Fitch: Cote d'ivoire growth to average 6.5% over 2024-2025

Cote d'Ivoire's economic growth is expected to remain robust, averaging 6.5 percent over the years 2024-2025, according to Fitch Ratings. This growth is primarily driven by a significant increase in crude oil production from the Baleine field and rising mining output, among other positive indicators. Despite this promising outlook, Fitch recently downgraded Cote d'Ivoire's credit rating to BB-, which is considered a non-investment grade speculative rating. Samuel Mathey, the President of the African Foundation for Entrepreneurship and Economic Development, provided insights on this rating and other economic indicators in a recent interview on CNBC Africa. Mathey acknowledged that the BB- rating poses challenges for Cote d'Ivoire in terms of attracting investment, as investors often prefer higher ratings like AA+ or BB+. He highlighted that the government now needs to focus on restoring confidence in the investment community and improving fiscal management to address the speculative rating. Despite this, Fitch recognized Cote d'Ivoire's positive fiscal management track record as a strength. Furthermore, Mathey discussed the current account deficit in Cote d'Ivoire, noting that the deficit is narrowing primarily on the revenue side. He explained that while Fitch expects the deficit to continue declining in the coming years with higher revenue, there is a pressing need for the government to reduce administration expenses. The political opposition in Cote d'Ivoire has raised concerns about unnecessary expenses, such as maintaining a senate that they believe could be streamlined for better fiscal management. On the issue of debt sustainability, Mathey expressed concerns about the country's rising debt levels. Cote d'Ivoire's government debt increased to 58.1 percent in 2023 and is projected to rise further to 58.3 percent in 2024 before declining to 55 percent by 2026. Mathey emphasized the importance of managing expenses effectively to avoid taking on more debt to repay existing obligations, which he described as a concerning practice. Lastly, Mathey touched on the weak reserves in the Wemu region, highlighting the significant deterioration in pooled reserves. While this topic was not extensively discussed during the interview, it underscores the broader challenges facing the region in terms of financial stability and resilience. In conclusion, Cote d'Ivoire's economic outlook remains positive despite the credit rating downgrade, with key sectors like oil production and mining driving growth. However, the government must address issues such as fiscal management, administration expenses, and debt sustainability to bolster long-term economic stability.