How will Trump deal with Africa on trade?

As the world anticipates the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on global trade relations, many are left wondering how his administration will approach trade with Africa. Despite his vocal stance on trade deals, Trump has mentioned very little about Africa, particularly in the context of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In 2015, non-oil and gas trade under AGOA into the U.S. only accounted for around $4.5 billion, representing a mere 2% of the country's total global trade volume. While this seems insignificant for the U.S., it holds greater importance for Africa. CNBC Africa recently invited Paul Clark, Africa Fund Manager at Ashburton Investments, to shed light on the implications of Trump's trade policies on the African continent. Paul Clark expressed a sense of calm regarding the future of U.S.-Africa trade relations under the Trump administration. He emphasized the lack of clarity in Trump's foreign policy and articulated that AGOA benefits only make up 2% of Africa's total trade, with a balanced trade flow between Africa and AGOA countries. Clark highlighted that a significant portion of AGOA trade involves oil and gas products, which are typically duty-free. He suggested that the trade agreement is unlikely to undergo significant changes, given its recent extension to 2025 and the checks and balances system in the U.S. government. Regarding potential signals from the new administration, Clark pointed out the complexities of the U.S. political system, noting that any modifications to AGOA would require a considerable amount of time and effort. He stressed that Africa's aid within the U.S. budget is minimal, comprising less than 20 basis points, with a substantial portion allocated to healthcare projects. Clark acknowledged the potential budgetary savings but warned against cutting essential healthcare programs, especially those related to diseases like HIV. Furthermore, Clark addressed the impact of U.S. business interests on U.S. aid to Africa, highlighting the symbiotic relationship between U.S. companies and aid programs. He emphasized the role of U.S. businesses in sectors such as peace and security, where U.S. companies provide critical military equipment. Clark underscored the lobbying efforts by U.S. businesses to maintain favorable trade and aid policies with African nations. In terms of diplomatic efforts, Clark recognized the active role of U.S. officials, trade delegations, and embassies in advocating for mutually beneficial trade relations between the U.S. and African countries. He cited examples of U.S. companies advocating for African inclusion in AGOA, emphasizing the reciprocal advantages for both parties. Clark also considered the broader implications of international relations and the importance of fostering positive ties with African nations. He acknowledged the significance of Africa in the global economy while highlighting the relatively small percentage it represents in terms of U.S. trade and aid figures. Clark speculated that Trump's focus may primarily be on larger economic players like China and Asia, rather than Africa, given the nature of goods Africa exports to the U.S. In conclusion, Clark urged for a measured approach and emphasized the need to assess trade relations with Africa within the broader context of U.S. economic priorities. While uncertainties remain regarding Trump's policies, particularly on trade, the interview highlighted the nuanced dynamics of U.S.-Africa trade relations and the intricate balance of economic interests at play.