<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-510532" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2162833993-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN &#8211; JULY 20: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks offstage after speaking at a campaign rally at the Van Andel Arena on July 20, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Trump&#8217;s campaign event is the first joint event with his recent vice presidential pick Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and the first campaign rally since the attempted assassination attempt his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



Former President Donald Trump would likely take his trade war and economic decoupling policies to new levels if he were elected to a second term in the White House, experts told CNBC.



While Joe Biden also placed strategic competition with China at the forefront of his economic policy, economists and trade experts largely expect Trump would further cut and destabilize trade relations between the world’s two largest economies.



“A Trump victory is highly likely to increase trade and economic hostilities between the U.S. and China, ramping up the trade and financial decoupling between the two countries,” said Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University.



Trump is widely expected to face incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden bowed out of the race and endorsed her. According to Prasad and other experts, Harris’ approach to China would likely be similar to that of Biden.



While Trump and Biden both took a protectionist stance, their strategies and tactics differed greatly, explained Prasad, who previously served as head of the International Monetary Fund’s China and financial studies divisions.



“Trump relied on tariffs to keep out imports from China. Biden — while keeping those tariffs in place and even increasing tariffs on certain imports — has focused more on restricting China’s access to technology transfers and computer chips,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-tariff-man"><a></a>‘Tariff man’</h2>



Trump’s biggest diversion from Biden-era trade policy would likely be tariffs levied on China.



The self-proclaimed “tariff man” set off a trade war with Beijing during his first term. He placed a series of duties on $250 billion of Chinese imports, disregarding warnings the levies would raise prices and hurt consumers. 



After defeating Trump in 2020, Biden retained his predecessor’s tariffs and even added his own, announcing stiff new duties on about $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, lithium batteries, steel and aluminum. 



Experts told CNBC they expect Harris to largely continue Biden’s tariff policy. Trump, on the other hand, has already proposed increasing rates on Chinese imports by at least 60%. 



“I certainly don’t know if Trump is willing to pursue such extreme measures, but I do believe that he’s likely to increase tariffs to some degree during a second term,” said Stephen Weymouth, a professor of international political economy at Georgetown University.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Economist Stephen Roach said Trump raising tariffs in a second term would be the “functional equivalent of the nuclear option” in international economic conflict.&nbsp;



William Reinsch, Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the tariffs risk another trade war that would end most goods exchange between the two countries at an “enormous economic cost.”



Even if Trump’s aim is not a full decoupling but forcing Beijing into negotiating a more favorable trade deal, Reinsch said there’s little reason to believe that would work.



The Trump administration reached a “phase one trade deal” with China in 2019, but few terms were honored and subsequent phases never materialized.



Some commentators said Trump picking JD Vance as his running mate further signals the Republican is serious about his tariff plans. The senator from Ohio has been a staunch supporter of tariffs on China, identifying the country as the biggest threat facing the U.S. 



“If I was a China policy maker, this selection would have me shaking in my boots,” said Arthur Dong, professor of strategy and economics at Georgetown.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Tech war</h2>



In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration’s key policies focused on limiting China’s access to technology transfers and directing domestic subsidies to develop high-tech industries and supply chains in the U.S.



The administration dramatically expanded the list of technologies and Chinese companies subject to U.S. export controls in efforts to cut support to critical tech industries in China, such as advanced semiconductors. The Trump administration had enacted some similar controls.



The Biden administration also announced rules limiting U.S. investment in Chinese firms developing sensitive technologies, citing national security concerns.



In perhaps Biden’s biggest move, the administration signed the CHIPS and Science Act in August 2022, putting aside almost $53 billion to invest in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research to boost U.S. competitiveness with China.



Chris Miller, author of “Chip War,” noted export controls and the CHIPS Act were passed with bipartisan support in Washington, and thus, such policies are likely to remain a priority regardless of what happens in November.&nbsp;



“I expect that the U.S. will ratchet up restrictions a notch or two regardless of who wins the election,” Miller said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Diplomacy&nbsp;</h2>



A second term for Trump would also impact U.S. diplomacy and dialogue with Beijing beyond trade matters, said Rorry Daniels,&nbsp;managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute.



She said channels for the two countries to discuss policy issues decreased significantly during the Trump administration, whereas the Biden administration emphasized its diplomatic engagement efforts.



The current administration has also sought greater coordination with “likeminded partners,” such as lobbying Japan and the Netherlands to cooperate on semiconductor restrictions. 



“That’s both helped minimize the blowback of his trade policy actions, while in many ways also making them more effective,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade with the Economist Intelligence Unit, adding he expects any future Democratic administration to retain this multilateral approach.&nbsp;



On the other hand, he said Trump opts for a more “go-it-alone” approach, allowing for a more rapid adoption of U.S. measures on China.



While the Biden-Harris administration’s “more measured and cautious” approach to China trade and diplomacy has done more to stabilize the relationship, Marro said he doubts Beijing is excited about either candidate.



“There’s this feeling that, regardless of&nbsp;which party&nbsp;sits in the White House,&nbsp;US-China relations will remain on a crash-course throughout the remainder of this decade.”



— CNBC’s Zenith Wong contributed to this report

Donald Trump And J.D. Vance Hold First Joint Campaign Rally After The RNC

Trump 2.0 could go ‘nuclear’ on China trade, while economists say Harris would remain tough

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1332" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-423884" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-300x195.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-820x533.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-138x90.jpg 138w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-768x500.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CH74466FLFPLDMIKLENAOZO5UY-1536x999.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Munich, Germany February 18, 2023. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay//File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Washington and the world are still reeling from President Joe Biden’s surprise announcement on Sunday that he is ending his teetering re-election campaign.



But Biden’s swift endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket is energizing Democrats and breathing new life into their campaign to defeat former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.



The “Biden for President” campaign committee has officially been renamed the Harris for President committee, maintaining the Biden team’s infrastructure, staff and — crucially — its $98 million in cash reserves.



Democrats excited about a new ticket have donated tens of millions of dollars online to the Harris for President campaign.



Now, speculation swirls about who the former California senator could choose for a potential running mate, if she becomes the party’s nominee. Several Democratic governors are early favorites, with strategists eyeing Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.



Republicans are meanwhile scrambling to retool a Trump campaign that was built to defeat Joe Biden into one capable of defeating a very different candidate.



Both parties want to know what happened to make it possible for a would-be assassin to shoot at Trump while he was on stage at a rally in Butler Pa. on July 13. Trump survived the attempt, but one of his supporters in the audience was killed.



This is a developing story&#8230;

FILE PHOTO: Vice President Kamala Harris

Democrats rally behind Kamala Harris after Biden drops out; running-mate speculation swirls

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1424" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-scaled.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-417906" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-scaled.jpg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-820x570.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-768x534.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CQH2GCFS7VKHNNUO4RF6ABAM54-1536x1068.jpg 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks as he attends the signing into law of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022, which will level the playing field for American exporters and importers, including farmers, and reduce costs for American consumers by lowering the cost of ocean shipping, at the White House in Washington, U.S., June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein</figcaption></figure>



President&nbsp;Joe Biden&nbsp;on Sunday&nbsp;dropped out&nbsp;of the&nbsp;2024 presidential race&nbsp;and endorsed Vice President&nbsp;Kamala Harris&nbsp;as the Democratic Party’s nominee, bowing to weeks of growing pressure by his own party members to quit his re-election bid against former President&nbsp;Donald Trump.



“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden wrote in a post on the social media site X.



“And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote.



“I will speak to the Nation later this week in more detail about my decision,” wrote Biden, whose bombshell decision came after a sharp spike in recent days in the number of congressional Democrats publicly calling for him to step aside for another nominee.



Biden in a subsequent tweet wrote that his “very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President.”



“And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump,” Biden wrote.



“Let’s do this.”



Harris in a statement said, “I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination.”



Former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a joint statement from the Democratic power couple, said, “We are honored to join the President in endorsing Vice President Harris and will do whatever we can to support her.”



Biden, who has been isolated at his Rehoboth, Delaware, beach home after being diagnosed with Covid-19, and Harris spoke on Sunday before he announced he would drop out of the election race.



NBC News reported that Biden at 1:45 p.m. ET Sunday told his senior campaign team that he had changed his mind about remaining in the contest.



On Sunday evening, on a campaign staff call, Biden campaign co-chair Jen O’Malley Dillon called for staff to rally behind their new candidate and said that their jobs would safely transfer to the Harris campaign, three sources familiar with the call told NBC News.



She also acknowledged the emotional weight of the moment: “It is ok to grieve, it is ok to be unsure but also be optimistic about our path forward.”



Trump in a phone interview with NBC News said of Biden’s decision, “He should never have been there in the first place.”



“He should have stayed in his basement,” said Trump, who was formally nominated as the Republican Party’s candidate last week, days after narrowly avoiding being killed in an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania campaign rally on July 13.



Democratic National Committee Jamie Harrison in a statement said, “In the coming days, the Party will undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward as a united Democratic Party with a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in November.”



“This process will be governed by established rules and procedures of the Party. Our delegates are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people,” Harrison said.



Biden’s move echoes the decision by another Democratic incumbent, President Lyndon Johnson, to drop out of the 1968 election as he faced turmoil over the Vietnam War, low approval ratings, and a surprisingly strong performance by Sen. Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary.



Biden’s campaign for weeks had insisted he would remain in the race, despite growing concern since his disastrous debate with Trump in late June that he was too old and frail to compete against the former president and serve a full second term if re-elected.



As of Sunday, nearly 40 Democratic members of Congress had urged Biden to drop out. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who recently switched his political affiliation from Democrat to independent, earlier Sunday publicly said Biden should quit the race.



Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat who previously served as speaker of the House of Representatives, in a tweet Sunday wrote, “President Joe Biden is a patriotic American who has always put our country first.”



“His legacy of vision, values and leadership make him one of the most consequential Presidents in American history,” Pelosi wrote. “With love and gratitude to President Biden for always believing in the promise of America and giving people the opportunity to reach their fulfillment. God blessed America with Joe Biden’s greatness and goodness.



Biden’s decision to drop out blows open the presidential race less than four months before Election Day.



It also poses extraordinary questions and challenges for the Democratic party, which now must scramble to assemble a new presidential ticket.



The next candidate will need to compete against the Republican ticket of Trump and Sen. JD Vance, win over donors, delegates and other allies who were loyal to the incumbent — all while convincing voters of their own worthiness for the nation’s highest office.



Biden’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



Biden started to hemorrhage support from his own party and allies after his June 27 debate against Trump.



While he is only three years older than Trump, Biden looked and sounded significantly worse on the debate stage. He displayed a stiff posture and sometimes vacant-looking gaze, and he frequently gave answers that were raspy, unclear and ineffective.



In both substance and appearance, Biden contrasted sharply with Trump, who looked and sounded the same as he has in recent years.



The debate instantly set off a crisis among Democrats. Even before it ended, party operatives were raising doubts about whether Biden could effectively campaign against Trump.



High-profile Democratic donors and backers openly urged Biden to drop out, with some vowing to&nbsp;withhold campaign contributions&nbsp;in the meantime.



Biden and his aides spent weeks trying to stanch the bleeding.



In his first post-debate interview, Biden said he was convinced that he is the best person to take on Trump, adding that he could only be persuaded to step down “if the Lord Almighty comes out and tells me that.”



But as his resolute posture failed to quell the&nbsp;unrest in his party, Biden suggested he could be moved to withdraw in other ways.



In a BET interview that aired Wednesday during the Republican National Convention, Biden said he might reconsider his decision to stay in the race “if I had some&nbsp;medical condition that emerged.”



On the same day that interview was set for broadcast, Biden&nbsp;tested positive for Covid. He canceled a scheduled appearance in Las Vegas and returned his beach house in Delaware.



Biden is already the oldest person ever to serve in the White House.



He would have been 86 at the end of a second term. He had&nbsp;weathered questions&nbsp;about his physical and mental fitness even during his 2020 run.



Those concerns grew in the 2024 cycle, but they were aggressively batted down by Biden’s campaign and White House aides, and the president’s relative lack of press conferences and interviews may have shielded scrutiny about his acuity.

U.S. President Joe Biden signs into law the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022

Biden drops out of 2024 presidential election, endorses Kamala Harris as Democratic nominee

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-505670" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/HIIJDZFCB5P35MGUWBAGP3Y76E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A person casts a ballot in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections, at a polling station in Paris, France, July 7, 2024. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier</figcaption></figure>



July 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Elections are taking place this year in countries home to almost half of the world&#8217;s population, from Taiwan&#8217;s general election in January to the U.S. presidential race in November.



The votes come amid growing economic and geopolitical strife, with the Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East and rising trade tensions between the United States and China, the world&#8217;s two largest economies.



In some countries, there are concerns about the resilience of democracy itself as political discourse has polarized or been warped by disinformation. Many of this year&#8217;s elections will not be free and fair &#8211; or their results will be disputed.



Half-way through the biggest year for elections in history, here are some common themes that have emerged in Reuters&#8217; reporting from around the world:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cost-of-living">COST OF LIVING</h2>



From the price of green onions in Indonesia to higher fuel bills across Europe, rises in the price of food, energy and other basics have hit the living standards of households across the world. Incumbent governments and leaders are paying for it.



Polling showed that cost of living concerns were a powerful factor in a fall in support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi&#8217;s party in India, losses suffered by mainstream parties in June&#8217;s European Parliament elections and the poll rout of Britain&#8217;s ruling Conservatives.



In Africa, discontent over living standards and unemployment contributed to the ANC&#8217;s loss of its majority in South Africa&#8217;s election. Worsening poverty is likely to help shape the outcome of Ghana&#8217;s December vote to succeed President Nana Akufo-Addo.



Polling ahead of the U.S. election suggests voters are similarly unimpressed with President Joe Biden&#8217;s efforts to improve their livelihoods, with many Americans feeling their living standards are falling despite strong headline economic data. One outlier: In Mexico, the ruling MORENA party emerged the winner after offering ample subsidies to low-income voters.



While economic policymakers say there are signs that inflation is returning to normal, they warn it has not yet been fully tamed and many economies remain fragile.



&#8220;A number of pressure points could throw the global economy off track,&#8221; Agustin Carstens, head of the central bank umbrella group the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), warned in June.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-green-transition">GREEN TRANSITION</h2>



With the cost of living uppermost in many voters&#8217; minds, climate change action has often been crowded out of election campaigns &#8211; even as global temperatures break new records and death tolls from extreme heat climb.



While surveys show Europeans still support ambitious action on global warming, the debate there has focused on the perceived cost to livelihoods, with farming and other lobbies stepping up calls for an easing of net-zero policies.



In the EU elections, ecologist Greens shed most of the gains made five years earlier. In Britain, Labour dropped a 28-billion-pound green investment pledge ahead of the July 4 general election, saying the country could not afford it, while their Conservative rivals described themselves as &#8220;on the side of drivers&#8221;, attacking low-traffic and low-emission schemes.



The biggest challenge to the green transition may come from the United States, with Donald Trump campaigning on policies supporting continued fossil fuel use. It remains to be seen how much of Biden&#8217;s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) green subsidies stay in place in the event of a Trump victory.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-swing-to-the-far-right">SWING TO THE (FAR)RIGHT?</h2>



The cost of living crisis has led to rising support for far-right movement&nbsp;in Western countries&nbsp;with a mix of anti-immigration and nationalist policies, often unfunded economic spending plans and populist rhetoric attacking global elites.



Back in March, Portugal&#8217;s Chega party quadrupled its seats in parliament to become the country&#8217;s third-largest party. Three months later, its far-right, eurosceptic peers across Europe made gains in elections to the European Parliament.



In France, Marine Le Pen&#8217;s National Rally failed in elections on Sunday to achieve the majority they were coveting but became the largest single party in a hung parliament that now risks plunging Europe&#8217;s second-largest economy into policy paralyis.



In Britain, the anti-immigrant, nationalist Reform Party won over four million votes, contributing to the collapse in support for the ruling Conservatives even if Britain&#8217;s first-past-the-post electoral system meant it only won a handful of seats.



Austria&#8217;s Sept. 29 election will be closely watched, with polls showing the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) leading rivals after it ranked first in European Parliament elections.



In the United States, Trump has made immigration one of his top domestic campaign issues, declaring he would carry out mass deportations, end birthright citizenship, and expand a travel ban on people from certain countries.



Mohit Kumar, chief economist for investment house Jefferies, noted that immigration as an election theme was hottest in precisely the large Western economies whose ageing populations were creating labour shortages.



&#8220;Economically we need immigration but the political dynamics are shifting away from immigration,&#8221; he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-debt-and-election-largesse">DEBT AND ELECTION LARGESSE</h2>



With economic hardship so prevalent, many politicians are offering to spend big and cut taxes in a bid to win power &#8211; at the risk of adding to global debt already at record levels after huge post-pandemic stimulus packages in rich-world economies.



Credit rating firm S&amp;P Global has warned the United States, France and other Group of Seven (G7) governments were unlikely to halt rises in their debt &#8220;at the present stage in their electoral cycles&#8221;.



The BIS annual report in June said an election year like this brought an &#8220;especially high&#8221; risk of fiscal expansion that could complicate efforts to bring inflation down to target.



Budget watchdogs in Britain and France &#8211; two countries struggling to balance their budgets &#8211; noted that many spending pledges were either unfunded or unrealistically costed.



Trump has pledged to keep in place a broad 2017 tax cut that he signed while in office, and his economic team has discussed a further round of cuts beyond those enacted in his first term.



Biden, meanwhile, proposes raising levies on businesses and rich individuals, while vowing not to increase taxes for households earning less than $400,000 a year and to assist low- and middle-income Americans with childcare costs. U.S. federal government currently has more than $34 trillion in debt.



Such levels of debt are seen making the global economy more vulnerable to financial shocks and the International Monetary Fund has urged governments to reduce their borrowing.



&#8220;Unfortunately, fiscal plans so far are insufficient and could be derailed further given the record number of elections this year,&#8221; its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a recent blog.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-defence-and-security">DEFENCE AND SECURITY</h2>



As geopolitical tensions rise, defence and security matters have been prominent in a number of election campaigns so far this year &#8211; particularly in countries near the hotspots.



In February, Finland elected as president Alexander Stubb, who campaigned on the previously non-aligned country fully participating in NATO and allowing the transit of nuclear arms through it. Incumbents in Lithuania won an election dominated by concerns over Russia and calls for higher defence spending.



Taiwan&#8217;s presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 13 focused around arguments on how best to deal with China, which views the island as its own territory. The ruling DPP party secured the presidency for a third term as its candidate vowed to safeguard Taiwan from intimidation while emphasising the need for dialogue with Beijing.



In the United States, Democratic voters&#8217; anger over Israel&#8217;s military action in Gaza &#8211; and over Biden&#8217;s continued support of Israel – has emerged as a major vulnerability for him. American views on the conflict have broken down along party lines with Republicans largely supporting Israel.



While Biden voices unwavering support for NATO, Trump has said that if he is returned to the White House, America would fundamentally rethink NATO&#8217;s purpose. He has also asserted without evidence that if elected he would end the conflict in Ukraine before even taking office. On that, Biden has retorted that Trump has &#8220;no idea what he&#8217;s talking about&#8221;.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-democracy-at-stake">DEMOCRACY AT STAKE?</h2>



Pro-democracy watchdogs estimate that nearly three-quarters of the world&#8217;s population live in autocracies. Observers and human rights groups have signalled concerns about the fairness of elections this year in Bangladesh, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, Iran and Russia. Votes in Algeria and Uzbekistan face similar questions.



Modi&#8217;s electoral setback has been hailed by some commentators as proof of the resilience of its democracy. There was relief at the peaceful handover of power in Senegal in March after moves by the incumbent to delay the vote triggered protests.



Democracy&#8217;s biggest test this year may, however, be in Washington.



Trump refuses to commit to accepting the election results or to rule out possible violence around the Nov. 5 contest. He is already laying the groundwork to contest a potential defeat.



&#8220;We should be quite worried,&#8221; Steven Levitsky, political scientist and professor of government at Harvard University, told a Brookings think tank event in June.



&#8220;A democracy cannot survive if one party in a two-party system is not committed to playing by the democratic rules of the game.&#8221;



(Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Anand Katakam; Editing by Simon Robinson and Daniel Flynn)

France votes in the second round of the 2024 snap legislative elections

How this year of elections is set to reshape global politics

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-445639" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SWEUMT7U2BNOBJQWUWR7XK5WEI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes the weekly cabinet meeting at the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 7, 2024. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool</figcaption></figure>



THE HAGUE, Jan 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Israel will respond on Friday to accusations brought by South Africa at the U.N.&#8217;s top court that its military operation in Gaza is a state-led genocide campaign aimed at wiping out the Palestinian population.



South Africa, which filed the lawsuit at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December, asked judges on Thursday to impose emergency measures ordering Israel to immediately halt the offensive.



It said Israel&#8217;s aerial and ground offensive &#8211; which has laid waste to much of the narrow coastal enclave and killed more than 23,000 people according to Gaza health authorities &#8211; aimed to bring about &#8220;the destruction of the population&#8221; of Gaza.



Israel rejected the accusations of genocide as baseless and said South Africa was acting as a mouthpiece for Hamas, which it views as a terrorist organisation seeking to eliminate the Jewish state. Its military was targeting Hamas militants, not Palestinian civilians, it said.



Israel launched its all-out war in Gaza after a cross-border rampage on Oct. 7 by Hamas militants in which Israeli officials said 1,200 people were killed, mainly civilians, and 240 taken hostage back to Gaza.



The 1948 Genocide Convention, enacted in the wake of the mass murder of Jews in the Nazi Holocaust, defines genocide as &#8220;acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group&#8221;.



Since Israeli forces launched their offensive, nearly all of Gaza&#8217;s 2.3 million people have been driven from their homes at least once, causing a humanitarian catastrophe.



Post-apartheid South Africa has long advocated the Palestinian cause, a relationship forged when the African National Congress&#8217; struggle against white-minority rule was cheered on by Yasser Arafat&#8217;s Palestine Liberation Organisation.



The court is expected to rule on possible emergency measures later this month, but will not rule at that time on the genocide allegations &#8211; those proceedings could take years.



The ICJ&#8217;s decisions are final and without appeal &#8211; but the court has no way to enforce them.



(Reporting by Anthony Deutsch, Stephanie van den Berg and Toby Sterling and Bart Meijer; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes the weekly cabinet meeting, in Tel Aviv

Israel to counter genocide accusations at World Court

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-445398" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/SK2F2TSLLRNTNDNQ44N4CXN4LE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">People sit inside the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the day of the trial to hear a request for emergency measures by South Africa, who asked the court to order Israel to stop its military actions in Gaza and to desist from what South Africa says are genocidal acts committed against Palestinians during the war with Hamas in Gaza, in The Hague, Netherlands, January 11, 2024. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen</figcaption></figure>



GAZA/THE HAGUE, Jan 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Israel faced down accusations at the World Court on Thursday of genocide in its war in Gaza, as the first residents returned to scenes of total devastation in northern areas where Israeli forces have begun withdrawing this week.



Three months of Israeli bombardment has laid much of the narrow coastal enclave to waste, killing more than 23,000 people and driving nearly the entire population of 2.3 million Palestinians from their homes. An Israeli blockade has sharply restricted supplies of food, fuel and medicine, creating what the United Nations describes as a humanitarian catastrophe.



Israel says its only means to defend itself is by eradicating Hamas, the Islamist group that rules Gaza, whose fighters sworn to Israel&#8217;s destruction stormed through Israeli communities on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and capturing 240 hostages. Israel blames Hamas for all harm to civilians for operating among them, which the fighters deny.



The case, brought by South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague, accuses Israel of violating the 1948 genocide convention, enacted in the wake of the mass murder of Jews in the Holocaust, which mandates all countries to ensure such crimes are never repeated.



Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy compared the lawsuit to a centuries-old antisemitic conspiracy theory falsely accusing Jews of killing babies for rituals: &#8220;The State of Israel will appear before the International Court of Justice to dispel South Africa&#8217;s absurd blood libel, as Pretoria gives political and legal cover to the Hamas rapist regime.&#8221;



The preliminary hearings this week will consider whether the court should order Israel to stop fighting while it investigates the full merits of the case.



In Rafah, in southern Gaza where the bodies of members of the al-Arjany family killed overnight, including three small children, were laid out in shrouds outside a morgue, neighbours said the court must intervene to halt the war.



&#8220;To the ICJ: what is the fault of this baby?&#8221; said neighbour Khamis Kelab, cradling the smallest of the shrouded bodies in his arms as women wailed nearby.



&#8220;What did this girl do? What crime did she commit? Was she a terrorist? Did this baby fire rockets?&#8221; he said. &#8220;She was inside a tent, in the freezing cold, she was hit by a strike, this baby is just a few days old, you people.&#8221;



South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his country was driven to bring the case by &#8220;the ongoing slaughter of the people of Gaza&#8221;, and motivated by South Africa&#8217;s own apartheid history.



&#8220;Israel has a genocidal intent against the Palestinians in Gaza,&#8221; Tembeka Ngcukaitobi, advocate of the High Court of South Africa, told the court in the Hague. &#8220;The intent to destroy Gaza has been nurtured at the highest level of state.&#8221;



The case reveals stark international polarisation. Several Western countries joined Washington in calling genocide accusations against Israel unjustified, not least given the ruthlessness of the Hamas attacks that precipitated the war.



&#8220;In fact, it is those who are violently attacking Israel who continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews,&#8221; said State Department spokesperson Matt Miller.



Some developing states, including heavyweight Brazil, backed South Africa.



Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters: &#8220;We urge the court to reject all pressure and take a decision to criminalise the Israeli occupation and stop the aggression on Gaza.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gaza-will-be-rebuilt-we-will-rebury-our-dead">&#8216;GAZA WILL BE REBUILT. WE WILL REBURY OUR DEAD&#8217;</h2>



Since the New Year, Israel has announced a new phase in the war, to begin drawing down forces in the northern half of the Gaza Strip where its offensive began. Even so, fighting has only intensified in southern areas.



The relative quiet in the north has let residents begin trickling back into obliterated cities, finding a moonscape often with scant trace of where homes once stood.



Yousef Fares, a freelance journalist, filmed himself walking through a wasteland surrounded by scorched ruins that was once a part of Gaza City, home to nearly a million people. A few civilians passed by, some wobbling on bicycles over a track across the mud.



&#8220;All the houses you see are destroyed, completely or partially,&#8221; he said.



&#8220;We are now at the Tuffah old cemetery, which is over 100 years old. All those graves were exhumed, they were run over by the Israeli bulldozers and tanks. People are coming from various areas of Gaza City to search for the bodies of their sons.&#8221;



Abu Ayesh, who returned to a nearby part of Gaza City, told Reuters by phone that the destruction was &#8220;earthquake-like&#8221;.



&#8220;I tell (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu that Gaza will be rebuilt, we will build our homes and we will rebury our dead.&#8221;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-netanyahu-no-intention-to-re-occupy-gaza">NETANYAHU: NO INTENTION TO RE-OCCUPY GAZA</h2>



While Washington has backed Israel&#8217;s military campaign as justified by its right to self-defence, it has also called on its ally to scale the war back, do more to protect civilians, and maintain the hope of a future independent Palestinian state.



This week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the region, meeting Israeli and Palestinian officials and leaders of neighbouring Arab States, defending Israel&#8217;s campaign to eradicate Hamas but pushing for it to work with the Palestinian Authority (PA), which recognises Israel.



Israel has been vague about its ultimate intentions but says it wants security control of Gaza indefinitely and won&#8217;t hand it to the PA, which exercises limited self rule in the Israeli occupied West Bank but was pushed out of Gaza in 2007 by Hamas.



Some far-right members of Netanyahu&#8217;s coalition government have openly called for Palestinians to leave Gaza and Israelis to settle there permanently. In a post on X, Netanyahu insisted this was not Israel&#8217;s aim.



&#8220;Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population,&#8221; he wrote. &#8220;Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population, and we are doing so in full compliance with international law.&#8221;



(Reporting by Mohammed Salem in Rafah, Gaza; Nidal al-Mughrabi in Qatar; Dan Williams and Henriette Chacar in Jerusalem; Anthony Deutsch in the HagueWriting by Peter Graff; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

People sit inside the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the day of the trial to hear a request for emergency measures by South Africa, who asked the court to order Israel to stop its military actions in Gaza, in The Hague

Israel faces genocide charges at World Court; Gazans return to wasteland

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="575" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-440852" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-820x575.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-128x90.jpg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-768x539.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-1536x1077.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWWPQTPSUBJFTJAOHNDF3BPMFA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Opposition supporters prepare to demonstrate, while riot police amass around Congolese opposition presidential candidate Martin Fayulu&#8217;s headquarters to block a protest by the opposition who are calling for a re-run of last week&#8217;s national election, in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo December 27, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Nyemba</figcaption></figure>



Dec 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Democratic Republic of Congo is gradually releasing preliminary results from the Dec. 20 presidential election following a chaotic vote and an unscheduled ballot extension that have led the opposition to demand a re-run.



Below are the latest figures from the election commission, known as the CENI, along with details about how the commission is counting votes and releasing its tally, and why critics are disputing the results.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-what-do-the-latest-results-show">WHAT DO THE LATEST RESULTS SHOW?</h2>



The latest CENI update on Thursday showed President Tshisekedi well ahead of his 18 challengers, with just over 76% of around 12.5 million votes counted so far.



Businessman Moise Katumbi and former energy executive Martin Fayulu stand in second and third place respectively with almost 17% and more than 4% of the vote.



The provisional tally so far is based on results from 46,422 out of almost 76,000 polling stations, according to the CENI.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-are-they-being-released">HOW ARE THEY BEING RELEASED?</h2>



The CENI set up a results centre in Kinshasa called Basolo &#8211; &#8220;Truth&#8221; in the Lingala language &#8211; from where it has issued updates on a near-daily basis since Dec. 22.



The commission refers to these results as trends and has not yet said how many of Congo&#8217;s 44 million registered voters participated in the election.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-how-is-the-ceni-counting-votes">HOW IS THE CENI COUNTING VOTES?</h2>



According to Congolese electoral law, results released by the CENI are meant to be based on tallies of the paper votes cast in each polling station that have been signed off by witnesses and observers. This is meant to improve transparency and allow results to be easily double-checked if contested.



But the CENI president has told local media provisional results released so far have been based on a combination of such tallies and figures taken straight from voting machines.



In a report on the election released on Dec. 28, the main independent CENCO-ECC election monitoring group urged the CENI only to publish results based on correctly consolidated tallies from local centres.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-are-critics-disputing-the-results">WHY ARE CRITICS DISPUTING THE RESULTS?</h2>



Opposition presidential candidates say election day irregularities, including the CENI&#8217;s unscheduled extension of some voting beyond Dec. 20, have compromised the credibility of the results, calling for them to be annulled.



The CENCO-ECC observer mission and another local election monitoring group, which together deployed thousands of observers, have also highlighted issues on election day and during the vote-count they say throw the integrity of the results into question.



The CENI has acknowledged there were delays on election day, but says it is still on track to deliver a free and fair vote.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-when-could-we-get-full-results">WHEN COULD WE GET FULL RESULTS?</h2>



The CENI is scheduled to release full provisional results from the presidential vote by Dec. 31.



(Writing by Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Congo deploys riot police ahead of banned anti-election protest

FACTBOX-The latest results in Congo’s disputed election

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="521" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-820x521.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-435811" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-820x521.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-300x191.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-768x488.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-1536x977.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2NYL26N5I5JW3NDSK4SNUHQ7QM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party supporters gather as they wait for the arrival of Democratic Republic of the Congo&#8217;s President Felix Tshisekedi for a campaign rally at the Afia stadium in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo December 10, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



KINSHASA, Dec 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Democratic Republic of Congo&#8217;s government has asked the United Nations to allow its peacekeeping mission to help with the logistics of organising national elections next week, according to a letter seen by Reuters.



There have been challenges in the distribution of voting materials in Africa&#8217;s second-largest country due to a lack of paved roads and conflict in rebel-plagued eastern provinces, where a U.N. peacekeeping mission is deployed.



The mission, known as MONUSCO, has already helped deliver voting materials in the eastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu. Its mandate is currently limited to those areas.



In a letter dated Dec. 12, the Kinshasa government asked the U.N. Security Council to allow MONUSCO to extend its logistical support to other provinces.



The mission&#8217;s spokesperson, Ndeye Khady Lo, confirmed the letter and said the mission was waiting for the Security Council&#8217;s reply.



Congo&#8217;s government and its national electoral commission (CENI) did not immediately respond to requests for comment.



Some analysts and civil society groups have raised concerns that the election on Dec. 20 could be delayed. In 2018, Congo postponed the vote by one week just three days before it was set to take place.



The CENI last week asked the presidency to provide aircraft urgently to help distribute voting materials in hard-to-reach areas.



The government has meanwhile asked neighbouring Angola to lend it some planes for the election period. But its request was refused because it came too late, a diplomatic source said.



(Reporting by Sonia Rolley; Writing by Sofia Christensen; Editing by Nellie Peyton and Mark Heinrich)

UDPS party supporters gather as they wait for the arrival of Democratic Republic of the Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi for a campaign rally at the Afia stadium in Goma

Congo asks U.N. to help with challenging election logistics

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-433965" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/URAEOTS2UJMPBFGFRNZO4L4MSQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Supporters of Union for Democracy and Social Progress {UDPS} gather to attend the launch of the first official day of campaign for the presidential election of December 20, by their leader Felix Tshisekedi in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, November 19, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Nyemba</figcaption></figure>



Dec 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Voters in Democratic Republic of Congo go to the polls on Dec. 20 and international investors are keenly watching to see if a political shake-up occurs in one of the world&#8217;s top suppliers of critical minerals.



A win for President Felix Tshisekedi would likely mean a continuation of his goal to lure more foreign investment and renegotiate contracts to improve terms for Congo.



Tshisekedi&#8217;s opponents include mining magnate Moise Katumbi and former oil executive Martin Fayulu whose business backgrounds they both say will help them clean up Congo&#8217;s corruption-plagued extractive industries if they win.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-mines-amp-minerals">MINES &amp; MINERALS</h2>



Congo is the world&#8217;s biggest producer of cobalt, a key component in batteries for electric cars and mobile phones. It is also the world&#8217;s third-largest copper producer and holds significant deposits of lithium, tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold.



The Congolese mining sector, particularly its copper and cobalt mines, is now largely dominated by Chinese companies, but Tshisekedi has tried to woo other foreign investors and renegotiate existing deals to improve Congo&#8217;s stake in major projects.



&#8220;A Tshisekedi victory would provide a degree of policy continuity for investors in the mining sector, albeit of a resource nationalist nature,&#8221; said Aleix Montana, Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.



Whoever wins will have to take the lead on ongoing talks with China including on the new terms for the Sicomines joint venture, part of a $6 billion metals-for-infrastructure deal from 2008.



&#8220;Tshisekedi in a new term would have stronger legs to stand on in terms of the negotiating position,&#8221; said Indigo Ellis, managing director at consultancy Africa Matters Ltd (AML).



With Tshisekedi&#8217;s backing, state mining group Gecamines has also said it plans to renegotiate some terms on its joint venture contracts with partners including Glencore&nbsp;GLEN.L&nbsp;and Chinese investors in a push to buy copper and cobalt proportional to its stakes.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-oil-amp-gas">OIL &amp; GAS</h2>



Tshisekedi has tried to develop Congo&#8217;s largely untapped fossil fuel reserves by auctioning the rights to 30 oil and gas blocks – many of them in environmentally sensitive areas.



The sale was officially launched in July 2022, but the auctions have been plagued by delays with only the licensing round for the three gas blocks completed so far albeit with the notable absence of major foreign players.



The government says Congo has 22 billion barrels of crude reserves and it is targeting production of 200,000 barrels per day, which would make Congo one of Africa&#8217;s biggest oil producers. The timeline for the development of the blocks remains unclear.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-risky-business">RISKY BUSINESS</h2>



Tshisekedi came to power with the promise to root out endemic corruption. Many Western investors have continued to steer clear, but analysts say that may change in the coming years as global powers seek access to minerals needed to drive the clean energy transition.



&#8220;The race &#8230; is forcing Western miners to re-evaluate their risk appetite, said Montana from Verisk Maplecroft, which rates Congo seventh worst globally on its index that assesses the risk of governments seizing more control of revenue from the extractives sector.



Nevertheless many investors are waiting to see that elections go peacefully and the transfer to the next term is smooth. The last election in 2018 was the first transfer of power at the ballot box after decades marked by coups and civil conflict.



&#8220;It makes sense for them (investors) to wait and see what happens,&#8221; said AML&#8217;s Ellis.



(Reporting by Felix Njinji; Writing by Alessandra Prentice; editing by David Evans)

FILE PHOTO: Congolese president Tshisekedi launches electoral campaign with Kinshasa rally

What is at stake for investors in Congo’s election?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="590" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-820x590.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-429138" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-820x590.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-300x216.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-125x90.jpg 125w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-768x553.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-1536x1106.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/JHXDMXCSE5LZJG7LNLI4TT4SNI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">President Felix Tshisekedi, leader of Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) walks with his wife Denise Nyekeru Tshisekedi as he arrives during the launch of the first official day of the campaign for the presidential election of December 20, in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, November 19, 2023. REUTERS/Benoit Nyemba</figcaption></figure>



KINSHASA, Nov 19 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Democratic Republic of Congo President Felix Tshisekedi launched his re-election bid on Sunday in a packed-to-capacity stadium in the capital Kinshasa, urging voters to give him another mandate to consolidate his achievements.



More than 43 million registered voters are eligible to take part in the general election and presidential polls on Dec. 20.



Tshisekedi, 60, who came to power in 2018 following a disputed election in the world&#8217;s largest producer of battery material cobalt and a major copper producer, is seeking another term following a turbulent five years in office.



Speaking at the 80,000-capacity Kinshasa Martyrs Stadium, packed with his coalition supporters decked in party colours and carrying effigies of its leaders, Tshisekedi told the cheering crowd he had delivered free basic education and planned to soon introduce universal healthcare.



&#8220;In just two years we have been able to do all of these actions that you have seen, but we can do better. Vote for me to consolidate the gains we already have,&#8221; Tshisekedi said, adding that his first two years in office were constrained by a power-sharing agreement with former president Joseph Kabila.



&#8220;The others will come and start from scratch, it is better to consolidate what we have started,&#8221; he said.



Tshisekedi will face 25 other candidates in the presidential race, including old rival Martin Fayulu, a 66-year-old former Exxon Mobil executive who came second in the 2018 election.



Other challengers include Nobel Peace Prize-winning gynaecologist Denis Mukwege, who is running for the first time, Moise Katumbi, a millionaire businessman and former governor of the copper-rich Katanga region, and former prime minister Augustin Matata Ponyo.



Tshisekedi, son of long-term opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, had on taking office promised to root out corruption and authoritarian rule, rebuild the economy, tackle inequalities and deal with Congo&#8217;s prolonged security crisis, but critics say he has fallen short on these issues.



His first term has been mired by economic hardship, the COVID-19 pandemic, Ebola outbreaks and persistent insecurity, particularly in the east where the resurgent M23 rebel group seized swathes of territory displacing over 1 million.



&#8220;I&#8217;m backing Tshisekedi because he is the ideal choice for Congo given what he has done already. He has proven that if we give him another mandate, he&#8217;ll do even better,&#8221; said Alidor Ilunga, a 35-year-old supporter.



Rival Fayulu launched his campaign in Bandundu, around 400km (249 miles) northeast of the capital, also on Sunday, while other candidates including Katumbi are expected to launch theirs from Monday.



(Reporting by Ange Kasongo; Writing by Bate Felix; Editing by David Holmes)

Congolese President Tshisekedi launches electoral campaign with Kinshasa rally

Congo’s Tshisekedi kicks off re-election bid with vow to consolidate achievements

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427633" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/PICJOSJU3ZIDPGUR5CMU73CAGM-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Gabon coup leader General Brice Oligui Nguema is sworn in as interim president during his swearing-in ceremony, in Libreville, Gabon, September 4, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) &#8211; When Gabon&#8217;s General Brice Oligui Nguema ousted his distant cousin last month, he became the eighth military leader who has taken power by force in Africa since 2020. But one aspect about the country was different: it had sold a sizeable amount of bonds on international capital markets, and had just weeks prior sealed continental Africa&#8217;s first debt-for-nature swap.



The putsch not only sent Gabon&#8217;s bonds tumbling 10%, but also hit those issued by a number of other countries including neighbouring Cameroon, as jittery investors scanned for who might be next.



The apparent coup trend is adding to other major concerns deterring many investors from&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;&#8211; a wave of debt crises, tense geopolitics and an extreme vulnerability to climate change.



&#8220;Nearly all markets in that region are paying some price in terms of rising cost of debt,&#8221; said Sergey Dergachev, portfolio manager at Union Investment.



A UNDP study dated July shows how the costs add up. It estimated Guinea&#8217;s 2008 coup and one in Mali in 2012 wiped a combined $12-$13.5 billion off the two countries&#8217; economies over a 5-year period. This represented 76% of Guinea&#8217;s 2008 gross domestic product and almost half of Mali&#8217;s 2012 GDP, the study calculated.



There have been scores of coups and attempted coups in recent decades including in Thailand, Ecuador, Egypt and Turkey.



Investors in those markets reacted reflexively &#8211; sell first, think later.



Gabon&#8217;s coup not only hurt its bonds, it also ratcheted up the interest rate premium, or &#8216;spread&#8217;, investors demand to hold bonds in JPMorgan&#8217;s multi-country &#8220;Nexgem&#8221;&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;index, a move that has still not fully retraced.



Cameroon has been particularly sensitive. Its bonds have lost more ground than Gabon&#8217;s since the coup. The country&#8217;s President Paul Biya has ruled for over 40 years through crackdowns and contested elections and wants his son to take over.



In focus too is Senegal, whose President Macky Sall recently ruled out running for a third term after violent unrest, and Congo Republic which had to quash weekend rumours of an overthrow while President Denis Sassou Nguesso &#8211; in power for 38 years &#8211; was in New York for the U.N. General Assembly.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-unequal-coups">UNEQUAL COUPS</h2>



&#8220;Certainly there&#8217;s a lot of eyeballs on this (coup) theme right now,&#8221; said Eamon Aghdasi, a sovereign analyst at investment firm GMO, who co-authored a recent paper on whether democracy matters to debt investors.



&#8220;As a bondholder, the worst-case scenario is that a new government comes in and repudiates the previous government&#8217;s debt&#8221;.



There is no sign of Gabon&#8217;s new leaders repudiating debt, though payments on bonds have run into trouble elsewhere, such as Niger.



Credit ratings usually suffer too. Fitch and Moody&#8217;s have put Gabon on a downgrade warning since the Aug. 30 overthrow. Agencies slashed ratings for Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, although further afield, Thailand&#8217;s never budged despite two coups in the last two decades.



&#8220;Coups, in general, in&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;or anywhere else, can cause problems for debt repayment partly because of the potential for sanctions,&#8221; S&amp;P Global analyst Ravi Bhatia said, adding that vital international support can also get shelved.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-rising-costs">RISING COSTS</h2>



Gabon, where the Bongo family had ruled for nearly 60 years amid stark inequality, has yet to face the kinds of sanctions imposed on Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger &#8211; although its International Monetary Fund programme was already off track.



Moody&#8217;s cited the rise in oil prices in its decision to hold off on a full downgrade, as well as Gabon&#8217;s membership of the Central&nbsp;African monetary union (CFA franc), which shields it from currency volatility.



The country&#8217;s bond spreads have eased somewhat since investors&#8217; initial panic and could recover entirely, some analysts say, if it makes its first post-coup bond payment on time next month.



&#8220;You may get a situation where bondholders might say, if it&#8217;s a change away from long-term single leaderships, then it may well be a turn for the better,&#8221; said Simon Quijano-Evans, chief economist with Gemcorp. &#8220;As long as elections and democracy come back&#8221;.



Broadly though, concerns about sovereign stability across&nbsp;Africa&nbsp;loom large. This year&#8217;s &#8220;Fragile States Index&#8221; published by non-profit The Fund for Peace rated 46&nbsp;African countries as at least somewhat unstable.



Even in Kenya, a solid democracy on the other side of the continent, investors warn that general risk aversion could push up the cost of issuing a new bond.



(Reporting By Libby George and Marc Jones, additional reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

FILE PHOTO: Gabon coup leader General Brice Oligui Nguema is sworn in as interim president in Libreville

Counting the cost of contagion fears from Africa coups

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427215" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/HIA46EEL7ZJN3JVG6KDGWO25D4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A military vehicle passes by people celebrating after military officers announced they had taken power, after the state election body announced President Ali Bongo had won a third term, in Port Gentil, Gabon August 30, 2023 in this still image obtained from social media video. Gaetan M-Antchouwet via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



LIBREVILLE, Sept 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The leader of a coup that ousted Gabon&#8217;s President Ali Bongo was sworn in&nbsp;as interim president&nbsp;and cheered by jubilant supporters on Monday in a televised&nbsp;ceremony&nbsp;designed to cast the military as liberators of an oppressed society.



In West and Central Africa&#8217;s eighth coup in three years, army officers led by General Brice Oligui Nguema seized power on Aug. 30, minutes after an announcement that Bongo had won an election they annulled and said was not credible.



Nguema&nbsp;was given a standing ovation by military officers and officials as he arrived for the ceremony, and again just after he was sworn in by a panel of constitutional court judges.



State TV showed images of a cheering crowd and armoured personnel carriers firing into the sea to mark the moment.



In a speech, Nguema proposed reforms including a new constitution to be adopted by referendum, new electoral and penal codes, and measures to prioritise local banks and companies for economic development. He also said political exiles would be welcomed back and political prisoners freed.



Repeatedly interrupted by cheers, he described the coup, which&nbsp;ended the Bongo family&#8217;s 56-year&nbsp;hold on power in the oil-producing country,&nbsp;as a moment of national liberation and a manifestation of God&#8217;s will.



&#8220;When the people are crushed by their leaders &#8230; it&#8217;s the army that gives them back their dignity,&#8221; he said. &#8220;People of Gabon, today the times of happiness that our ancestors dreamt of are finally coming.&#8221;



Several figures from Bongo&#8217;s government, including the vice president and prime minister, attended the ceremony.



Bongo himself remains under house arrest. He was elected in 2009, taking over from his late father who came to power in 1967. Opponents say the family did too little to share Gabon&#8217;s oil and mining wealth with the country&#8217;s 2.3 million people.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-pledge-to-return-power-to-civilians">PLEDGE TO RETURN POWER TO CIVILIANS</h2>



Nguema reiterated that his administration would organise free and fair elections, though he gave no timetable.



&#8220;After this transition &#8230; we intend to return power to civilians by organising new elections that will be free, transparent, credible and peaceful,&#8221; he said.



Previously, Nguema had said the junta would proceed &#8220;quickly but surely,&#8221; but cautioned that too much haste could lead to elections that lack credibility.



The coup had drawn&nbsp;cheering crowds onto the streets of the capital Libreville but condemnation from abroad.



Leaders of the Central African regional bloc ECCAS are due to meet in person on Monday to discuss their response. Last week they urged partners led by the United Nations and the African Union to support a rapid return to constitutional order.



Gabon&#8217;s main opposition group, Alternance 2023, which says it is the rightful winner of the Aug. 26 election, has called on the international community to encourage the junta to hand power back to civilians.



Members of Alternance 2023 met Nguema on Sunday for talks, a source in the alliance told Reuters, without sharing further details.



Gabon&#8217;s international bonds continued to claw back ground after their sharp tumble last Wednesday. The 2025 bond recorded the biggest gains, up 1.8 cents in the dollar according to Tradeweb data.



However, the bonds which are trading between 91.3 cents from 2024 maturities and 74 cents for issues coming due in 2031, are still down around 5 cents from their pre-coup levels. US362420AB78=TE, XS1245960684=TE, US362420AD35=TE, US362420AD35=TE



(Additional reporting by Nellie Peyton and Karin Strohecker; Writing by Alessandra Prentice and Estelle Shirbon; Editing by Peter Graff and Christina Fincher)

Military vehicle passes by people celebrating in Port Gentil

Gabon coup leader sworn in as interim president in scene of jubilation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-427174" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Z4DVFX4YZBISTIKKKGFNVAHVZY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Trucks carrying industrial equipments wait because of the closure of the border after the coup in Gabon, in the border town of Kye-Ossi, Cameroon August 31, 2023. REUTERS/Desire Danga Essigue/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LIBREVILLE, Sept 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Gabon&#8217;s main opposition group, Alternance 2023, called on the international community on Friday to encourage the junta that overthrew President Ali Bongo to hand power back to civilians.



Military officers seized power in a coup on Wednesday minutes after an announcement that Bongo had secured a third term in an election. They placed him under house arrest and picked General Brice Oligui Nguema as transitional leader.



The junta has said little about its immediate plans after ending the Bongo family&#8217;s almost six decades in power, a move that drew cheering crowds onto the streets of Libreville.



Bongo had ruled since 2009, taking over from his father when he died after he had been president since 1967. Opponents say the family did little to share Gabon&#8217;s oil and mining wealth with its 2.3 million people, almost a third of whom live in poverty.



&#8220;We were happy that Ali Bongo was overthrown but &#8230; we hope that the international community will stand up in favour of the Republic and the democratic order in Gabon by asking the military to give back the power to the civilians,&#8221; Alexandra Pangha, spokesperson for Alternance 2023 leader Albert Ondo Ossa, told the BBC.



Alternance 2023 has said it wanted a full vote count from Tuesday&#8217;s election which it said would show Ondo Ossa had won. Gabon&#8217;s election commission said Bongo had been re-elected with 64% of the vote, while Ondo Ossa secured almost 31%.



Pangha said the opposition hoped to get an invitation from the junta to discuss the Central African country&#8217;s transition plan and return to the republican order but said it had not received anything yet.



Nguema, leader of the officers behind the coup, is expected to be sworn in as transitional president on Monday, the junta has said. He will also give his first presidential address.



&#8220;We think it&#8217;s absurd for the putschists to swear in on Monday,&#8221; Pangha said.



The African Union&#8217;s Peace and Security Council demanded on Thursday that the military refrain from any interference in the political process and called for fair and transparent elections.



France, Gabon&#8217;s former colonial ruler, and other Western powers have condemned the military takeover.



(Reporting by Alessandra Prentice and Anait Miridzhanian; Editing by Edmund Blair)

Gabon shutdown leaves truck drivers stranded at border crossing

Gabon opposition calls for pressure on junta to hand power to civilians

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="541" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-820x541.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426985" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-820x541.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-768x506.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-1536x1013.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HC4HTARYCNKDXDWVB6A4ZKHGDU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a plenary session of the BRICS summit via a video link in Moscow, Russia, August 23, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



Aug 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed bilateral ties including&nbsp;trade, energy and space&nbsp;cooperation&nbsp;with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi by phone, the Kremlin said on Monday.



The two leaders also discussed the planned expansion of the BRICS group of emerging economies &#8211; comprising India, Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa &#8211; as well as a summit of the G20 club of major economies that New Delhi will host next month.



Russia has sought to further strengthen already warm ties with India after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow. India is a major buyer of Russian oil.



&#8220;Topical issues of Russian-Indian relations, which are progressively developing in the spirit of a particularly privileged strategic partnership, were considered (in the call),&#8221; the Kremlin said in a statement.



&#8220;The positive dynamics of trade and economic cooperation was affirmed,&#8221; it added.



Last week Modi and Putin both took part in the BRICS summit in South Africa, though the Russian leader attended only via video link because of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.



The Kremlin, which strongly denies the ICC allegations, has said Putin will also not attend the G20 gathering in India.



Both Russia and India launched lunar probes this month, but only the Indian one landed successfully on the moon while the Russian craft crashed.



(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Russian President Putin attends BRICS summit via video link from Moscow

Russia’s Putin discusses bilateral ties, BRICS with India’s Modi in phone call

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="549" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-820x549.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426612" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-820x549.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-768x514.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-1536x1028.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/IN26AN3IDNPIRJS6GP7UAQAIYE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council, via video link in Moscow, Russia July 14, 2023. Sputnik/Alexey Babushkin/Kremlin via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Russian President Vladimir Putin has a reputation for keeping other national leaders waiting. But Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi appeared to turn the tables at last week&#8217;s Russia-Africa summit, leaving the Russian leader in front of the cameras for almost half a minute before entering the room.



The St Petersburg summit appeared intended to showcase strong mutual relations despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, it was overshadowed by Russia’s withdrawal from a UN-brokered deal on Black Sea grain, and Putin&#8217;s decision not to attend a summit of the BRICS developing nations in South Africa.



Attempts by African nations to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine also appear to have made little headway.



Russian officials may view the attendance of 17 African leaders as a positive, with the conference statement repeating multiple Kremlin talking points. But it represented a significant slump since 2019, when leaders from 45 of Africa&#8217;s 54 nations attended the Kremlin&#8217;s inaugural Africa summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.



Putin vowed in Sochi to double Russian trade with Africa from around $20 billion a year within five years. Instead, first the pandemic and then the Ukraine war battered that target, with only $14 billion in trade in 2020 recovering to what Putin says was $18 billion in 2022.



Russian officials say there was a further 35% increase on that in the first six months of this year despite international sanctions. Traditionally, about 70% of Russia&#8217;s Africa trade has been with just four countries &#8211; Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa.



While Africa’s more established powerbrokers still seem keen to retain contact with the Kremlin, they also appear to see growing limits to the relationship.



In what appeared to be the view of multiple nations, African Union chairman Azali Assoumani publicly told Putin countries would &#8220;not close our eyes to the issue between Russia and Ukraine, because these are two countries with which we have partnerships, and we can see the negative consequences around the world, especially in Africa&#8221;.



That development, like the summit itself, appears to point to a larger trend. The Kremlin is keen to maintain its links with larger African states like Egypt and South Africa, but it is finding it can win much greater influence in more marginalised, conflict-ridden nations where it can help local military elites grab and maintain power.



Following last week&#8217;s coup in Niger, pro-Russian and anti-French demonstrations have become an increasing feature of life in the capital Niamey, suggesting it might be the next country to move from Paris’s sphere of influence to that of Moscow.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WAGNER FOUNDER RESURFACES</h2>



Ukrainian officials – engaged in their own aggressive outreach across Africa – were particularly quick to blame the Kremlin for the coup, describing it as a “standard Russian tactic”.



One apparent winner at last week’s summit appeared to be founder of Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, pictured at the summit in the company of a senior official from the Central African Republic, one of the first countries in which it operated.



Having attempted to march on Moscow in what looked like his own attempted coup in June, the Wagner leader had largely vanished from public view as his fighters relocated to Belarus in a deal with Putin.



His presence at the summit suggests the group will continue to remain heavily involved in Africa, where the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace describes it as operating like an imperial-era military trading company.



The U.S.-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies this month accused Russian actors of running disinformation campaigns in at least 17 African nations, with wider efforts to undermine democracy under way in at least 23. Almost half of those nations were already in conflict, it said, representing 75% of the wars on the continent.



For more established, powerful African governments, the relationship with Russia appears something they wish to leverage in a more complex way – although the display of Russian weaponry to leaders during the summit suggests the Kremlin still sees the continent as a significant purchaser of its arms. Food, however, remains more important to governments and ordinary Africans.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-savage-food-diplomacy">SAVAGE FOOD DIPLOMACY</h2>



Russia’s decision to cancel the UN grain deal shortly before the summit might have damaged it diplomatically, but the Kremlin appears to hope it will achieve more by hurting Ukraine and boosting global prices – or by forcing the international community to offer Russia&#8217;s own food and fertiliser products better market access by renegotiating the agreement.



Since withdrawing from the deal, Russian forces have stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure, including port facilities in Odesa and on the Danube near Romania.



At the Africa summit, Putin appeared to make it clear Russia had no intention of prioritising African countries above its own commercial interests – he described the rising global grain prices that had followed Russia&#8217;s withdrawal from the grain deal as good for Russian firms.



But he also added that Moscow would share some of those revenues with the &#8220;poorest nations&#8221;, pledging to send free grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and the Central African Republic.



Kenyan officials described Russia’s moves on grain as “a stab in the back” – but no other African nation appeared willing to offer quite such strident criticism. South African officials say they are working to persuade Moscow to re-allow shipments from Ukraine, but with no visible success yet.



Few of Moscow’s African partners may be happy with Russia at the moment, but the Kremlin appears to be gambling that they will not abandon it entirely.



* Peter Apps is a Reuters columnist writing on defence and security issues. He joined Reuters in 2003, reporting from southern Africa and Sri Lanka and on global defence issues. He has been a columnist since 2016. He is also the founder of a think tank, the Project for Study of the 21st Century, and, since 2016, has been a Labour Party activist and British Army reservist.



(Editing by Nick Macfie)

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council in Moscow

What next for Russia-Africa relations after awkward summit?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="562" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-820x562.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426528" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-820x562.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-300x206.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-131x90.jpg 131w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-768x526.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-1536x1053.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2SHV6YPT6BOFRGYGFF6R2HXINY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov speaks during the annual end-of-year news conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia December 19, 2019. Picture taken December 19, 2019. Sputnik/Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



MOSCOW, Aug 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The Kremlin said on Tuesday that other countries&#8217; interest in joining the BRICS group of nations was proof of the bloc&#8217;s growing authority on the world stage, but hinted at disagreements over its possible expansion ahead of a summit.



BRICS&#8217; current five members &#8211; Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa &#8211; are due to convene in Johannesburg on Aug. 22-24 and a potential expansion will be high on the agenda, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.



&#8220;This is a very important topic because we see that more and more countries are making statements about their intention of joining BRICS,&#8221; Peskov told reporters.



&#8220;In general, such interest in the BRICS group shows the great potential of the association, its growing authority and, most importantly, the practical importance of this association.&#8221;



South Africa said last month that more than 40 other nations had expressed interest in joining the organisation, which aims to offset the perceived hegemony of the U.S.-led West in global affairs. Of those, 22 had formally asked to join, it said.



While not publicly revealing its stance on expansion, Russia has not opposed the idea publicly. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in June that the group&#8217;s growing attractiveness to other countries was testimony to the fact that it symbolised what he called &#8220;the evolution of the multipolar world&#8221;.



Pavel Knyazev, a Russian diplomat who represents Moscow&#8217;s interests in BRICS, has said the criteria and methodology for admitting new members is still being discussed and consensus around the issue is needed.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-nuances">&#8216;NUANCES&#8217;</h2>



Under Western sanctions because of the war in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a special military operation, Russia has boosted economic, military and other ties with China, India and various African and Latin American states to try to stave off what it calls Western attempts to isolate it.



Peskov said there what he called &#8220;nuances&#8221; within the current five-nation group about expanding its membership.



&#8220;All these nuances will of course be discussed during the upcoming summit&#8230;and the heads of state will speak about their position,&#8221; he said.



Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira struck the most cautious note on the idea of admitting new members during a news conference in June after the minister&#8217;s meeting.



He spoke of the need to &#8220;take care of&#8221; what he called &#8220;a brand and an asset&#8221; which he said was responsible for 31.5% of the world&#8217;s gross domestic product and 40% of its population and said discussions about its expansion were &#8220;a work in progress&#8221;.



Lavrov will represent Russia at the Johannesburg summit, President Vladimir Putin will dial in by video call.



Putin decided not to attend in person due to a warrant for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes by Russia in Ukraine, something Moscow rejects and denies. South Africa is an ICC member.



(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Andrew Osborn/Gareth Jones; Editing by Mark Trevelyan, Alex Richardson and Angus MacSwan)

Kremlin spokesman Peskov speaks during a news conference in Moscow

Kremlin says BRICS is growing in stature, hints at disagreements over expansion plans

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="517" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-820x517.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-426478" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-820x517.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-300x189.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-143x90.jpg 143w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-768x484.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-1536x969.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/3GJLBGWDDRJX5H7W5QPOQLPJ4Y-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a session of the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, July 27, 2023. Sputnik/Pavel Bednyakov/Pool via REUTERS</figcaption></figure>



July 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Russian President Vladimir Putin told African leaders on Friday Moscow respected their peace proposal on Ukraine and was carefully studying it.



Putin&nbsp;also told&nbsp;a Russia-Africa summit that Russia was increasing food supplies to Africa, including some free grain shipments which he announced a day earlier, and was interested in developing military cooperation with the continent.



African leaders presented their peace initiative last month to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy but it has failed to gain traction with either side.



Putin initially greeted it by reciting a list of Russian grievances against Ukraine and the West, while Zelenskiy has rejected the idea of a ceasefire that would leave Russia in control of nearly a fifth of Ukraine and give Russian forces time to regroup.



On day two of the summit, Putin said Russia was prepared to supply some weapons to Africa for free to enhance security on the continent, and to work more closely with African law enforcement and intelligence services.



He said it was increasing agricultural exports and would remain a reliable supplier of food. Moscow had written off $23 billion of debt, he said, without saying over what time period or naming the countries involved.



(Reporting by Reuters; writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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