consolidation improves from the baseline (average) of about half to three-quarters when undertaken during a domestic and global boom or periods during which financial conditions are loose and uncertainty is low.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2023/04/7429936/4677677/weo-chapter-3-charts-02_crop.png" alt="weo ch3 chart 2"/></a></figure>



Design also matters. In advanced economies, spending cuts are more likely to lower debt ratios than increasing revenues. Odds of success also improve when fiscal consolidation is reinforced by growth enhancing structural reforms and strong institutional frameworks.



This explains why fiscal consolidation hasn&#8217;t typically reduced debt ratios in the past—the right conditions and accompanying policies weren’t present.



There are important factors for why fiscal consolidation alone didn’t reduce the debt ratio level in about half of the cases: first fiscal consolidation tends to slow GDP growth. Second, exchange rate fluctuations and transfers to state-owned enterprises or contingent liabilities can offset debt reduction efforts. These “below-the-line” operations can increase debt, despite improvements in the primary balance (which would ordinarily drive down debt). Examples include unexpected transfers that the government provided to state-owned enterprises in Mexico (2016), and clearance of payments past due by the government in Greece (2016), which were all recorded as below the line items in the fiscal account.



Debt restructuring



While well-designed fiscal consolidation and growth-friendly structural reforms can help reduce debt ratios, they may not be sufficient for countries in debt distress or facing increased rollover risks. In such cases, debt restructuring—a renegotiation of the terms of a loan—may be necessary.



Restructuring is typically used as a last resort. It’s a complex process that requires the agreement of domestic and foreign creditors and involves burden sharing between different parties (for example, between residents and banks in most domestic restructurings). It can incur significant economic costs and there are reputational risks and coordination challenges.



But when combined with fiscal consolidation, it can significantly reduce debt ratios—on average, up to 8 percentage points or more after 5 years in emerging markets and low-income countries.



Seychelles, for example, had a debt ratio of over 180 percent in 2008, when the global financial crisis hit. After debt restructurings with both official Paris Club and private external creditors that involved a large reduction in face value of debt, this ratio sharply declined to 84 percent in 2010. Prudent fiscal policy combined with high GDP growth helped sustain the reduction in debt ratios.



We also found that it matters how deep the restructuring is. Public debt in Belize remained elevated despite two sequential restructurings, suggesting that even when done early, debt will stay high if the treatment is not deep enough. By contrast, debt ratios in Jamaica were significantly reduced with early and deep restructurings that were executed through an extension of maturity and a reduction in coupon payments rather than a reduction in the face value of debt. Notably, the fiscal space created by the debt service relief from restructuring was saved, as reflected in its strong fiscal consolidation.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/10/how-to-tackle-soaring-public-debt?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=govdelivery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><img decoding="async" src="https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/fancy_images/USIMF/2023/04/7429938/4677678/weo-chapter-3-charts-03_crop.png" alt="weo ch3 chart 3"/></a></figure>



For countries that can afford a moderate and gradual reduction in debt ratios, it’s best to undertake fiscal consolidation when conditions are favorable, along with policies that include structural reforms aimed at promoting growth. Having strong institutional frameworks can prevent &#8220;below the line&#8221; operations that undermine debt reduction efforts and ensure that countries indeed build buffers and reduce debt during good times.



Countries facing increased funding pressures or already in debt distress may have no viable alternative than a substantial or rapid debt reduction. Fiscal consolidation will likely be needed to regain market confidence and recover macroeconomic stability in these countries. In addition, policymakers should also consider timely debt restructuring. If pursued, the restructuring will need to be deep to reduce debt ratios.



For restructurings to succeed, global policymakers must also promote mechanisms to enhance coordination and confidence among creditors and debtors. The Group of Twenty Common Framework should be improved to bring greater predictability, earlier engagement, a payment standstill, and further clarification on comparability of treatment.

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How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt

As we approach the 2030 deadline for the achievement of critical Sustainable Development Goals, including the eradication of hunger and poverty, many opportunities are emerging for Africa to substantially reduce its food insecurity, create well-paying jobs, and promote the economic success of its women and youth, through transformed agricultural and food systems.



Indeed, the reality that the continent’s population is rapidly increasing – to reach 2.4 billion by 2050 – highlights the need for increased and sustainable agricultural production, alongside systems for delivering food around the continent – ultimately leading to food security and gainful employment.



Luckily, Africa has nearly all the natural resources needed to transform its agricultural productivity, including an agile and enlightened youthful population, large portions of arable land, and a climate profile that favors agricultural production when complemented with techniques like soil nutrient replenishment and irrigation.



However, the transformation that we seek will only come forth through dedicated leadership from governments, the private sector, development organizations, scientists, and farmer organizations. These stakeholders are critical in promoting and instituting a favorable policy environment for agriculture sector growth; spurring technology and innovation, and advancing financing and market opportunities.



Thankfully, around Africa, we have numerous participants that are actively driving transformation within their different specializations. For example, in Uganda, previous Africa Food Prize (AFP) winner Dr. Emma Naluyima, is a super-trainer on closed-loop farming, with her 1-acre enterprise serving as a global showcase of profitable and environmentally friendly agriculture. Across the continent, in Senegal, another AFP Laureate Baba Dioum is widely-recognized for his voice in policy development, a voice that has promoted cross-border agricultural trade in West Africa and helped to significantly advance the trade dimension of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP).



I also must recognize the outstanding leadership of AGRA President Dr. Agnes Kalibata in the transformation of Africa’s food security and agricultural development, through her previous work as Rwanda’s agriculture minister where she, in a remarkably short time, turned the country into a farming success story. Under her leadership, AGRA has grown into a pioneering institution that is driving the transformation of Africa’s smallholder farmers’ work from a struggle to survive into thriving enterprises. Now at the beginning of its third strategic period, we expect from the institution interventions that increase farmers’ access to modern inputs, technologies and production knowledge; financing, and well-paying markets.



Alongside AGRA, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), also stand out for their steadfast and inspiring



commitment to a research agenda that aligns with Africa’s traditions, and the evolving needs of African farmers and consumers. There are many more individuals and organizations that are doing exceptional work in driving the change that Africa desires.



It is in recognition of such commitment that the AFP was founded nearly 18 years ago by various food systems partners, including AGRA, and has since feted over 26 deserving laureates from 10 African countries – including Naluyima, Dioum, Dr. Kalibata, IITA and ICRISAT. The US$100,000 award has consistently been issued even through the troublesome years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its relevance in Africa’s annual awards calendar has been majorly sustained by its stellar administrative and selection panel led, until now, by H.E. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, the former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, a cherished African leader and a well-respected farmer.



H.E. Chief Obasanjo’s stewardship of the African Food Prize for the past seven years, has been nothing short of a meticulous show of exemplary leadership. It is, therefore, with great pride that I accepted to take over from him as the chair of the AFP committee, a gigantic task, but which I am ready for, assured by the support of the exceptional team he bequeathed me. On which note, I invite all food system champions in Africa to join me in wishing the good Chief all the best as he continues leading the continent’s food systems transformation in many other different capacities.



Finally, it is with great pleasure that I now invite applications and nominations for the 2023 prize, which will be issued at Africa’s Food Systems Summit (AGRF) in my home country, Tanzania, in September. I am eager to see the quality of nominations that will make it to the final panel. I am also calling upon everyone in Africa and beyond to keenly engage with the AFP process and to continue emulating its laureates in leading the change required to drive food systems transformation for Africa’s prosperity. AFP nominations page: <a href="https://africafoodprize.org/nominate/">https://africafoodprize.org/nominate/</a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424076" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Kikwete-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">H.E. Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete is the former President of Tanzania and Chair, Africa Food Prize.</figcaption></figure>

Kikwete

It is important to celebrate Africa’s food systems transformation champions

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="501" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-820x501.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-423986" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-820x501.webp 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-300x183.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-147x90.webp 147w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-768x469.webp 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA-1536x939.webp 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/responsive_big_webp_HA0pAukoNhwQcuviOByNoEWkBu64vKAsuSGywInipKA.webp 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">250 Chief Strategy Officers from 20 industries recently shared vital emerging inflexion points. Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto</figcaption></figure>



Disruptions and developments that suddenly affect us often brew on the periphery, or under the surface, well before they break through. These inflexion points – the moment when those trends break through – cause business assumptions to change. They are high impact shifts; as described by Andy Grove, they will “push you to make fundamental change in your business strategy. Nothing less is sufficient”.



The good thing about inflexion points is that that they can be anticipated before they emerge. To do this, we must increase our ability to “see around corners”. This can be done by “getting out of the building”; by getting in direct contact with our broader environment and including different perspectives. What might be foreign and invisible from where I sit could be very present from where someone else is. What might be at the edge or the periphery for my organization might be at the core for another in a different sector.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-inflexion-points-for-chief-strategy-officers">Inflexion points for Chief Strategy Officers</h2>



Last week, more than 250 Chief Strategy Officers from more than 20 industries got out of their building. Some of them joined us for a cross-industry horizon scan in which they explored, prioritized and shared perspectives on what they believe might be some of the emerging signals that are currently brewing at the edge and could potentially break through as inflexion points over the next three to five years. Here are some of the key elements that were discussed:



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-1-new-hubs-new-corridors">1. New hubs, new corridors</h3>



There is an increasing focus on how countries are becoming more insular. The major US-China corridor is contracting, and COVID has led to a more widespread deceleration of globalization – or even deglobalization.



However, what we see under the surface when following movement of capital, goods and people paints a different picture. While this is yet to fully materialize, we observe the emergence of new corridors that are yet to consolidate but that might soon overtake the major ones we know today. This could point to more globalization rather than less.



What is key here is the need to understand better how new patterns are emerging. While value chains have evolved gradually in the past, new forces are emerging that could shape and accelerate their evolution, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals or the energy transition, creating a new set of interdependencies.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-2-understanding-the-green-economy">2. Understanding the green economy</h3>



While most are rightly focused on the mechanics of the transition to low-carbon energy systems, Strategy Officers highlighted an underappreciation of the impact that it will have in redefining current economic and geopolitical dynamics. The transition will create new winners and losers within and across countries.



A new economy of raw materials, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite, will emerge. In a scenario that achieves the Paris Agreement goals, the total demand for those materials would rise significantly by “over 40% for copper and rare earth elements, 60-70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium”. Electric vehicle and battery storage have already overtaken consumer electronics as the largest consumer of lithium. There is a need for a better understanding and appreciation of where these new strategic resources are, who owns them and what this will mean.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">3. The Great Unretirement</h3>



Workforce and talent are omnipresent in every discussion – whether it is about hybrid work, or about skills and reskilling. But one of the most underappreciated trends concerned employees who are over 50 years old and how they will affect labour markets over the next few years.



By 2031, we could expect a mass retirement of the baby boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964), who will by then have reached the age of 67. This is expected to <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2022/article/projections-overview-and-highlights-2021-31.htm">drive a decline</a> in the labour force participation rate until 2031. There are, however, mixed signals within this broader trend. For instance, while many older workers left the workforce during the pandemic, the waning of COVID-19 and the skyrocketing cost of living are reversing this trend. Some even talk about a “Great Unretirement”, highlighting how workers over 50 are returning to paid employment across advanced economies.



These still seem to be taking companies by surprise. There is a need to think more seriously about that age group to avoid talent shortages, and a significant loss of knowledge and experience within the workforce. The OECD estimates that the development of a multigenerational workforce and better opportunities for older employees could drive an increase of 19% of GDP per capita over the next 30 years.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">4. From owning data to data-sharing</h3>



For several decades, businesses across industries have relied on proprietary data to gain a competitive edge. The growing prevalence of cloud computing, the internet of things (IoT) and other technological advancements are steering this trend in the opposite direction of collaborative data-sharing.



But most companies are yet to realize the potential of shared data and its ability to unlock new opportunities. Gartner predicts that organizations that promote-data sharing will outperform their competitors on most business value metrics. The same research highlights that “Data and analytics leaders who share data externally generate three times more measurable economic benefit than those who do not”. Companies that embrace shared data stand to benefit from increased collaboration, improved efficiency, and the ability to tap into a broader pool of expertise. Those that cling to proprietary data risk being left behind as their competitors forge ahead with innovative solutions.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5. Beyond the hype of exponential AI</h3>



As usually happens with technology, artificial intelligence has followed the pattern of going from hype to disillusionment. Mainstreaming terms such as “generative AI”, ChatGPT’s success is the latest to reignite debates about the future of the technology.



There is now a common agreement that “smart machines, bots and systems powered mostly by machine learning and artificial intelligence will quickly increase in speed and sophistication between now and 2035”. A recent Gartner study highlights that by 2025, 30% of outbound marketing messages from large organizations will be synthetically generated, up from less than 2% in 2022. By 2030, a major blockbuster film could be released with 90% of the film generated by AI.



If the recent frenzy triggered by ChatGPT should teach us something, it is the need to focus on the following more prominently. Firstly, generative AI should be approached as a general-purpose technology, meaning that is has the potential to affect and alter our economy and society. Past general-purpose technologies include the steam engine or electricity. Secondly, while ChatGPT has focused a lot of our attention recently, it represents only one of the many applications of generative AI, which could also include drug design, development of new materials, synthetic data etc. Finally, there is a need to safely and ethically experiment and develop new use cases for this technology, as a vital way of informing the development of our approach and governance moving forward.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Corporate change agents</h2>



Seeing an inflexion point coming is only the beginning of the journey. The next steps include defining strategic options about what your organization will do about them and finally your ability to bring your organization with you in the implementation of the change required. Remember, that these inflexion points have high level of impact and will likely require more than small tweaks to your strategy, but rather a significant and deep rethinking.



Building on this, one of the key elements that came out of the discussion with Strategy Officers was about the evolution of their role, which includes the need to develop a deep and specialized understanding of an increasingly broad range of areas. Strategy Officers are no longer experts in a given industry, but have to become proficient in sustainability, talent, AI, quantum computing, or anything else that might be required. In addition, while their ability to scan and see around corners is key, they increasingly need to act as internal translators on those topics, as integrator and change agent in the company.

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Industry strategy: 5 potential inflexion points on the radar of Chief Strategy Officers

Water underpins all life forms, and the water situation in Africa is diverse. Within a country or region, the situation can shift from water scarcity to abundance. This necessitates tailored measures to protect sources of water from— water catchments, lakes, rivers, streams, or wetlands— without disrupting the natural systems and livelihoods that depend on it.



Across the continent, there is an urgent need to conserve freshwater ecosystems to safeguard the important services that they play in supporting communities as a source of water for domestic use and agriculture, as well as supporting livelihoods through fishing and the use of water for energy production, whether hydropower or cooling. This is in addition to being home to 12 percent of the Earth’s known species, including mammals, birds, fish, insects, and plants—a richer diversity of life forms per unit area, compared to land and oceans.



However, these healthy freshwater ecosystems and their sources are dwindling, as water flows and levels are receding. The continent, and indeed the whole world, is staring at a crisis that is both about water scarcity and loss of biodiversity. This is due to multiple threats facing freshwater ecosystems, including climate change; invasive species, such as water hyacinth; and overdependence, as well as direct degradation, from farming, industry, and pollution. These risks need to be addressed to maintain water’s many benefits to African people and the planet. It is just as urgent to conserve its rich biodiversity with the continent’s population projected to double by 2050, exerting more pressure on natural resources.



Unfortunately, when it comes to protection, freshwater systems have historically not received as much attention as land and oceans, a trend that is starting to be reversed. Leading with science, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is bringing together governments, communities, NGOs, and private sector, to help protect and restore these sources of life that we depend on.



Solutions to protect these water sources must be long-lasting and tailored to an area&#8217;s unique features. For instance, different approaches would be needed for the wet Congo Basin covering nine countries, and the expansive Okavango, the world largest inland freshwater delta, whose terminal basin never reaches the sea and almost all its water is from Angola. Besides, because it is expensive to move water from one place to another, it calls for locally applied solutions that also consider the prevailing circumstances and do not disrupt economic activity.



Development and the environment can co-exist, with neither suffering at the expense of the other. TNC has been at the forefront in championing replicable, nature-based, public-private approaches across the continent with a track record of success. This is transforming <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/what-we-do/our-insights/perspectives/gabon-30-30-leading-conservation/">Gabon</a> into a model for smart development, applying conservation science in freshwater and hydropower planning to support its green ambition; and using a web-based freshwater conservation blueprint tool to evaluate development scenarios for ones that benefit people and nature the most while minimizing harm. In the <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/africa/stories-in-africa/protect-freshwater/?vu=africawater">Lake Tanganyika</a> basin that covers Tanzania, Zambia, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is about rapidly scaling fisheries co-management best practices, combining ground-breaking science, local knowledge, and proven methods. In the <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/magazine/magazine-articles/okavango-delta-african-oasis/">Okavango Basin</a>, this has taken a multi-pronged approach that proactively bundles conservation efforts with smart development and sustainable financing to maximise positive economic, social, and environmental benefits, while forestalling risks and mitigating unavoidable impacts. And in Kenya, the Upper Tana-Nairobi Water Fund has inspired cities across the continent to set up programs that work with communities to protect watersheds for the benefit of upstream and downstream users. Africa needs more initiatives like these.



To accelerate the pace and scale of conserving freshwater ecosystems, significantly more investment is needed. Different actors, from government and development finance institutions to non-profits and communities, also need to work together to arrive at low cost, high impact and replicable solutions. Local communities must be an integral part of such efforts, as stewards and holders of knowledge and rights, leaning on their traditional approaches while protecting their social, cultural, and economic interests.



To sustain our rivers and lakes for the incalculable benefits to people and planet, we must all coordinate and collaborate our conservation actions, including those for cross-border rivers and lakes. It is time for the world to work together in implementing the goals for protecting and restoring freshwater sources, while avoiding risks, for the benefit of generations to come.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="697" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-820x697.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-421601" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-820x697.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-300x255.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-106x90.jpg 106w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-768x653.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-1536x1305.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Ademola-Ajagbe-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ademola Ajagbe is the Regional Managing Director, Africa at The Nature Conservancy</figcaption></figure>

Ademola-Ajagbe-2

Tailored protection of lakes and rivers must benefit communities

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="750" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-820x750.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423901" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-820x750.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-300x275.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-98x90.jpg 98w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-768x703.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-1536x1406.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Jehaan-Anthony-2-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Jehaan Anthony, Nedbank Commercial Banking Area Client Manager: Cape Town Western Suburbs</figcaption></figure>



Climate risk is our reality, and we need to understand that our actions today will shape the future of business and society.



Economists have warned of the potential economic costs of damage from climate-related disasters and extreme weather could be staggering. In 2018 the US alone incurred a loss of around $160 billion due to such disasters, and these numbers are only expected to increase as hazards become more complex and unpredictable.



In Africa, the energy crisis coincides with the dual threat of climate change, which is driving the imperative for renewables, not only to plug energy gaps but also to deliver power to drive sustainable economic growth as the continent has seen a rapid escalation of<a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/west-and-central-africa-climate-migrants/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;extreme weather events</a>&nbsp;such as tropical cyclones, severe droughts, wildfires and floods. Already, climate change in Africa has caused an estimated&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/africa-and-climate-change-conference/a-59641178" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$38 billion</a>&nbsp;in damage in two decades. Adding to this is a heavy reliance on fossil fuels – South Africa, which relies on coal for&nbsp;<a href="https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/too-cool-coal-future-south-africas-energy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">80% of its power</a>, is also said to be warming twice as fast than the rest of the world.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Rolling power outages are red-flagged as a high-risk scenario that’s expected to continue until at least April 2023 and probably a lot longer. In June last year, President Cyril Ramaphosa raised the<a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-06-10-increase-to-100mw-embedded-generation-threshold-will-give-oomph-to-south-african-economy-says-ramaphosa/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">&nbsp;licensing threshold</a>&nbsp;for self-generation power to 100 MW, with an option to sell into the grid, which will allow residential estates, shopping centres, mines, factories and other providers to not only generate their own electricity but also to power nearby communities and help support economic recovery. This will help reduce dependency on Eskom and the government, and the first power-generation project in the private market has recently been approved by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa.



As the green bank, which has been on a sustainability journey for some years, Nedbank has fine-tuned our solutions for the market and offers specialised finance structures such as longer payback periods, structured repayments around the savings that the infrastructure provides, and offtake deals where the user does not own the equipment.



That said, going green encompasses far more than turning to renewable energy, and our first recommendation is to find ways to operate more efficiently before investing in costly systems.



There are always ways to use electricity more efficiently, reduce water use in operations, recycle water wherever possible and process waste in a more resourceful manner.&nbsp;



Understand what your goal is. If you are planning to go off the grid, understand the size of the inverter (how much power you are going to need) and then build your system by buying components and adding more as and when required or as budget allows.



While it is inescapable that there is a&nbsp;need for urgent action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, as failure to act now could result in huge financial losses and irreversible damage to the planet, businesses must take the lead in the fight against climate change by adopting sustainable practices and reducing their carbon footprint.



That is why funding solutions become an integral part of the solution. Nedbank Commercial Banking, for example, offers term debt funding for its commercial and agriculture clients. This provides for funding of capital expenditure to expand public access to safe and affordable drinking water, provide access to adequate sanitation facilities, improve water quality to be fit for human consumption, and increase water use efficiency through water recycling, treatment and reuses.



In short, this solves for rising water costs, mitigates against water interruptions due to drought, water scarcity or failing infrastructure prevents unnecessary or preventable wastage and avoids business downtime.



Another is funding provided for construction, maintenance, manufacture and other components for clean energy to generate or transmit energy that would include wind, solar, hydro, biomass and geothermal power, or funding of energy efficiency initiatives that include energy-efficient technologies in new and refurbished buildings, energy storage, district heating, smart grids and appliance products.



The benefits are that this would enable businesses to generate sufficient energy for their own use, thereby mitigating the impact of rising energy costs, minimising the impact of power interruptions, and ensuring income generation capacity for the company and employees during power cuts. Both options could take the form of an extended repayment term of up to 10 years, considering the savings when calculating cash flow or affordability, competitive pricing and direct ownership versus third-party ownership.



Nedbank Commercial Banking also provides term debt funding for commercial and agriculture clients to invest in environmentally sound technologies and processes that promote the recycling of post-consumer products, the upgrading of infrastructure and retrofitting of industries to facilitate increased resource efficiency, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse and promote sustainable agricultural practices. This addresses the rising energy and raw material costs hindering businesses from sustained growth, enabling community upliftment through job creation and the prevention of missed revenue opportunities.



In this regard, structured solutions are tailored to each business, with competitive pricing and off-balance sheet financing.



South Africa is not alone in facing energy and water scarcity challenges – it affects the whole world.&nbsp;Businesses must prioritise awareness around energy challenges and water scarcity in their operations and supply chains to mitigate against climate risks, while ensuring that clients derive value that will ensure that they are on a sustainable path while reducing their carbon footprint.



Jehaan Anthony is Nedbank Commercial Banking Area Client Manager: Cape Town Western Suburbs

Jehaan-Anthony-2

Climate Risk Is Our Reality, and We Need Actions Today to Shape the Future of Business

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="672" height="672" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/thumbnail_image0.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423789" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/thumbnail_image0.jpg 672w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/thumbnail_image0-300x300.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/thumbnail_image0-90x90.jpg 90w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kevin Obiero is Centre Director of Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Chair of Board of Directors for African Center for Aquatic Research and Education, and IISD Experimental Lakes Area Board Member</figcaption></figure>



It is with great excitement,&nbsp;mild&nbsp;trepidation,&nbsp;and much hope&nbsp;for&nbsp;the future that I look forward&nbsp;to March 22&nbsp;which doubles up this year as&nbsp;World Water Day and the kick off&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.unwater.org/news/un-2023-water-conference" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">UN Water Conference.</a>



The first of its kind in&nbsp;almost&nbsp;50 years—&nbsp;it presents a golden opportunity&nbsp;to bring the world together to&nbsp;underscore the significant role of water for the Sustainable Development Goals and for the health and prosperity of people and the planet. We can tackle&nbsp;the&nbsp;plethora&nbsp;of issues&nbsp;threatening&nbsp;our freshwater supplies—a difficult but surmountable feat.&nbsp;



While&nbsp;I’ll&nbsp;be unable to travel to the&nbsp;continent of the Laurentian Great Lakes&nbsp;to speak&nbsp;in person,&nbsp;I’ll&nbsp;be dialed in from the shores of Lake Victoria&nbsp;in Kenya&nbsp;to discuss the future of Africa’s very own suite of Great Lakes at one of the many official&nbsp;dialogues and&nbsp;events&nbsp;dotted around the Big Apple.



Undoubtedly,&nbsp;the conference&nbsp;would not be complete&nbsp;without a comprehensive exploration of&nbsp;all&nbsp;the world’s&nbsp;freshwater supplies.



Not forgetting North America’s&nbsp;Great Lakes basin&nbsp;(a critical resource of&nbsp;drinking water,&nbsp;sustenance&nbsp;and economic support&nbsp;for tens&nbsp;of millions across the continent),&nbsp;Africa’s own suite of&nbsp;Great Lakes&nbsp;spread across&nbsp;Eastern and Southern Africa—to&nbsp;whose protection&nbsp;I have&nbsp;passionately&nbsp;dedicated my professional life—should not be missing from any&nbsp;discussion&nbsp;about the future of freshwater.&nbsp;Holding&nbsp;more than&nbsp;a&nbsp;quarter of the world’s available surface water,&nbsp;those&nbsp;lakes underpin the well-being and livelihoods&nbsp;of over 50 million people.



As the conference’s theme of&nbsp;“accelerating&nbsp;change” so&nbsp;succinctly&nbsp;articulates,&nbsp;bodies of fresh water, from&nbsp;Michigan to Malawi, on which we all so vitally depend are threatened.&nbsp;From&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cleveland.com/open/2022/10/federal-money-to-be-used-to-combat-algal-blooms-on-great-lakes.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unsightly,&nbsp;sticky harmful algal blooms</a>&nbsp;that uninvitedly camp out&nbsp;on&nbsp;the lakes in summer,&nbsp;biodiversity loss,&nbsp;plastic pollution, or new pharmaceutical drugs&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/14/drugs-have-dangerously-polluted-the-worlds-rivers-scientists-warn" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ending up in freshwater fish</a>,&nbsp;our freshwater lakes&nbsp;aren’t exactly&nbsp;flourishing.&nbsp;



Just last month, I&nbsp;co-chaired&nbsp;<a href="https://www.agl-acare.org/2022annualmeeting" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a pan-African&nbsp;summit on the African Great Lakes</a>&nbsp;in Dar es Salaam,&nbsp;bringing together&nbsp;hundreds of&nbsp;scientific&nbsp;voices from across the continent&nbsp;all too familiar with the&nbsp;aforementioned threats.



The&nbsp;rallying call among the&nbsp;summit attendees&nbsp;and local communities, as crystalized in many of the commitments that came from it can be neatly summarized:&nbsp;“Less talk,&nbsp;more action”.&nbsp;



What does this look like?&nbsp;And what does it mean for the upcoming UN Water Conference?



Without&nbsp;sustainable&nbsp;funding,&nbsp;Africa will struggle&nbsp;to keep pace with&nbsp;developed countries and&nbsp;attract and retain the next&nbsp;generation of scientists and&nbsp;researchers. For us,&nbsp;to&nbsp;develop a strong next generation of change-makers, we must invest and provide opportunities&nbsp;for&nbsp;early career scientists&nbsp;and&nbsp;remove barriers to entry for women.&nbsp;Even today, women in science are still under-represented at almost every level,&nbsp;particularly&nbsp;in decision-making&nbsp;positions.



In our highly interconnected world, science needs to translate into action and societal impact. When it comes to freshwater science, it means working together—across borders—to define and harmonize research priorities, set standard water sampling techniques and protocols, then digitizing and making available the data generated by those processes, so we can achieve shared goals much more easily.



The support of the international community remains critical, but assistance&nbsp;should not necessarily&nbsp;flow one way.&nbsp;A brighter future is now&nbsp;possible, but only if we are all willing to&nbsp;truly&nbsp;listen and&nbsp;collaborate&nbsp;across silos&nbsp;and continents&nbsp;to&nbsp;achieve&nbsp;<a href="https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">internationally agreed-upon water-related goals and targets.</a>



Within all the discussions, let’s not forget that conserving freshwater ecosystems starts with local communities as custodians of these resources and that these communities need support. This is a&nbsp;critical&nbsp;and urgent matter for all of us, and it is our collective future that we are seeking to improve and shape.



In this&nbsp;sense, Africa’s Great Lakes&nbsp;harbour valuable lessons for the world.

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UN Water Conference Should Highlight African Great Lakes

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="751" height="800" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-751x800.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423644" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-751x800.jpg 751w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-281x300.jpg 281w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-84x90.jpg 84w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-768x819.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-1441x1536.jpg 1441w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_0164-scaled.jpg 1921w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px" /></figure>



By Rabab Fatima, UN Under-Secretary-General and High Representative, UN-OHRLLS and Xiangchen Zhang, Deputy Director-General, WTO



As the world’s least developed countries (LDCs) work to build more resilient economies and lift their populations out of poverty, international trade offers them a proven route towards sustainable development. This is why trade is a key pillar of the <a href="https://www.un.org/ldcportal/tags/doha-programme-action-dpoa">Doha Programme of Action</a> which maps out commitments between LDCs and their development partners for the 2022-2031 decade.



With the LDCs’ share of global trade having stagnated at <a href="https://unctad.org/topic/least-developed-countries/chart-december-2021">less than 1%</a> in recent years, things need to change. Much more can and should be done to help LDCs gain the benefits of trade, which include better quality jobs, stronger economic growth and increased productivity. The Doha Programme of Action sets an ambitious target of doubling this share by 2031.



To gain a deeper understanding of what LDCs could explore to boost their exports, our offices organized regional consultations in Ethiopia and Cambodia. These were arranged in the context of the <a href="https://www.un.org/ldc5/">5th United Nations Conference on LDCs (LDC5)</a>. &nbsp;The consultations were attended by nearly 100 senior trade officials from over 40 LDCs, who discussed their trade challenges and priorities, plus how the development community can best support them in achieving their ambitions.



Here are some <a href="https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/ldc5_regional_consultations.pdf">key takeaways</a>:



<ol class="wp-block-list" type="1">
<li>Multilateral cooperation can help LDCs tap opportunities in digital trade</li>
</ol>



Digital trade represents a fast-growing opportunity for LDCs to expand their share of global trade on a more equal footing with higher-income countries. For example, selling through digital platforms offers exporters lower-cost access to customers in other countries which would have been difficult otherwise.



Multilateral and regional cooperation could help LDCs grasp this opportunity more effectively and derive more benefits from digital trade, participants argued. For instance, findings from the <a href="https://dti.eui.eu/">Digital Trade Integration Project</a> show that LDCs have fewer policies in place that enable digital trade than do high-income countries. Yet, when LDCs participate in those discussions, they can often access technical assistance that helps them upgrade their policies and regulations to facilitate digital trade.



Such forums also give LDCs the chance to voice concerns and argue for their interests when trade rules or practices that impact them are being negotiated.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>LDCs need targeted and nimble capacity-building support</li>
</ul>



Finding more effective and efficient ways to boost LDCs’ capacity to trade is critical.



LDC participants flagged they need more support from the international community, especially in reducing trading costs, addressing productive capacity constraints, and participating in global supply chains. They also highlighted partner practices that have proven most impactful, including engaging the private sector and facilitating country ownership.



Participants added that future multilateral trade support for LDCs should be more inclusive and fit for purpose. A stronger coordination mechanism, with robust monitoring, learning and evaluation capabilities, is needed to ensure that LDCs’ changing needs and requests are responded to nimbly.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Regional integration can help LDCs boost their trade and become more resilient</li>
</ul>



Deepening regional integration can help LDCs expand and diversify their exports and strengthen the resilience of their economies.



Full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), for example, could result in a 34% increase in inter-African trade by 2045, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa. AfCFTA promises to be particularly beneficial for key productive sectors, like agriculture and services, helping reduce African economies’ reliance on energy and mining. This should make LDCs on the continent more resilient against external shocks.&nbsp;



Regional integration is also becoming central to Asian LDCs’ graduation strategies. For example, as well as being a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Cambodia recently signed bilateral free trade agreements with China and the Republic of Korea and is currently negotiating another such agreement with the United Arab Emirates.



Another trend is for LDCs in the region to build regional networks via preferential trade arrangements that include digital and sustainable development provisions.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>LDC graduation and transition strategies require further focus</li>
</ul>



As more countries graduate from LDC status, participants expressed concern that some will lose trade preferences related to market access. Although some LDC trading partners already grant LDC graduates a transition period, LDCs want more of their trading partners to extend such preferences. They would also like to continue benefiting from LDC-specific special and differential treatment provisions in the WTO.



A sustainable graduation support facility (iGRAD) designed to support a smooth transition for graduating LDCs was launched at LDC5. With over a third of all LDCs already on track to graduate from LDC status – and the <a href="https://www.un.org/ldcportal/tags/doha-programme-action-dpoa">Doha Programme of Action</a> calling for an additional 15 to be supported to meet the graduation criteria by 2031 – the international community has an urgent responsibility to help them develop comprehensive transition strategies.



The global trading landscape is evolving fast. Trade priorities of tomorrow will not be the same as trade priorities of today. It is high time that LDC policy makers start exploring new frontiers to bring greater opportunities to businesses, to increase income and to raise living standards of one billion living in LDCs.

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A path to prosperity – harnessing trade to deliver for LDCs

Capturing the dividends from women’s economic equity. Too many women are locked out of economic opportunities, which is not only unfair but also harms growth and resilience for all. 



We know that in countries with greater gender inequality just closing the gap in women’s labor force participation could increase economic output by an average of 35 percent. Progress, however, is slow to come and shocks, such as health and climate disasters, social unrest, and war continue to worsen gender inequality by directly affecting women’s lives and livelihoods or keeping them out of school and work.



Appropriate economic and financial policies can help change these negative outcomes, improving economies by supporting the recovery and building resilience against future shocks. A dividend for women, in other words, is a dividend for all. For instance, while the pandemic set women further back everywhere, it also drove policy innovations. Several extraordinary pandemic assistance programs targeted women and brought more people into social safety nets. The latter makes it easier to provide targeted assistance to cope with the current food and fuel price spikes.



For policymakers, there are well-proven solutions to adopt gender-sensitive macroeconomic actions.



First, step up investment in women’s human capital. The gains from providing women equal access to food, healthcare, and education are especially large in emerging and developing economies. Think of cash transfers that help families afford the basics in countries with less developed social safety nets.



Brazil introduced the Emergency Aid cash transfer program early in the pandemic, which provided double the benefits to women-led households. IMF staff estimates show that the poverty rate among such households would have increased from 11 percent to more than 30 percent without Emergency Aid; instead, it fell to about 8 percent. And Egypt recently expanded cash assistance to low-income single mothers helping them keep their children healthy and in school. In Togo, mobile technology helped expedite emergency financial support during the pandemic, especially benefitting women.



The second confirmed solution is enabling women to work outside the home or start their businesses. Reforms to taxation, public spending, financial infrastructure and regulations, as well as labor markets can help . Providing access to quality and affordable childcare frees up more women to work and also creates jobs directly.



In Norway, the expansion of universal childcare increased the likelihood of mothers’ employment by 32 percentage points. In emerging and developing economies, access to mobile phones and the internet opens the door to economic opportunity. For instance, IMF research shows that traditional and digital finance is helping close the gender gap in access to financial services, including microlending—resulting in lower income inequality and higher growth.



A third area to tackle is biases. Out of 190 countries surveyed, the World Bank found that women were on equal legal standing with men in just 12 countries. Gender-based discrimination in social institutions costs the world economy $6 trillion according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. But in recent years, countries have reduced these costs through social and legal actions such as curbing underage marriage, criminalizing domestic violence, and increasing the number of female elected officials.



Fourth, increasing the representation of women in leadership positions is also critical. IMF analysis shows that a greater presence of women in financial institutions and financial policymaking goes hand in hand with greater financial resilience. And in fintech firms and the corporate sector, more women in leadership is associated with better performance and profitability, respectively.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-imf-s-gender-strategy">The IMF’s Gender Strategy</h2>



The IMF has supported members in deploying and improving gender policies for a number of years. And recently, our Executive Board approved the first comprehensive IMF Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender to help our members adapt pro-gender equality policies to their unique circumstances.



The strategy recognizes that macroeconomic and financial policies affect women and men differently, often unintentionally. We are helping policymakers identify and remedy these biases by applying a gender lens to our main activities—from our regular country policy surveillance to how we design and implement programs to our capacity development support.



We have supported increased spending on women in our program countries. For example, Egypt expanded pre-school availability and improved the safety of public transport under an IMF-supported program, helping women get to jobs. And São Tomé and Príncipe, with the support of an IMF program, launched an initiative on gender budgeting—the use of fiscal policies and institutions to promote women’s equality across government programs. We also quantified the productivity benefits of getting more girls into high school in Senegal and other countries.



Under the new strategy, the Fund will work in the years ahead with our 190 members and external partners to expand both the breadth of our policy recommendations and bring greater rigor in our analysis to help more countries tailor and deploy policies that support gender equality.



Over time, gender-sensitive macroeconomic and financial policies will result in higher growth, greater economic stability and resilience, and lower income inequality—a dividend not just for women, but for everyone.

13-8

How to Close Gender Gaps and Grow the Global Economy

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423548" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/GA1305882_SR470041.jpg 1999w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Credits: Gates Foundation.</figcaption></figure>



It won’t matter how advanced technology is if the people who need it most can’t access it



We live in a world with a startling disconnect between rapidly developing technology and the women and girls it is leaving behind, especially in Africa. As we celebrate International Women’s Day under the “DigitAll: innovation and technology for gender equality” theme, it’s time to recognize this, refocus, and urgently act on it to ensure digital advancements and technology serve women and girls and do not widen gender gaps even further.



Progress towards gender equality is stalling in most of the developing world, including in Africa. According to the most <a href="https://www.equalmeasures2030.org/">recent gender equality index</a> for the Sustainable Development Goals, progress towards gender equality in sub-Saharan Africa has stagnated for at least the past two years, a situation made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic.



However, looking beyond the impact of the pandemic, globally and in Africa, policymakers continue to overlook a crucial pillar to bridging gender inequality today – providing women with equitable access to digital technologies.



In an increasingly digitally driven world, women in Africa are being left behind in the digital evolution. In Africa, women only make up 30% of the jobs in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Women are also less likely than men to access and use a mobile phone, smartphone, or go online. The digital divide has become the new face of gender inequality.



Digital technologies are rapidly transforming all spheres of our lives – work, education, relationships, economies, industries, and governments. Advancements in digital technology offer immense opportunities to address development and humanitarian challenges in Africa. Technology is a crucial driver of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), with the unprecedented growth of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) intersecting our daily lives. It has and continues to create a range of opportunities for innovation. For example, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, with the support of technology, will enable women to trade beyond borders and significantly change the face of trade in Africa.



Unfortunately, these opportunities also present a risk of perpetuating existing patterns of gender inequality. Growing inequalities are becoming increasingly evident in the context of digital skills and access to technologies, with women being left behind and excluded from the digital transformation, its benefits, and potential employment as a result of the digital gender divide. Women and girls are left out of digital transformation, its benefits, and potential employment. Multiple crises including COVID-19, conflicts, the growing cost of living, and climate change, have magnified the unequal pace of digital transformation within and across countries. Digital technologies are also creating unprecedented threats to the wellbeing of women and girls. Online spaces provide new venues for violence against women, offering perpetrators increased anonymity and impunity. Women in the public eye are targeted more than men, impacting their lives, and limiting their participation in public life.



It is hard to overstate just how much overlooking digital access for women in Africa is limiting the continent’s progress. Women in Africa remain underrepresented in the digital realm, despite data from UN Women showing that excluding women from the digital world has reduced the GDP of low- and middle-income countries by $1 trillion over the past decade. A number that could grow to $1.5 trillion by 2025.



We urge African leaders, governments, and the private sector, to take the lead in fostering women’s access to technology, promote and celebrate women in tech, and support the achievement of their full political, social, and economic participation.



This International Women’s Day presents a great opportunity to remind policy makers of the importance of addressing the gender gaps in technology and innovation in a way that transforms social norms and empowers women and girls. The issues of literacy (including, digital literacy); access (to the internet, gadgets, and technology); and safety (safety from online violence) are critical to the technology and innovation conversation



To access any digital space, one needs both functional and digital literacy. Support for women and girls in technology and innovation should be available along the entire pipeline – from primary school to employment. We urge African governments to embed digital capacity in educational curriculums; prioritize digital training of women and girls in government policies and programs to equip women with functional digital literacy and promote the use of digital technologies to start and grow businesses.



Even when a woman is trained, if she has no access to the internet or devices, her participation in digital space is limited. According to the <a href="https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/FactsFigures2021.pdf">International Telecommunications Union (ITU)</a>, in Africa, women account for only 24% of the population using the internet, while men account for 35% of users. In rural areas, where internet penetration rate is lowest, only 15% of the population access the internet, which means that rural women access even less. Using a mobile phone is hampered by affordability, lack of electricity, patriarchal norms, and minimal access to or knowledge of relevant content. This must be addressed, as research indicates that mobile money accounts have become indispensable instruments that provide women greater financial autonomy than cash payments. In Uganda, for instance, women who received digital microfinance loans earned 15 percent more than those who received cash loans. So, when money is deposited into a woman&#8217;s mobile account, it is more difficult for others to claim it as their own.



We urge African governments and the private sector to build infrastructure and regulate markets to broaden access, affordability, and use of technology by women and girls, especially in remote rural areas, migratory routes and in refugee camps. An additional barrier women face towards digital access is online violence.



A survey of women journalists from 125 countries found that 73% of respondents had suffered online violence in the course of their work, 30% reporting that they self-censored in response. Technology often aggravates the level of violence perpetrated by individuals, organized groups or institutions that have the objective of controlling, harming, silencing or discrediting women. We call on governments to ensure that the digital space is safe for women and girls, design of digital protection laws should factor online gender-based violence laws and training of users, innovators, security, and law agencies. We call on individuals to be respectful in the digital space.



In addition, African leaders must ensure programs are available to change the current narrative portraying women and girls as passive users. We need to recognize and celebrate women championing technology and promote women and girls’ leadership in technology. <a href="https://africa.unwomen.org/en/where-we-are/eastern-and-southern-africa/liaison-office-to-au-and-uneca/african-girls-can-code-initiative-agcci#:~:text=The%20initiative%20aims%20to%20train,)%2C%20education%20and%20coding%20sectors.">The “African Girls Can CODE”</a> initiative, designed by UN Women, the African Union Commission and ITU to equip young girls with digital literacy, coding, and personal development skills, is one example of such initiative. Girls from 34 African countries are trained as programmers, creators, and designers, placing them on-track to take up education and careers in ICT and coding allowing them to control and influence the digital landscape as they see fit. Sex-disaggregated data must be collected and used to support gender-responsive innovation, determine the extent of the gender gap and monitor progress in bridging it.



<a href="https://techforgenerationequality.org/">The Action Coalition on Technology and Innovation</a>, launched as part of the Generation Equality Forum, is key to driving momentum and commitments to advance gender equality through technology and innovation, and to cementing alliances between Governments, the private sector, civil society, and the UN System to achieve this ambition. The Government of Rwanda is one of the Action Coalition leaders here in Africa.



Conversations on artificial intelligence (AI) are featuring heavily in global health discourse not least because of the promised transformative nature of such technologies. It is crucial that these discussions do not lose sight of the core objective, which is to ensure that technology infrastructure, institutions, and systems and regulations are designed with women and people from the Global South in mind. The transformative nature of technology is meaningless if it is inaccessible to those who need it the most.



UN Women and the Gates Foundation have prioritized innovation, technology, and gender data as key drivers of change to achieve gender equality and the SDGs. We believe that inclusive technology and digital education is crucial for a sustainable future on the African continent. Each of us can play a role: governments, the private sector, and individuals. Join us in making innovation and technology work for digital gender equality.



Dr Maxime Houinato is the UN Women Regional Director for East and Southern Africa and Rachel Toku-Appiah is the director, Program Advocacy and Communications, Africa at the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

GA1305882_SR470041

DigitALL: Let us make innovation and technology work for everyone

It is one year already since I took on the role of Vice President, Corporate Communications &amp; CSR at Airtel Africa, an organization I have served for 21 years (20 of which were in Nigeria). While this is neither an appraisal of my work (it will be gratuitous for me so to do) nor a celebration of the anniversary (one pastime I don’t relish), the past few days in Nairobi, Kenya, where I attended the Airtel Africa-UNICEF Convention, provided me a great opportunity and, indeed, the inspiration, to reflect on the work my colleagues and I have been doing &nbsp;in partnership with our friends at UNICEF since 2022 to provide children of Africa, our future leaders, with access to digital education.



Let me start on a rather somber note by regretfully acknowledging that Africa currently sits precariously on the edge of a steep and slippery cliff with regards to educating her fast-growing children and youth population. The level of “learning poverty” (the inability to read and understand a simple text by the age of 10) across the continent is as disturbing as the statistics of out-of-school children, with both stubbornly headed south. The bad situation has unfortunately been aggravated by the horrifying impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to lockdowns and school closures. To put these sorry assertions in a much clearer (or rather gloomier) perspective, a 2019 World Bank study had sadly estimated that “48 per cent of children worldwide and 87 per cent of children in sub-Saharan Africa are ‘learning poor’.” There couldn’t be a more insidious threat to the future of the continent than when over 70% of the population is educationally disadvantaged and, therefore, economically vulnerable.&nbsp;



I need not here dilate on the excellencies of education for it is already well known that perhaps it is the most important factor in making people fit members of regularly organized society. Again, it is well known that education is a leveler; it helps in bridging the divide between the rich and poor as well as facilitating the shattering of known glass ceilings. Regrettably, education also makes a good man (or woman) better and a bad one worse, as we’ve seen in several instances where otherwise knowledgeable people have deployed their knowledge in doing evil. That said, education, at the end of the day, offers more advantages than otherwise. Ignorance and illiteracy are not alternatives.



Ironically, it has to be acknowledged that Covid-19, with all its deleterious and perilous consequences, has also opened the eyes of Africans and their leaders to not only the power of education but also the importance and urgency of implementing digital learning plans in their various countries. It must be acknowledged that literally every government in Africa has emplaced strategies, with all their imperfections, to connect their children, teachers and schools to various digital platforms to not only promote but also improve teaching and learning. This is where conscientious technology companies like Airtel Africa stepped forward as enablers to provide the needed and necessary support.



Like other socially responsible corporate citizens, Airtel Africa, through her operations in 14 African countries, joined hands with African leaders to bridge the yawning learning gap occasioned by the school closures due to the Covid-19 lockdowns. On her part, Airtel Africa zero-rated several government-approved websites and digital learning platforms to enable teaching and learning. This proved to be a great palliative, but like every known palliative, it did not adequately address the needs. For example, there were millions of children who, due to their unavoidable circumstances of poverty and locations could not afford the devices to access the free online educational resources, where they existed. In other cases, it was impossible to access the websites and platforms due to lack of internet facilities as most parts of the continent are still low on teledensity (number of mobile telephone users per 1000 population).



In acknowledgment of these huge and dangerous gaps and the potential of digital connectivity, I therefore, Airtel Africa, in pursuit of her vision to Transform the Lives of Africans, decided to invest $57m in the provision of&nbsp;Access to Quality Education, which later became one of the pillars of her Sustainability Strategy. At the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, Airtel Africa announced a 5-year partnership with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) to deliver this initiative, which in spirit and letter aims at connecting a minimum of 1400 schools and a million children to digital education.



In my honest opinion, there couldn’t have been a better partnership than this, with two institutions very passionate about and highly invested in the future of the African child. Personally, it has been an honor and privilege leading the Airtel Africa team co-creating and co-delivering the plans and activities in pursuit of this noble cause. As I pen this piece, three countries namely Kenya, Nigeria and Madagascar (in that order) have launched the initiative. 10 other countries, Chad, Niger, DRC, Congo Brazzaville, Gabon, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda and Rwanda will launch before March 31, 2023, all things being equal.



By launch, we mean connecting selected government schools, especially those in remote communities, to the internet using Airtel’s high-speed internet and providing digital devices like tablets, laptops, desktop computers or television sets. It also means zero-rating and granting access to some government-approved educational websites and learning platforms for teachers and children of not only the selected schools but the entire communities. In Kenya, for example, 30 schools were connected, and two platforms were zero-rated namely Elimika (for teachers) and Kenya Education Cloud (for students), with over 600 teachers and 20,000 students already using the resources.



Not unexpectedly, it has not all been smooth sailing. There are still some obstacles on the way. For instance, the level of commitment to and understanding of the importance and urgency of this intervention are not at the same high levels across the continent. Hence, we still have some governments insisting that either Airtel Africa or UNICEF or both pay(s) tax for providing free data to enable children of their countries not only to continue learning but to also sort of catch up with their peers in other parts of the world. In any event, it is not a lost cause, I believe, because as we make headway in some countries, others will begin to appreciate the need to make hay while the sun is still shinning.



Interestingly, the third pillar of this initiative (one is connecting schools and two is zero-rating websites) is to engage in advocacy in support of providing access to digital education. So, between Airtel Africa and UNICEF, we will continue to engage the various governments and educational authorities to make them appreciate the enormity of the challenge, the urgency of the solutions and the importance of partnering with us to empower the future leaders of Africa. Of course, it goes without saying that our arms are wide open and outstretched to welcome partners, who are also passionate about and invested in this pursuit as we are. The larger the ecosystem, the better!



I also believe there is a whole lot to be said about the state of educational infrastructure across the African continent. In many of the countries, public schools are either literally nonexistent or totally decrepit. Some children still trek over 10 kilometers to attend school while some study under the shade of trees. Sometimes, one wonders how a school without desks and chairs or even blackboards could be amenable to digitization. This is where the words of the Group CEO and Managing Director of Airtel Africa, Dr. Segun Ogunsanya, resonates with us, the advocates and champions of this movement. According to him, “we need to think of new ways of learning beyond the construct of the four walls of a classroom.” This is the future. This is the way to go. Airtel Africa and UNICEF are irrefragably dedicated to re-imagining education to meet Africa’s post-Covid-19 and indeed 21st century realities. That in essence, my dear friend, is what this whole story is all about. Thank you.



At the end of the two-day Airtel Africa-UNICEF Convention, having looked back at what we have done, what we are yet to do, as well as the challenges and the lessons, we leave reassured that we are doing the right thing-at the right time. The next four years will test our capabilities, but we are all going back to our various countries or OPCOs (as we say in Airtel parlance) feeling privileged to be part of such a noble objective, indeed a sacred mandate, to empower Africa’s future leaders.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="735" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-820x735.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423435" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-820x735.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-300x269.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-100x90.jpg 100w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-768x688.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-1536x1376.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Emeka-Oparah_01022022_Airtel_Business-Headshots-18962-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Emeka Oparah, Vice President Corporate Communications &amp; CSR, writes from Nairobi.</figcaption></figure>

Airtel Business Headshots

Connecting Africa’s future leaders to Digital Education

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="538" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-820x538.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423341" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-820x538.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-768x504.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-1536x1008.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/GettyImages-1247386478-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">LAGOS, NIGERIA &#8211; FEBRUARY 22: Posters and banners of candidates are seen on the billboards ahead of the general elections in Lagos, Nigeria on February 22, 2023. Contenders for Nigeria&#8217;s president and national parliamentary seats concluded their campaign rallies Tuesday ahead of Feb. 25 general elections. The upcoming Nigerian presidential election is set to be a landmark moment for the country, with nearly 100 million people eligible to vote for a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari, who is stepping down after two terms in office. (Photo by Emmanuel Osodi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Surging population growth will see Nigeria emerge as the third largest country in the world by 2050. If properly harnessed, the so-called demographic dividend could turn Nigeria into a global economic engine – as it did in China, India and Southeast Asia. If it isn’t, a youth bulge facing a paucity of employment opportunities breeds instability, threatening to sink the region and precipitate a crisis with global ramifications.



Insecurity is already strangling Nigeria’s potential. As millions head to pivotal polls later this month, it stands stark as the top issue in voters’ minds. From Islamist insurgents in the North and secessionist agitators in the South East to pervasive banditry and kidnapping for ransom, the country is awash with threats to civilians’ personal safety.



Once the region’s security linchpin, Nigeria’s internal problems now drain its peacekeeping capacity. Consequently, the Sahel, the arid strip where the Sahara meets Sub-Saharan Africa, is on fire. Mali and Burkina Faso have both experienced military coups, triggered by flailing civil wars with Islamist insurgents. If security continues to deteriorate, migratory flows to Europe and the West will intensify. Neither the region, nor Europe – whose leaders have faced political pressure since the 2015 migration crisis – can afford for Nigeria to fail.



Subsequently, the security credentials of the three leading electoral contenders warrant attention. One is a former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar; the others former state governors, Peter Obi and Bola Tinubu. Abubakar is a perennial contender; this will be his sixth shot at the Presidency. 61 year-old Obi is seen as a fresh faced progressive who has won the support of the country’s youth. Bola Tinubu is running for the governing party All Progressives Congress, given the sitting president Muhammadu Buhari has reached his two-term limit.



Both Abubakar and Tinubu have sought to position themselves as experienced law-and-order candidates who will resolve Nigeria’s security issues by beefing up the capabilities of the police and military. Obi, on the other hand, propagates a consensual, social justice and dialogue-driven approach aimed at tackling the deeply entrenched inequalities that exist in Nigerian society that he sees as the root causes of the country’s security issues.



Although Obi’s words will sound appealing to liberal Westerners, his arguments should be treated with some scepticism. Last May, Obi’s home state of Anambra was targeted by the Indigenous People of Biafra, a violent secessionist group in the South-East of the country, in a series of attacks that killed 14 civilians, including a pregnant woman and several children. IPOB is designated as a terrorist organisation by the Nigerian government, yet Obi has consistently taken <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/558028-throwback-ipob-members-not-terrorists-i-live-with-them-peter-obi.html?tztc=1">a soft touch approach</a> to the group and refused to condemn them. This is concerning, particularly as he is seen as the frontrunner, according to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/who-will-win-nigeria-s-presidential-election-peter-obi-leads-in-opinion-poll">poll conducted by Bloomberg</a>.



The candidate’s <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/peter-obi-excludes-ipob-from-nigerian-terrorist-groups-lists-boko-haram-iswap/">refusal to criticise</a> IPOB has fuelled rumours of ties to the group. The separatists have denied these allegations, which aren’t substantiated with convincing evidence. But it is plausible that Obi is hesitant to call out IPOB for fear of alienating sympathisers. The South-east is both the area the group seeks independence and Obi’s electoral stronghold. His reticence could be a temporary political calculation that will be abandoned in office, but there are fears that the separatist struggle in the southeast could spiral out of control under an Obi presidency.



The Labour candidate has also had to defend his questionable security record as governor. He was forced to <a href="https://dailypost.ng/2022/10/24/peter-obi-opens-up-on-awkuzu-sars-killings/">deny allegations</a> that he was involved with the Awkuzu Special Anti Robbery Squad, an elite police unit that oversaw a brutal <a href="https://dailypost.ng/2022/10/24/peter-obi-opens-up-on-awkuzu-sars-killings/">reign of terror</a> in Anambra state during Obi’s governorship. SARS were known for detaining suspects, often on trumped up charges, and allegedly murdering many of them.



In contrast to Obi, PDP candidate Abubakar is seen as a more experienced candidate. However, his long career in politics has been dogged <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/feb/28/1">by allegations</a> of corruption – which itself poses challenges for peace in Nigeria. The corrosive effects of graft spread like tentacles through state institutions, not least military and security agencies. <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/06/03/memorandum-on-establishing-the-fight-against-corruption-as-a-core-united-states-national-security-interest/">The White House</a> has recently defined the fight against corruption as a core national security interest. Incidentally, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nigeria-election-atiku-exclusive-idUSKCN1PT0TR">Abubakar was prevented from entering the US</a> for 10 years due to graft.



The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/19/dubai-property-oasis-for-nigeria-s-corrupt-political-elites-pub-81306">described him as</a> someone “well-known to international law enforcement agencies” and his multi-million dollar property assets in Dubai <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/pandora-papers/united-arab-emirates-a-go-to-offshore-haven-for-africas-political-and-business-elite-leaked-records-show/">were detailed in</a> the Panama Papers leak. In January, an audio recording <a href="https://saharareporters.com/2023/01/10/audio-leak-pdp-presidential-candidate-atiku-admits-using-fasawe-andy-uba-syphon-billions">was leaked by</a> one of Abubakar’s former aides in which the candidate allegedly describes how he successfully siphoned away state funds from public work projects during his tenure as vice-president. For the record, Abubakar <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigeria-presidential-candidate-atiku-denies-new-allegation-corruption-bbc-2023-02-01/">rejected the allegations</a>.



The Nigerian Armed Forces already have <a href="https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/523769-corruption-weak-judiciary-fuel-impunity-in-nigerian-army-sss-police-u-s-govt.html?tztc=1">significant problems with graft</a>. As a result, salaries – when they are paid – <a href="https://saharareporters.com/2022/10/01/nigerian-army-personnel-lament-delayed-salaries-non-increment-pay-over-10-years">have remained stagnant</a> despite galloping inflation in the country. Morale on the front line has waned. If corruption infects the allocation of security contracts, the fight against terror will suffer once more.



Whether Abubakar will be able to grapple with such forces is questionable. Indeed, this could be one of the reasons why Nigeria finds itself in its current state and it might also explain Obi’s surging popularity: few seem to believe that an establishment man like Abubakar is likely to deliver the changes that the country needs.



Tinubu too is tainted with graft allegations. Though tax revenues quadrupled under Tinubu’s tenure as Governor of Lagos (1999-2007), he <a href="https://www.theafricareport.com/35131/bola-tinubu-the-kingmaker-who-would-be-king/">allegedly has ties to Alpha Beta Consulting</a>, a company contracted to collect state taxes in return for a commission. However, he is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9f1d9cc0-7e01-4bcc-812c-96114381bd73">regarded as</a> an effective governor of Lagos who laid the groundwork for the prosperity boom that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8b24d40a-c064-11e1-982d-00144feabdc0">the state has experienced</a>.



When he took power in 1999, Peter Lewis described the city as in <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=governing+lagos&amp;rlz=1C9BKJA_enIT929IT930&amp;oq=governing+lagos&amp;aqs=chrome..69i57j69i59.2004j0j7&amp;hl=en-GB&amp;sourceid=chrome-mobile&amp;ie=UTF-8">stationary crisis</a>. Despite its problems, it is now a megacity with the country’s best infrastructure, a growing tech industry and cultural sectors, and technocratic institutions – as well as being the only state that doesn’t rely on federal oil exports to fund budgets.



Security is also regarded as one of Tinubu’s strong points and he is often credited with driving down high crime rates in Lagos by reforming and properly funding the police. He established the <a href="https://rrslagos.gov.ng/">Rapid Response Squad</a>, a highly-trained and well-equipped unit tasked with targeting the city’s gang problem. Social programmes were also designed to pull at-risk youth away from criminality, thereby making the state safer. Nigeria at large is a more complex challenge, but his supporters believe his track record on security could translate to the national level.



Regardless of who eventually wins the race, Nigeria’s next president faces daunting security challenges. But the ramifications of regression or, worse, collapse will be global.



Mat&nbsp;Whatley&nbsp;is former Security Chief for the EU Election Mission in Abuja. He is a British army veteran and former head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Donetsk Ukraine, the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia in the Caucasus, as well as former OSCE spokesman in then Yugoslavia.

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