Fitch: Mpox outbreak likely to impact production, consumption

Fitch Ratings has issued a warning regarding the potential impact of a substantial increase in mpox cases in Sub-Saharan Africa on consumption and production. The ratings agency predicts that managing inflationary effects, particularly in the event of significant disruptions to food production and logistics, could pose challenges for economies in the region. While the severity and longevity of the economic and fiscal impact of the virus, as well as the availability and size of donor support, will determine the overall rating effects, the agency stresses the need for vigilance in addressing the emerging threat. Paul Gamble, Senior Director of the Sovereign Group at Fitch Ratings, discussed these concerns with CNBC Africa, shedding light on the current situation regarding Mpox in the region. While confirmed cases have been reported in several Sub-Saharan African countries, including Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Nigeria, the numbers remain relatively low at this stage. However, the potential for a significant acceleration in the spread of the virus could have profound economic implications, impacting factors such as economic activity, productivity, and inflation rates. Gamble emphasized the importance of monitoring the situation closely and taking proactive measures to mitigate the potential risks associated with the Mpox outbreak. Additionally, he highlighted the financial challenges posed by prevention and response efforts, underscoring the need for timely and adequate donor support to address the growing crisis. Despite the arrival of vaccines in some African countries, logistical and infrastructural constraints may hinder the effective distribution and administration of these preventive measures. Gamble noted the critical role of donor support in bridging these gaps and ensuring swift and efficient response to the evolving health crisis. With the emergence of a new and more contagious strain of the virus, the urgency of the situation has been further underscored, necessitating swift and coordinated action to contain the spread of Mpox and protect public health. While the prospect of vaccine hoarding by other countries remains a concern, Gamble expressed optimism that global cooperation and solidarity will prevail in ensuring equitable access to essential vaccines for all affected regions. As the situation continues to evolve, Fitch Ratings will closely monitor developments and assess the potential impact on African economies and sovereign ratings, providing valuable insights to policymakers and investors alike.