<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529685" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, U.S., April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Nov 13 (Reuters) &#8211; The International Monetary Fund should sell 4% of its gold to help offer debt relief to low income countries devastated by climate-related catastrophes, a study said as climate financing dominates early talks at the COP29 summit.



From the Caribbean to Africa, low income countries have turned to the IMF in recent years for support in the face of shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic, driving up repayments to the lender of last resort in subsequent years.



Although the IMF has a facility known as Catastrophe Containment Relief Trust (CCRT), this only covers 30 poor countries and has just $103 million available, said researchers from the Boston University Global Development Centre.



The CCRT is used to pay off an eligible member state&#8217;s loans to the IMF for up to two years, providing immediate relief and allowing those funds to be targeted at other priorities.



&#8220;Many climate-vulnerable countries have been unable to access the CCRT as its eligibility criteria fails to account for climate vulnerability &#8230; and funding is severely limited,&#8221; the researchers said in a report.



The solution lies in selling some of the IMF&#8217;s 90.5 million ounces of gold reserves, the report said, taking advantage of elevated prices to boost the fund and cover more countries.



Selling 4% of the IMF&#8217;s gold would generate $9.52 billion, the study said, covering debt relief for 86 countries.



&#8220;With current gold prices exceeding $2,600 per ounce, selling a small fraction of gold has the potential to generate significant revenues and easily replenish the CCRT,&#8221; it said.



Gold was trading at $2,606.42 per ounce on Wednesday.



IMF gold reserve sales are rare. The last was in 2009/10, when it offloaded an eighth of its reserves, which was triggered by the need to boost its lending capacity.



At its inception in 1944, member states used to pay their IMF quotas with gold, the research report said, meaning it accumulated reserves at a historical cost of just $45 per ounce.



Repayments of IMF loans are taking a bigger chunk of annual debt servicing costs for vulnerable economies, the report said.



The Indian Ocean island of Madagascar will pay $106 million to the IMF next year, a quarter of its debt service, rising to $158 million and 41% in 2026, the report added.



Mozambique will also experience an increase in repayments to the IMF during a similar period, the researchers found.



Any sale of IMF gold would require support from the bulk of its executive board members, and for member states to pledge to channel their share of the proceeds to the CCRT, they said.



&#8220;Replenishing the CCRT should be considered a high priority because, in contrast to other IMF lending programs, the CCRT comes with no conditionality,&#8221; they concluded.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Alexander Smith)

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington

IMF urged to cash in on gold price to help poor countries hit by climate change

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="546" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-820x546.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553742" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-768x511.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GettyImages-452758655-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA &#8211; DECEMBER 01: Danny Jordaan (SAFA president) during the arrival of the FIFA World Cup Trophy at Lanseria Airport on December 01, 2013 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Lee Warren/Gallo images)</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African Football Association (SAFA) President Danny Jordaan was arrested on Wednesday over allegations he used the organisation&#8217;s money for his own purposes, according to local media reports.



Jordaan, who was a leading figure in bringing the 2010 World Cup to South Africa, had tried to interdict his imminent arrest on Tuesday, but the Johannesburg High Court is only scheduled to hear his submission on Thursday.



The arrest stems from a raid by police on the SAFA offices in March, after which police spokesperson Katlego Mogale said the allegations are that &#8220;between 2014 and 2018, the president of SAFA used the organisation&#8217;s resources for his personal gain, including hiring a private security company for his personal protection and a public relations company, without authorisation from the SAFA board.&#8221;



Jordaan, 73, and his reported co-accused, SAFA chief financial officer Gronie Hluyo and businessman Trevor Neethling, are due to appear in court later on Wednesday.



Neither Jordaan nor SAFA responded to a request for comment from Reuters, but in his affidavit to court seeking to block his arrest, he denies any wrongdoing.



(Reporting by Nick Said; Editing by Christian Radnedge)

FIFA World Cup Trophy arrives at Lanseria Airport

South Africa FA president Danny Jordaan arrested

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553691" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/ZTA2SOQSIFIDVMFOYKRV5C5I24-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Zainab Abubakar eats cooked food with her children at Gubio IDP camp in Maiduguri, Nigeria October 28, 2024. REUTERS/Abraham Achirga</figcaption></figure>



GUBIO, Nigeria, Nov 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Unrelenting price rises and a brutal insurgency had already made it hard for Nigerians in northeastern Borno State to feed their families. When a dam collapsed in September, flooding the state capital and surrounding farmland, many people ran out of options.



Now they queue for handouts in camps for those displaced by fighting between extremist Boko Haram rebels and the military. When those run out, they seek work on local farms where they risk being killed or raped by local bandits.



&#8220;I can&#8217;t even cry anymore. I&#8217;m too tired,&#8221; said Indo Usman, who tried to start again in the state capital Maiduguri, rearing animals for the two annual Muslim holy days, after years of repeatedly fleeing rebel attacks in rural Borno.



The flood washed that all away, driving her, her husband and their six children to a bare room at Gubio, an unfinished housing project about 96 km (60 miles) northwest of Maiduguri that has become a displacement camp.



Torrential rains and floods in 29 of Nigeria&#8217;s 36 states this year have destroyed more than 1.5 million hectares of cropland, affecting more than nine million people, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.



Climate change is a factor, as is Nigeria&#8217;s poorly maintained or non-existent infrastructure as well as vulnerabilities caused by the weakening Naira currency and the scrapping of a government fuel subsidy.



The cost of staples like rice and beans has doubled, tripled or even quadrupled in a year, depending on location &#8212; an unmanageable shock for millions of poor families.



Mass kidnappings for ransom in the northwest and conflict between farmers and pastoralists in the central belt, traditionally the nation&#8217;s bread basket, have also disrupted agriculture and squeezed food supplies.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-hungriest-of-the-hungry">&#8216;HUNGRIEST OF THE HUNGRY&#8217;</h2>



Roughly 40% of Nigeria&#8217;s more than 200 million people live below the international poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, the World Bank estimates.



Already, 25 million people live in acute food and nutrition insecurity &#8211; putting their lives or livelihoods in immediate danger, according to a joint analysis by the government and U.N. agencies. That number is expected to rise to 33 million by next June-August.



&#8220;The food crisis in Nigeria is immense because what we are seeing is a crisis within a crisis within a crisis,&#8221; said Trust Mlambo, head of programme for the northeast at the World Food Programme, in an interview with Reuters in Maiduguri.



With international donors focused on emergencies in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan, Mlambo said there was not enough funding to fully meet Nigeria&#8217;s growing need for food aid.



&#8220;We are really prioritising the hungriest of the hungry,&#8221; he said.



In Borno, the Alau dam, upriver from Maiduguri, gave way on Sept. 9, four days after state officials had told the public it was secure. Local residents and engineers had been warning that it was under strain.



Hundreds of people were killed in the resulting flood, according to aid workers who did not wish to be identified for fear of offending the state government. A spokesperson for the state government did not respond to requests for comment.



Zainab Abubakar, a self-employed tailor in the city who lived in relative comfort with her husband and six children in a house with a refrigerator, was awoken at midnight by water rushing into her bedroom.



They ran for their lives while the flood destroyed their house and carried everything away, including her sewing machine. Now, they are sheltering at Gubio and collecting rice from aid agencies in a plastic bucket.



&#8220;There is no alternative,&#8221; she said.



In Banki, on Nigeria&#8217;s border with Cameroon about 133 km (83 miles) southeast of Maiduguri, Mariam Hassan lost crops of maize, pepper and then okra in repeated flooding of her subsistence farm this year, leaving her with nothing to eat or sell.



&#8220;I beg the neighbours or relatives to give me food, not even for me but for my children, for us to survive,&#8221; said Hassan, who has eight children. &#8220;The situation has turned me into a beggar.&#8221;



(Additional reporting by Ahmed Kingimi and MacDonald Dzirutwe; Writing by Estelle Shirbon; Editing by Philippa Fletcher)

More Nigerians face hunger as floods worsen impact of inflation, conflict

Millions of Nigerians go hungry as floods compound hardship

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553664" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/WTO-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Meghan, Duchess of Sussex (not pictured), co-hosts an event of Women in Leadership with Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization in Abuja, Nigeria, May 11, 2024. REUTERS/Marvellous Durowaiye/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



GENEVA, Nov 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The World Trade Organization&nbsp;is&nbsp;planning&nbsp;a special meeting of its top decision-making body later this month where a call could be made on the reappointment of its&nbsp;Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a document showed on Tuesday.



Trade sources said such a meeting appeared to be a route that could fast-track the appointment process to avoid any risk of it getting blocked by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose teams and allies have criticised both Okonjo-Iweala and the trade watchdog in the past.



The&nbsp;WTO document sent by the General Council chair said the first day of the Nov. 28-29 meeting would allow Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance minister, to present her vision for the 166-member organisation and answer delegates&#8217; questions. The second day could provide &#8220;an opportunity for Members to take a decision on the appointment of the next Director-General&#8221;, it said.



Okonjo-Iweala, 70, is the sole candidate for the job and told Reuters she wants to complete &#8220;unfinished business&#8221; from her first term which includes new rules on cutting fishing subsidies and finding a fix for its hobbled appeals court.



Dozens of countries have voiced support in recent WTO meetings for her reappointment after her term expires on Aug. 31,&nbsp;2025. But some have privately observed that the WTO&#8217;s election process, which typically lasts months, could allow for Trump&#8217;s team to oppose her candidacy.



Trump is set to be inaugurated on Jan. 20.



In 2020, his administration gave its support to a rival candidate and sought to block her first term. She secured U.S. backing only when President Joe Biden succeeded Trump in the White House.



Those who follow the trade body say it is likely to face a messy, recriminatory period for trade under Trump. He has vowed to impose new tariffs of 10%-20% on global imports and 60% on goods from China, well above the rates it has committed to under WTO rules and upending global trade flows.



Asked about the potential to speed the WTO&#8217;s reappointment of Okonjo-Iweala, Trump&#8217;s transition team responded with a non-specific answer.



&#8220;The American people reelected President Trump because they trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world. When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary action to do just that,&#8221; a Trump-Vance transition spokesperson said in an emailed statement.



The U.S. Trade Representative&#8217;s office, still controlled by the Biden administration, declined to comment.



There is no guarantee that WTO members, which approve decisions by consensus, will agree to a second term for Okonjo-Iweala at the November meeting and the chair could opt to postpone the decision, trade sources said.



If they do pursue it, it might backfire, suggested Keith Rockwell, a former WTO director and senior fellow at the Hinrich Foundation. &#8220;Let&#8217;s see how the United States likes being pushed into a corner,&#8221; he said, calling the actions to speed up the appointment process &#8220;unprecedented.&#8221;



(Reporting by Emma Farge; Additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington; editing by Thomas Seythal, Alexandra Hudson and Richard Chang)

Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, co-hosts an event of Women in Leadership with Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the World Trade Organization in Abuja

WTO may seek to reappoint chief ahead of Trump presidency

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.



“There is more fear about 2025′s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.



“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.



A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.



Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.&nbsp;



Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”



However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.



The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.



In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.&nbsp;



At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.



Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.



The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-bearish-year-ahead-for-oil"><a></a>Bearish year ahead for oil</h2>



The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.



“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.&nbsp;



Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.



Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.



“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.



Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.



For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.



Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="564" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-820x564.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553370" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-820x564.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-300x206.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-131x90.jpg 131w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-768x528.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-1536x1056.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5ZABZJ64ORN6FNDDUVALDCPACU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A shopper walks past the DSTV satellite TV subscription store, a product of MultiChoice Group Limited, a South Africa-based entertainment company, at the Mall of the North, in Polokwane, in the Limpopo province of South Africa, March 31, 2024. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 12 (Reuters) &#8211; South African pay television company MultiChoice Group reported a 99% fall in half-year profit on Tuesday and described the operating environment as &#8220;extremely hostile&#8221;.



The owner of DStv, whose pay-TV business operates across 50 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, said its performance was marred by weaker local currencies and constrained consumer spending particularly in Nigeria and extreme power disruptions in Zambia.



Multichoice said its adjusted core headline earnings per share &#8211; its measure of the underlying performance &#8211; fell to 2 cents per share for the six months ended Sept. 30, down from 356 cents per share a year earlier.



Overall group revenue at Multichoice fell by 10% to 25.4 billion rand ($1.41 billion) on a reported basis but grew by 4% on an organic basis, which excludes the impact of foreign exchange effects and mergers and acquisitions.



Multichoice said subscriptions fell by 5% and 15% respectively in its South African and Rest of Africa operations.



It said profit was further hit by incremental investments in streaming platform Showmax, which Multichoice is prioritising to fight off competition from streaming giants Netflix, Amazon and Disney.



&#8220;Stripping out Showmax, the group would have seen reported trading profit increase by 28% on an organic basis,&#8221; said Multichoice, whose shares were down 0.3% at 1212 GMT.



(Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov; Editing by Tannur Anders, Jan Harvey and Alexander Smith)

A shopper walks past the DSTV satellite TV subscription store, in Polokwane

South Africa’s Multichoice profit plunges as subscriptions slip

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="527" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-820x527.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553304" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-820x527.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-300x193.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-140x90.jpg 140w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-768x494.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-1536x988.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/KB3XP45BC5OJRD6EVRXRJ2KARA-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Job seekers wait beside a road for casual work offered by passing motorists in Eikenhof, south of Johannesburg, South Africa, November 20, 2023. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



PRETORIA, Nov 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s unemployment rate fell in the three months after the formation of a coalition government that has boosted business confidence and led to hopes for more progress on economic reform, data showed on Tuesday.



The official unemployment rate fell to 32.1% in the third quarter of 2024, from 33.5% in the second quarter, the first time the official rate had fallen in a year, Statistics South Africa figures showed.



The coalition government was formed in June after the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years, pushing it into a broad alliance with the market-friendly Democratic Alliance and other smaller parties.



Investor optimism over the coalition fuelled a rally in the country&#8217;s rand currency and local-currency debt.



The decline in joblessness in the latest three-month period was driven by rising employment in six of the 10 industries tracked by the statistics agency: community and social services, construction, trade, agriculture, mining and utilities.



There were job losses in transport, manufacturing, private households and finance.



However, South Africa still has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, and Black South Africans continue to experience the worst unemployment levels relative to the country&#8217;s other racial groups.



Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke told a press conference that the long-term unemployment rate had risen more than 10 percentage points in the last decade, rooted in a mismatch between people&#8217;s skills and the jobs on offer.



Under an expanded definition of unemployment, which includes those discouraged from seeking work, 41.9% of the labour force was jobless in the third quarter, down from 42.6% in the second.



(Reporting by Kopano Gumbi; Additional reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Alexander Winning and Alex Richardson)

Job seekers wait beside a road for casual work offered by passing motorists

South African unemployment rate dips under coalition government

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-553286" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/O54XSCJWJJMT5LVMUWPPJYCAQE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: People work out on the outskirts of Dakar, Senegal October 29, 2024. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI/DAKAR, Nov 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Senegal will have to wait until at least June to get any sort of resolution of its lending programme with the International Monetary Fund that could lead to fresh disbursements, a source with knowledge of the process told Reuters.



There was no immediate comment from the finance ministry on the prospect of a delay that will be a test for a government seeking quick support to help it deal with an increasingly precarious fiscal situation.



A $1.9 billion IMF programme agreed in June 2023 has been on hold since a government audit three months later uncovered larger debt and deficit figures than the previous administration had reported, sending yields on the West African nation&#8217;s dollar bonds soaring and triggering credit ratings downgrades.



Dakar is seeking a new programme with the Fund, but the source said the IMF will not even consider the request before the audit findings, which are scheduled to be certified by Senegal&#8217;s court of auditors mid-December, are subsequently reviewed by the Fund&#8217;s executive board.



&#8220;They need to start by sorting out the issues identified in the audit,&#8221; the source said. Following the certification, the Fund&#8217;s board was expected to determine the next steps towards a resolution, a process expected to take another six months, the source added.



Senegal&#8217;s finance ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



Senegal secured in June last year $1.526 billion under a three-year IMF Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility programme plus additional financing of $371.1 million from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility providing long-term concessional cash for climate-related spending.



Senegal got payouts of $216 million when it reached the loan agreement with the Fund and another $279 million in December last year after getting sign off on the first review by the executive board.



Subsequent reviews and IMF board sign-off, the step that ultimately triggers more payouts, have not been completed.



The IMF board is expected to consider various remedies for the misreporting, the source said, including demanding potential reimbursements for any loans advanced on the basis of the misreported data.



Another source confirmed a resolution would take &#8220;a few months&#8221;.



The Fund said last month it was assessing the implications of the data revisions.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-cash-strapped">CASH-STRAPPED</h2>



Senegal had already been grappling with slower-than-projected growth and a worsening budget deficit before the revelations about the larger debt and deficit figures.



President Bassirou Diomaye Faye&#8217;s government reopened a privately placed international bond last month to raise $300 million.



Public debt averaged 76.3% of GDP, compared with the previously reported 65.9%, the audit found. The end-2023 budget deficit stood at over 10%, more than double the original indication.



&#8220;The hidden fiscal cost revelations under the previous government have raised markets&#8217; concerns around Senegal&#8217;s debt sustainability,&#8221;&nbsp;J.P.Morgan&nbsp;said in a research note.



The yield on Senegal&#8217;s 2048 bond rose above 10% for the first time since early August, in the sessions following the release of the initial audit findings.



The bonds inched down in early trading on Tuesday.



Faye, elected in March on the back of youth voters&#8217; disenchantment with the previous government&#8217;s economic policies, has called a snap legislative election for Sunday.



He blamed the previous parliament&#8217;s refusal to initiate a new budget law, and its pushback against a plan to abolish wasteful state bodies for the move.



His Pastef party will need to secure a majority of the 165 seats to implement his economic reforms. Pastef held just 26 seats in the dissolved legislature.



&#8220;Parliamentary elections can provide some needed political capital for the new government to commence the now heavier lifting required to correct the trajectory of fiscal accounts,&#8221; J.P.Morgan said.



Implications of misreporting to IMF generally make investors nervous. The Fund suspended disbursements to Mozambique in 2016 after it failed to disclose more than $1 billion in external loans.



(Reporting by Duncan Miriri and Portia Crowe; Editing by Karin Strohecker and Andrew Heavens)

FILE PHOTO: People work out on the outskirts of Dakar

Senegal will have to wait at least until June for IMF loan resolution, source says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-553187" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Dado Ruvic | Reuters</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin was trading just shy of $90,000 Monday night after breaching $80,000 just a day earlier.



The flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by 12% at $89,100, according to Coin Metrics. Earlier Monday, it rose as high as $89,623.00. Its price is expected by many investors to continue making fresh records on its way up to $100,000 later this year.



“Bitcoin is now in price discovery mode after breaking through all-time highs early last Wednesday morning when it was officially declared that Trump won the election,” said Mike Colonnese, an analyst at H.C. Wainwright. “Strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the balance of 2024 and [we] see bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.”



Crypto investors have been cheering President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to make the regulatory environment more supportive and even friendly toward crypto businesses, which have long struggled with a lack of clarity of the rules of the road.



While bitcoin has long been deemed a safe asset in Washington – that is, not subject to securities laws – the long tail of cryptocurrencies and crypto-related startups have been operating in a risky grey area.



“That’s just shifted 180 degrees,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC. “We’re now in a positive regulatory environment, we now have tailwinds from that, and that comes in the case of a market that was already in a bull market … that’s going to push us higher.”



Ether was trading higher by 5.8% Monday evening. Payments token XRP rose nearly 4% and the token linked to decentralized finance project Polygon gained more than 4%. Dogecoin has been one of the biggest winners – likely due to its connection with Elon Musk, who helped get Trump elected. It’s up 38%.



In the stock market, Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained about 3% and 5%, respectively, in extended trading. In the regular session on Monday, Coinbase surged 19% to trade above $300 for the first time since 2021. It’s now about 6% from its high from that year.



Traders and analysts agree this rally is just only beginning.



“It does seem like there’s an air gap between the previous [bitcoin] all-time highs around $72,000 and $100,000,” Hougan said. “It’s hard exactly to see what would force sellers to come into this market and halt the momentum before we get to that level. Of course, there are no guarantees. You could see pullbacks, but we’re in a new crypto market cycle. … I do think that we are right to be bullish and the bias is still on the upside.”

107351661-17036182092023-10-24t101848z_1359207624_rc2yy3ac3wuf_rtrmadp_0_fintech-crypto-bitcoin

Bitcoin is closing in on $90,000 for the first time ever

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="590" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-820x590.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-550088" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-820x590.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-300x216.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-125x90.jpg 125w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-768x553.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-1536x1105.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/5U27LJVU5BN7XKS2NTCXPR65SQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A branch of South African mobile communications provider Vodacom in Cape Town is shown in this picture taken November 10, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 11 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africa&#8217;s biggest telecoms operator Vodacom said on Monday it will not look into other M&amp;A deals after its proposed merger with fibre group Maziv was blocked by regulators last month.



The decision by the country&#8217;s Competition Tribunal was a blow to Vodacom&#8217;s ambitions of expanding its fibre footprint nationwide.



It followed an extensive 26-day hearing where the merger parties, the Competition Commission, government and rivals of Vodacom and Maziv argued for or against the deal which was initially proposed in 2021.



Vodacom Chief Executive Shameel Joosub said that looking at other M&amp;A deals is off the table.&nbsp;&#8220;We don&#8217;t want to be stuck in the competition authorities for another three years,&#8221; he told a media call on Monday after the group reported a 19.4% drop in half-year earnings, hurt by start-up losses at its Ethiopian operations and foreign currency depreciation.



Vodacom shares were down 4.53% at 1122 GMT.



The group, which is majority owned by Britain&#8217;s Vodafone, is still awaiting the Tribunal&#8217;s detailed reasons for blocking the Maziv merger. &#8220;It&#8217;s a travesty for South Africa that we&#8217;ve lost the opportunity for such a material investment, which would have been between 14 and 17 billion (rand) investment, plus an additional 25 billion in capex,&#8221; Joosub said.



The Tribunal can take up to two months to detail the grounds for its ruling but Joosub said that he hopes to receive it more quickly to help the group prepare for a potential appeal.



Vodacom also cut its interim dividend by 6.6% from a year earlier after its results on Monday.



It launched Safaricom Ethiopia last year with a consortium led by Kenya&#8217;s Safaricom, which is part-owned by the South African company and Vodafone, betting that the new unit would break even in year four &#8211; but this has been pushed back.



&#8220;As a result of the currency impact in Ethiopia Safaricom (we) revised the EBITDA break-even target for Ethiopia to FY 2027 from FY 2026,&#8221; Joosub said.



Group service revenue declined 1.2% in the six months ended Sept. 30 to 58.6 billion rand ($3.33 billion) due to currency headwinds. However, on a normalised basis it grew 9.9%.



($1 = 17.6023 rand)



(Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov; Editing by Kim Coghill, Eileen Soreng and Susan Fenton)

FILE PHOTO: A branch of South African mobile communications provider Vodacom in Cape Town

Vodacom not looking for other M&A deals after blocked Maziv merger

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-552808" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/NJ2MN73ZIBPIVI4JIKXJJHMY2E-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ghana&#8217;s former president and current main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) party presidential candidate John Dramani Mahama, 65, addresses supporters during a political campaign launch ahead of December polls, in Tamale, Ghana, July 27, 2024. REUTERS/Francis Kokoroko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ACCRA, Nov 11 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Ghana&#8217;s main opposition leader John Dramani Mahama looks set to win December&#8217;s presidential election, an opinion poll showed on Monday, placing him ahead of his main challenger, ruling party candidate Muhamudu Bawumia.



Former president Mahama, 65, and current Vice President Bawumia, 60, are the two main contenders for the Dec. 7 election to replace President Nana Akufo-Addo, who is stepping down in January after two terms as head of the gold- and cocoa-producing nation. Eleven other candidates are also running.



Global InfoAnalytics, an Accra-based research group, released poll results on Monday that saw Mahama winning 52%, followed by 41.3% for Bawumia. The poll has a 1.9% error margin.



It found that voters were mainly concerned about the economy, jobs, education and infrastructure.



Mahama invested heavily in infrastructure during his 2012-17 presidency, when he faced criticism for power shortages and economic instability. His government was also embroiled in corruption allegations, although Mahama was never directly accused.



He is running again as the candidate of the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).



Bawumia, an economist and&nbsp;former&nbsp;central banker, is running for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), which grappled with Ghana&#8217;s worst economic crisis in a generation.



Both candidates have presented plans to boost the economy and improve livelihoods.



Ghana, the world&#8217;s second largest cocoa producer, defaulted on most of its $30 billion external debt in 2022 after years of overstretched borrowing.



Akufo-Addo&#8217;s government secured a 3-year, $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund in 2023 and is now on the final lap of a painful process required for the money to be disbursed.



The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted an NDC win in October due to the NPP&#8217;s economic record. Fitch Solutions published a similar forecast that month.



Both Mahama and Bawumia are from northern Ghana, a historic NDC stronghold where the NPP has been making inroads.



Political analyst Alidu Seidu of the University of Ghana said the election would probably be a very close contest between the two.



Results were difficult to predict and a run-off vote was likely, he said.



No party has ever won more than two consecutive terms in Ghana&#8217;s democratic history.



(Editing by Sofia Christensen and Giles Elgood)

Ghana’s NDC party campaign launch ahead of December elections, in Tamale

Main Ghana opposition leader tipped to win presidential vote, poll shows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-552774" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high near $81,000 and futures premiums soared, in a clear sign that investors believe the record-run in the world’s largest cryptocurrency is poised for even more gains on the back of U.S. elections that saw a swell of pro-crypto candidates win office.



Open interest in bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000 rose to more than $2.8 billion on the popular Deribit derivatives exchange, one of a few crypto native platforms that offers futures trading. Deribit encompasses most of the offshore options market.



“The options market’s bias is heavily toward continued momentum. Call options trade at a premium to puts, and open interest in out-of-the-money calls has grown,”&nbsp;Vetle Lunde,&nbsp;head of research at K33 Research, told CNBC.



A call option gives the buyer the right to buy shares of an underlying asset at a certain price for a specified period of time. Buying a call option is a bet the asset price will move higher. Buying a put option is a bet the asset price will fall.



The CME derivates exchange offers bitcoin futures contracts and is a popular way for institutions in the U.S. to make bets on the future price of bitcoin. Velde told CNBC that on Friday CME premiums for ether and bitcoin averaged 14.5% and 14%, respectively. Ahead of the election, Velde says these premiums sat at 7%, and had spent a majority of the past half year hovering slightly below 10%.



“The recent surge is a meaningful deviation higher emphasizing the bullish flows of late,” he added, noting that yields more or less stabilized well into the double digits after the election became clear.



“Alongside the growth in leverage, we saw the first meaningful example of growing yields in offshore derivatives, indicative of the move being led by determined risk-takers positioning for further upside,” said Velde.



The early innings of bitcoin’s push higher coincided with substantial growth in open interest in perpetual swaps, or contracts that allow buyers to speculate on where they think prices are headed without a set expiration date.



But liquidity in crypto markets on weekends is typically poorer than during weekdays, as neither CME futures nor ETFs are open to trade, so moves thus tend to overreact and substantially retrace once these markets open again, according to Velde.



President-elect Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail to turn the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.” His multiple pledges to the crypto community included launching a national crypto stockpile with the more than $16 billion in bitcoin the U.S. government has amassed through asset seizures, as well as slashing interest rates. The easing of monetary policy typically dovetails with a surge in crypto prices since it makes it cheaper to borrow money.



The Federal Reserve, which guides the country’s monetary policy, sets the benchmark rate. It also, by design, operates independently from the White House. On Thursday, the Fed approved its second consecutive interest rate cut.



On the back of election results and the Fed’s unanimous vote to again slash the benchmark rate, the crypto market broadly surged into the weekend. Ether eclipsed bitcoin’s rise, up 30% in the last seven days, and solana’s market cap topped $100 billion on Sunday.



The total market cap of all spot bitcoin ETFs is now above $80 billion, and in the last three trading days alone, the spot funds collectively added $2.3 billion.



Within fintech, companies tied to crypto were some of the top performers, after candidates funded by the crypto industry won races up and down the ballot.



Coinbase shares jumped 48% for the week, their strongest performance since January 2023. Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors in the election cycle, giving more than $75 million to Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms.



Trump has vowed to oust SEC Chair Gary Gensler, which potentially bodes well for companies like Coinbase fighting the regulator in court over alleged securities offenses.



“Tuesday night was certainly a big night for crypto and the crypto voter,” Coinbase’s chief legal officer Paul Grewal said in an interview. “We’re going to have the most pro-crypto Congress ever, and Coinbase has played some part in all of that.”



Robinhood, which allows users to buy and sell a number of digital currencies, rose 27% for the week. The online brokerage received a Wells Notice from the SEC in May, a move that often precedes formal charges.



Robinhood’s general manager for its crypto unit told CNBC that the goal at Robinhood is to be able to work within the administration.



“If you think about crypto, it’s a very fast-moving pace. It’s complicated, it was made by engineers, for engineers,” said Johann Kerbrat, the Vice President and General Manager of&nbsp;Robinhood&nbsp;Crypto. “We want to help policymakers to understand it and help them drive the right protections for the customers.”

108058955-1730907484716-gettyimages-2182554552-porzycki-elonmusk241106_npRLr

Over $2.8 billion bet on bitcoin topping $90,000 as it hits all-time high

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="573" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-820x573.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-551746" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-820x573.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-768x537.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-1536x1074.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2I5GGBSV3RLKLARXG4AKQ6YF4I-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A municipal worker attempts to unclog a flooded road in Newlands during heavy rains in Cape Town, South Africa, July 9, 2024. REUTERS/Esa Alexander/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Nov 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa is concerned by the impact Donald Trump&#8217;s election as the next president of the United States may have on talks to tackle climate change, its environment minister said on Friday.



Trump&#8217;s election and the collapse of Germany&#8217;s coalition government this week have come right before COP29 talks aimed at curbing global warming, which scientists blame for destructive hurricanes, floods and heatwaves across the world this year.



&#8220;We are concerned about America because we don&#8217;t know what they&#8217;re going to do &#8230; how (it) is going to approach COP,&#8221; South African Environment Minister Dion George told Reuters.



&#8220;Mr. Trump said that he would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, but we don&#8217;t know what will happen,&#8221; George added in a telephone interview on Friday.



International partners are concerned that the prospect of an administration led by Trump, who has called climate change a hoax, will de-motivate poor and middle-income countries who want rich nations to shoulder more of its financial burden.



South Africa, which is one of the world&#8217;s top 15 greenhouse gas emitters and accounts for 30% of the continent&#8217;s emissions, has accepted $11.6 billion from rich nations, mainly in loans, for a switch from coal to renewable energy.



This is seen as a potential model for other &#8216;Global South&#8217; countries who say financing pledges of $100 billion, which took years to come through, are insufficient.



&#8220;It&#8217;s certainly not enough. We need another target,&#8221; George said. &#8220;But then the question is: as the voter base is shifting in developed economies, are they actually going to pay it?&#8221;



The South African minister said he had been reassured by German officials that Europe&#8217;s stance at the COP29 climate talks will not be hurt by Berlin&#8217;s political crisis.



George said that Jennifer Morgan, Germany&#8217;s state secretary for international climate action, had contacted him to say it will be up to the European Union to maintain leadership.



&#8220;Their position is not changed and that is how they will approach COP,&#8221; George said, adding: &#8220;They&#8217;re on Team Europe. The European Union and German have clearly set out their objectives.&#8221;



(Reporting by Tim Cocks; Editing by Alexander Smith)

Cold front in Cape Town

South Africa concerned Trump election will impact climate talks

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-820x461.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-551642" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-820x461.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/104823443-GettyImages-869487498.jpg 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that he will not step down if President-elect Donald Trump asks for his resignation.



When asked whether he would resign if requested to by Trump, the Fed chair simply said: “No.” Powell subsequently told reporters that the president does not have the power to fire or demote him.



“Not permitted under the law,” Powell told reporters at a news conference, after the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. 



Investors will be closely watching the president-elect’s contentious relationship with the Fed chair. Trump appointed Powell in 2017, but repeatedly lashed out against the central bank chief during his first term as president, arguing Powell was not easing monetary policy quickly enough.



Trump said in an October interview that the president should be able to weigh in on interest rate decisions.



“I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to put in comments as to whether the interest rates should go up or down,” Trump told Bloomberg News at the Economic Club of Chicago on Oct. 15.



As Covid-19 swept the nation in March 2020, Trump claimed the authority to remove Powell from office. The Fed chair’s term ends in 2026.



Powell also said Thursday that Trump’s election victory this week will not have any immediate impact on the central bank’s policy.&nbsp;



“In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” Powell told reporters.



The Republican Party also won a majority in the Senate in Tuesday’s election. If the GOP takes the House of Representatives as well, Trump should have an easier path to pass his economic agenda.&nbsp;



Steve Mnuchin, Trump’s former Treasury secretary, said the president-elect will likely focus on cutting taxes and imposing tariffs, particularly on China.  



Powell said the next administration’s policies could have an economic effect that would impact the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.&nbsp;But it is still too early to tell and the Fed is not making any assumptions, Powell said.&nbsp;



“It’s such an early stage,” Powell said. “We don’t know what the policies are, and once we know what they are, we won’t have a sense of when they’ll be implemented,” he said.

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Powell says he would not resign as Fed chief if Trump asked for his resignation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2048" height="1365" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-scaled.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551572" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-scaled.jpeg 2048w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-820x547.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-135x90.jpeg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Pictured here is a construction site of property developer Hongkong Land, in Shanghai on Nov. 4, 2024. Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



BEIJING – China is widely expected to unveil more stimulus on Friday after its parliament ends a five-day meeting.



Authorities here have ramped up stimulus announcements since late September, fueling a stock rally. President Xi Jinping led a meeting on Sept. 26 that called for strengthening fiscal and monetary support, and stopping the real estate market slump.



While the People’s Bank of China has already cut several interest rates, major increases in government debt and spending requires approval by the country’s parliament, called the National People’s Congress.



That approval could be granted at the weeklong meeting of the legislature’s standing committee. During a similar meeting in October of last year, authorities had approved a rare increase in China’s deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.



Analysts expect an increase in the scale of fiscal support after Donald Trump — who has threatened harsh tariffs on Chinese goods — won the U.S. presidential election this week. But some are still cautious, warning that Beijing may remain conservative and not issue direct support to consumers.



When discussing planned fiscal support at a press conference last month, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an emphasized the need to address local government debt problems.



At the parliamentary meeting so far, officials have reviewed a plan to increase the limit on how much debt local governments can issue, according to state media. The additional quota would go toward swapping out local governments’ hidden debt.



Nomura estimates that China has 50 trillion yuan to 60 trillion yuan ($7 trillion to $8.4 trillion) in such hidden debt, and expects Beijing could allow local authorities to increase deb issuance by 10 trillion yuan over the next few years.



That could save local governments 300 billion yuan in interest payments a year, Nomura said.



In recent years, the country’s real estate slump has drastically limited a significant source of local government revenues. Regional authorities have also had to spend on Covid-19 controls during the pandemic.



Even before then, local Chinese government debt had grown to 22% of GDP by the end of 2019, far more than the growth in revenue available to pay that debt, according to an International Monetary Fund report.

108059394-1730955309734-gettyimages-2182206041-fc_1208661

China expected to announce highly anticipated fiscal stimulus package

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551327" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108057984-1730831808377-gettyimages-2176083179-AFP_36JD9UV.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) joins former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally at the site of his first assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5, 2024. Jim Watson | Afp | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



As Donald Trump celebrated his presidential victory early Wednesday morning, Elon Musk was right there with him.



“A star is born. Elon,” Trump said onstage at his Mar-a-Lago resort, thanking the world’s richest person for spending two weeks campaigning in Pennsylvania.



Musk, who poured at least $130 million into a pro-Trump campaign effort, turned Trump support into yet another full-time job in recent months, funding a swing-state operation to register voters and using his social media platform X to constantly tout his preferred candidate, frequently with misinformation.



Musk’s investment in Trump is already paying off, even though Trump doesn’t take office until Jan. 20.



Tesla shares soared 15% on Wednesday, adding roughly $15 billion in paper value to Musk’s net worth. The electric vehicle maker faces headwinds in the global market from China-based competitors, declining European sales and consumers’ growing distaste for his political views.



But with Musk cozying up to Trump, and the president-elect promising to slash the types of regulations that Musk abhors, Wall Street is betting Tesla, on balance, will be a beneficiary.



For Musk, the potential gains go well beyond Tesla.



During his victory speech, Trump also praised Musk’s SpaceX and thanked Musk for delivering Starlink Wi-Fi terminals to Hurricane-stricken parts of the U.S. That all leaves Musk with plenty of reasons to be optimistic that a second Trump administration will pay healthy dividends to him and his businesses.



Musk’s companies are currently embroiled in a range of probes and lawsuits from federal agencies pertaining to matters including alleged securities law violations, workplace safety, labor and civil rights violations, violations of federal environmental laws, consumer fraud and vehicle safety defects.



Given the executive branch’s outsized control over federal regulatory bodies, Musk can look forward to regulators and intelligence agencies winding down some or all of the 19 known ongoing federal investigations and lawsuits against Tesla, SpaceX and X, formerly known as Twitter.



At New York’s Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27, Musk was one of many Trump fans and surrogates to speak during an all-day rally. Much of the coverage of the event focused on comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s bigoted quips, including his description of Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”



Musk was introduced by Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, who called the Tesla CEO the “greatest capitalist” in U.S. history. Lutnick said he and Musk were co-founders of the envisioned “Department of Government Efficiency” and he asked Musk how much he thought could be cut from the federal budget.



Musk answered “at least $2 trillion,” which is more than the federal government’s discretionary budget of $1.7 trillion. The remark received a scream from Lutnick and applause from the crowd.



Musk didn’t specify what he sought to cut, but he previously accused agencies including the SEC, Environmental Protection Agency and Federal Aviation Administration of regulatory overreach or infringing on his free speech rights.



He also accused the Biden administration of hiring too many IRS personnel, and has vocally objected to a so-called billionaires tax.



Having a role in a bespoke commission could give Musk power over federal agencies’ budgets, staffing and the ability to push for the elimination of inconvenient regulations.



Musk also said during a Tesla earnings call on Oct. 23, that he intended to use his sway with Trump to establish a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.” Currently, approvals happen at the state level.



Tesla has been working on driverless technology for more than a decade but hasn’t yet produced a robotaxi or vehicle safe to use without a human ready to steer or brake at any time.



Additionally, a Trump administration may agree to ramp up the government’s work with his companies.



Musk’s newest startup, xAI, is developing large language models and generative artificial intelligence software that aims to compete with similar products from Microsoft-backed OpenAI, Meta and others.&nbsp;



Meta recently announced its open-source Llama models were available to U.S. government agencies in the areas of defense and national security. And OpenAI is already working with the U.S. military after adding a retired U.S. Army general and former director of the National Security Agency to its board in June.



Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-spacex-s-billions-in-federal-contracts">SpaceX’s billions in federal contracts</h2>



According to research on federal spending and prime contracts by FedScout, SpaceX has received more than $19 billion from contracts with the federal government since 2008, including from NASA, the U.S. Air Force and Space Force.



The company is on track to take in several billions of dollars annually from prime contracts with the federal government for years to come, according to FedScout CEO Geoff Orazem.



That number doesn’t include classified spending, smaller items like Starlink terminals, or spending that’s done at the state level via block grants from the federal government, like when the Federal Emergency Management Agency gives states assistance to help recover from natural disasters.



Meanwhile, Tesla has reported around $10 billion in sales of “automotive regulatory credits,” or environmental credits, since 2015, Orazem found by evaluating the company’s financial filings.



These incentives are largely derived from federal and state regulations in the U.S. that require automakers to sell some number of low-emission vehicles or buy credits from companies like Tesla, which often have an excess.



Regulatory credits were about 60% of Tesla’s net income in the second quarter of 2024, and 39% in the third quarter. Other government rebates on EV sales represented about 50% of Tesla’s third-quarter profit.



Trump hasn’t made clear whether he’ll maintain those rebates and regulatory credit programs. He previously said he may cut the federal $7,500 EV tax credit.



Additionally, Trump has promised to slash income taxes and to implement steep tariffs. While tariffs&nbsp;could help protect Tesla from Chinese competitors, such a move could involve significant disruption to Tesla’s automotive supply chain, which relies on some materials and parts from China.



When it comes to worker protections, Musk has been seeking to strike down the constitutional authority of the National Labor Relations Board through litigation. He may find such lawsuits are no longer needed if Trump is willing to eliminate or reduce the power of the agency, which is supposed to ensure that companies follow federal laws allowing workers to form unions and engage in collective bargaining with their employers.



Then there’s Musk’s involvement with sanctioned governments.



At SpaceX, Musk has withheld the use of Starlink, the company’s satellite internet service, over Taiwan, even for U.S. troops based there. The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk cut off access as a favor requested by Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly on behalf of Chinese President Xi Jinping during a series of ongoing, frequent talks between the two men.



In response to the reports, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said if they were true, Musk’s conversations with Putin should be be federally investigated.



According to analysis by NBC News, Musk has repeatedly posted pro-Kremlin content to his hundreds of millions of followers on X. He even engaged with content from Tenet Media and its creators at least 60 times on the social network. Tenet was at the center of an alleged Russian covert operation to manipulate U.S. public opinion ahead of the 2024 election, according to the Department of Justice. 



While Vice President-elect JD Vance recently called Putin a U.S. adversary, Trump has frequently spoken of his affection for the Russian president, even since Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Kremlin officials have celebrated Trump’s victory in this week’s election.



Musk, who publicly endorsed Trump moments after the first assassination attempt on the former president in July, has said he intends to remain involved in U.S. politics for the long haul.



He said in a discussion on X on Tuesday that his super PAC would continue its work after the presidential election and would seek to influence the outcomes of midterms, intermediate elections and elections of local prosecutors across the U.S.



A priority, Musk said, would be to help elect district attorneys “who prosecute repeat violent criminals who are obviously a danger to people.”

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How Elon Musk stands to cash in on Trump’s presidential victory

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-551324" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/108058872-1730902372279-gettyimages-1197718058-jm1_4964.jpeg 1858w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A man holds an American flag depicting president-elect Donald Trump at Parliament Square in London in 2020. Jeff J Mitchell | Getty Images News | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. holds dear to its so-called “special relationship” with the U.S., priding itself on a long history of shared values and cultural, diplomatic, linguistic and commercial ties with the States.



London feels those long-standing bonds and geopolitical interests make its relationship with the U.S., well, special.



Whether that feeling of exceptionalism and unique closeness is appreciate or felt as keenly across the Atlantic has always been a bone of contention for London, however, and the bond between the U.S. and U.K. could be tested further when Donald Trump returns to the White House following his election win.



In the run-up to the vote, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer had looked to strengthen the relationship with Trump, checking in on the Republican leader after an assassination attempt against him, and traveling to New York with Foreign Secretary David Lammy to dine with him at Trump Tower in September.



Congratulating the president-elect on his decisive win, Starmer posted on X that he looked forward to a collaborative partnership with Trump



“As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise,” he commented, adding, “From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the U.K.-U.S. special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.”



Still, Starmer might have some groveling to do with a new Trump administration.



Tensions flared last month when Trump’s campaign team in October accused the Labour Party of “blatant foreign interference” in the presidential election after party activists travelled to the U.S. to help Harris’ campaign. Starmer and the party denied the accusations.



There’s no doubt that the leaders are cut from different cloths — the brash and unpredictable character of businessman-turned-politician Trump is a far cry from the more measured style of the former human rights lawyer who once took on big business in high-profile court cases.



Addressing British lawmakers on Wednesday, Starmer reacted to Trump’s win by reaffirming his commitment to good relations with the U.S., stating “it is absolutely crucial that we have a strong relationship, that strong special relationship forged in difficult circumstances, between the U.S. and the U.K.”



But Kemi Badenoch, the new leader of Britain’s opposition Conservative Party, which is more ideologically aligned with the Republicans, goaded Starmer over past criticism of Trump by the current Labour foreign minister who, in 2018, called Trump a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” and a “profound threat to the international order” in a magazine article. Lammy has since said he would work with Trump and would look to persuade the infamously NATO-skeptic Republican to remain in the military alliance.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-uk-can-lie-low"><a></a>The UK can lie low</h2>



Economists say Britain should not expect any special treatment when a new Trump administration comes into force, but they note it’s unlikely the U.K would be a prime target for punitive policies, such as import tariffs, that could be levied on the European Union and China as Trump looks to boost America’s growth and competitiveness.



Trump has already threatened to revive a trade war that began during his first term in office, stating in his election campaign that he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods by 60-100%, and would impose a blanket 10% tariff (or potentially 20%) on all U.S. imports, a move opening up a new front in trade tensions with two of its largest trading partners, the EU and China. The U.K., now outside the European bloc, might find its post-Brexit position an advantage.



“The U.K. is, quite frankly, probably small enough to be off the radar,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, told CNBC after Trump’s election win.



“We’re not part of the EU anymore. China and the EU are the big two [that will be targeted by Trump]. We won’t come into any issues around NATO commitments, because we meet our own. Whereas with Europe, Trump could conceivably say, ‘we’ll threaten you with a trade war, but if you increase your military spend and meet your NATO commitments, we’ll not put tariffs on,’” Pickering said, noting that “Trump likes to trade everything off.”



While “Starmer may have offended Trump at some point, or David Lammy might have offended America,” Pickering noted that “these are relatively small potatoes versus Trump’s issues with Europe and NATO or China containment. So I think with a bit of careful diplomacy, the U.K. and the U.S. can get on good terms quickly,” he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Not so special anymore</h2>



Describing the “special relationship” as one of convenience for the U.S., Pickering said the U.K. could still maneuver itself to be useful to an incoming Trump government.



“The key thing for the U.K. is, can it reassert itself as this mid-Atlantic broker between America and Europe now that it’s outside of the EU? This was always the U.K.’s advantage — to be the English speaking common-law, American partner within the European Union, and by brokering that relationship, that allowed us to punch above our weight diplomatically.”



Whisper it, but the “special relationship” ceased to be special long ago, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.



“Apart from strong cooperation on intelligence gathering and few military aspects, all recent U.S. administrations have treated the U.K. as a normal mid-size European country,” Schmieding told CNBC Wednesday.



“That Trump and Starmer are apparently not fans of each other, to put it mildly, will not help in future U.S.-U.K. talks. But it is not the decisive factor, largely because for the U.S. will probably not be inclined to give any special treatment to any country in Europe,” he said.



Schmieding said it’s advisable for the U.K. to coordinate its response to Trump with its European neighbors, notably on how to react if Trump cuts U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as expected, meaning Europe is on the hook for the funding gap left by Ukraine’s strongest ally since Russia invaded in February 2022.



Although the picture has improved since Trump was last in office, from 2017 to 2021, the president-elect is likely to continue to harangue European members of NATO to increase their defense spending, a perennial bugbear for Trump.



NATO members committed in 2014 to spending 2% of their national gross domestic product on defense but laggards remain, including Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Spain and Canada. Even the Netherlands, whose former leader Mark Rutte is now NATO chief, has failed to meet the spending pledge.



After being elected to office in July, Starmer made a “cast-iron commitment” to raise U.K. defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, but has refused to give a timetable for the increase. Still, the U.K. is in Trump’s good books when it comes to defense spend, with its expenditure in the arena standing at 2.3% of GDP in 2023, NATO figures show. The U.S. spent 3.2%, making it the second-largest spender after Poland, at 3.9%.



Trump rattled NATO members in February when he said he would not provide military protection to any member state that had not met its financial obligations to the bloc, and would even “encourage” adversaries “to do whatever the hell they want” to that nation.

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IMF urged to cash in on gold price to help poor countries hit by climate change

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WTO may seek to reappoint chief ahead of Trump presidency

Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say

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Bitcoin is closing in on $90,000 for the first time ever

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Main Ghana opposition leader tipped to win presidential vote, poll shows

Over $2.8 billion bet on bitcoin topping $90,000 as it hits all-time high

South Africa concerned Trump election will impact climate talks

Powell says he would not resign as Fed chief if Trump asked for his resignation

China expected to announce highly anticipated fiscal stimulus package

How Elon Musk stands to cash in on Trump’s presidential victory

Britain loves its ‘special relationship’ with the U.S. — but that doesn’t mean Trump will love it back

News Tips

Advertise With Us

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