NESG’s 2018 macroeconomic outlook

In a recent interview with CNBC Africa, Olusegun Omisakin, the Head of Research at the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), discussed the group's 2018 Macroeconomic outlook report. The report emphasizes the need for Nigeria to set a sustainable path for inclusive growth and development in 2018 and beyond. Omisakin highlighted the challenges Nigeria faces, particularly in the wake of four episodes of recession primarily caused by fluctuations in oil prices. He stressed the importance of not only focusing on economic growth but also on addressing issues related to inclusive growth, economic and social inclusion, and unemployment rates that currently stand at around 40%. With Nigeria projected to become the third most populous country by 2050, with a population of 410 million, Omisakin underscored the urgency of preparing for inclusive growth, value addition, and employment opportunities for the massive youth population. One of the key themes addressed in the interview was Nigeria's demographic emergency. Omisakin pointed out the rapid population growth in Nigeria and highlighted the necessity of having strategic plans in place to address the challenges posed by this demographic shift. The NESG proposes various strategies for achieving inclusive growth across sectors in Nigeria. These strategies include promoting sectors beyond oil to increase value addition to the GDP, focusing on social inclusion to strengthen the social sector, and implementing social safety nets to improve the welfare of the population, especially the 79% below the poverty line. Omisakin also emphasized the need for good governance to support growth in productive sectors. The NESG calls for a conducive business environment, skill development, and technology adoption to attract investment and promote growth in sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and services. The group's macroeconomic outlook for 2018 includes three scenarios. The pessimistic scenario predicts a GDP growth rate of 3.5% with inflation stabilizing at 14-15%. The more realistic scenario anticipates a GDP growth rate of 2.3%, while the pessimistic scenario foresees growth dropping to 1.5% due to neglect of governance responsibilities amidst election distractions. In conclusion, the NESG's report and recommendations aim to guide the Nigerian government in planning and implementing policies to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the country.