Real threat of oil supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="548" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-820x548.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537523" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-820x548.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-768x513.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-1536x1026.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/IFNY65FOTJO4XHZDYY2W2UMXWQ-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A motorist drives on the Nairobi Expressway undertaken by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, in Nairobi, Kenya May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 2 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;s economy expanded by 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.6% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the national statistics office said on Wednesday.



The second quarter of 2023 gross domestic product data was revised upward from a previous figure of 5.0%.



The Kenyan statistics office attributed second-quarter growth to the robust performance of sectors including agriculture, forestry &amp; fishing, real estate, financial and insurance activities, and wholesale and retail.



However, the mining, quarrying and construction sectors saw a contraction, the statistics office said in its statement.



Kenya&#8217;s finance ministry has projected a 5.2% economic growth for 2024, a slight decrease from 5.6% in the previous year.



At the end of the second&nbsp;quarter, nationwide protests against proposed tax increases resulted in disruption and violence in major cities.



President William Ruto subsequently scrapped the tax measures, but demonstrations persisted into the third quarter, with protesters calling for better governance, an end to corruption and better service delivery.



(Reporting by George Obulutsa; Editing by Louise Heavens and Bate Felix)

Shadow of Kenya’s borrowing binge to hang over next president

Kenya’s economic growth slows in the second quarter of 2024

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537520" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/TMSNKUJWFBJW7E2ELN3LY74EOY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Mozambique President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi addresses the &#8220;Summit of the Future&#8221; in the General Assembly Hall of the United Nations Headquarters in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2024. REUTERS/Caitlin Ochs/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 2 (Reuters) &#8211; Mozambicans will vote next week in presidential and legislative elections that are almost certain to extend the ruling Frelimo party&#8217;s half century in power, as it battles a long-running Islamist insurgency in one of Africa&#8217;s largest gas fields.



Ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo, a former radio announcer and law lecturer, is widely expected to replace Filipe Nyusi as president of the southeast African nation.



Here are some key issues facing one of the world&#8217;s poorest countries and its more than 34 million people as it heads to polls.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-islamist-insurgency">ISLAMIST INSURGENCY</h2>



Islamic State-linked militants launched an insurgency in the northern gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado in 2017, killing thousands of civilians, destroying livelihoods and internally displacing hundreds of thousands, aid agencies say. The insurgency has disrupted multi-billion-dollar energy projects.



Aided by regional troops and Rwanda, the government has contained the insurgency, but there has been a surge in deadly attacks since the start of the year.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-stalled-gas-projects">STALLED GAS PROJECTS</h2>



Before the wave of insurgent attacks, gas projects worth over $50 billion were earmarked for development. The projects were aimed at turning the country into a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer.



French energy giant TotalEnergies halted work on its $20 billion LNG project and declared force majeure in 2021 after insurgents attacked the northern town of Palma, a logistics hub near the site.



Its Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanné said in July the company hoped to chart a path to restart its LNG plant after the presidential election.



Another LNG project led by Exxon Mobil and its partner Eni was also delayed. Exxon expects a final investment decision by the end of 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-debt-scandal">DEBT SCANDAL</h2>



Mozambique is still reeling from a $1.5 billion-plus &#8220;tuna bond&#8221; scandal in which money lent to state-run firms for fishing fleets, funded in part by Credit Suisse, went missing.



Last year Credit Suisse, now owned by UBS reached an out of court settlement with Mozambique over the decade-old scandal, which prompted the International Monetary Fund and other donors to temporarily cut off support to the country, triggering a currency collapse and debt default.



Mozambique maintained that it was the victim of a conspiracy among shipbuilders, corrupt officials and banks. President Nyusi, who was defense minister at the time, denied any wrongdoing.



The scandal triggered criminal investigations from Maputo to New York, while senior Frelimo politicians were charged for their involvement, dealing a blow to the party&#8217;s image.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-climate-shocks">CLIMATE SHOCKS</h2>



Mozambique is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, vulnerable to extreme climate shocks like droughts, cyclones and floods.



An El-Nino induced drought has ravaged southern African countries, wiping out crops, including in Mozambique. Around 1.8 million people have been affected by the drought in central and southern parts of the country, the United Nations Mozambique said in August.



Devastating cyclones also regularly hit Mozambique. Along with neighbouring Malawi and Madagascar, Mozambique bore the brunt of Cyclone Freddy last year, when the storm &#8211; one of the deadliest to hit the continent in two decades &#8211; ripped through the region, killing over 1,000 people.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-peace-agreement">PEACE AGREEMENT</h2>



Frelimo has been in power since Mozambique&#8217;s independence in 1975.



Shortly after independence, a 16-year civil war between Frelimo and former guerilla movement Renamo &#8211; now the country&#8217;s main opposition &#8211; killed around 1 million people before a truce in 1992 ended the worst of the bloodshed.



However, violence has flared up periodically, around elections.



In a bid to bring &#8220;definitive peace&#8221;, the two parties signed the Maputo Accord for Peace and National Reconciliation shortly before the elections in 2019 to end years of conflict.



Over 5,000 former combatants gave up arms and have been reintegrated into society since.



(Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Tim Cocks and Michael Perry)

World leaders attend United Nations “Summit of the Future”, in New York

What are the key issues in Mozambique elections?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-510212" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-1604532392-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker at a foreign exchange currency bureau counts 1000 Ugandan shilling banknotes in Kampala, Uganda, on Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023. Uganda&#8217;s central bank said it stands ready to act if the World Bank&#8217;s decision to halt new funding over the country&#8217;s passage of anti-LGBTQ legislation impacts the currency further. Photographer: Luke Dray/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 2 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling was little-changed on Wednesday, but was expected to weaken, undercut by an uptick in demand for dollars from the energy and manufacturing sectors, traders said.



At 0739 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,671/3,681, compared with Tuesday&#8217;s closing rate of 3,665/3,675.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by George Obulutsa)

Ugandan Economy Following Rate Cut

Ugandan shilling stable, to ease due to energy sector FX demand

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="425" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-498541" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24.jpg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-300x177.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24-152x90.jpg 152w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Kenya shilling coins and notes are pictured inside a cashier&#8217;s booth at a forex exchange bureau in Kenya&#8217;s capital Nairobi, April 20, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 2 (Reuters) &#8211; Kenya&#8217;s shilling was steady on Wednesday, and was expected to firm, helped by dollar inflows from tea exporters, traders said.



At 0633 GMT, the shilling traded at 128.50/129.50 per dollar, the same as Tuesday&#8217;s closing rate.



(Reporting by Sonia Rao; Editing by George Obulutsa)

ANCK25OQIFMHTJYACOM5XU5T24

Kenyan shilling steady, to gain due to tea export dollar inflows

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="720" height="480" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/K2XDS6QNTRJ3NESUKLUN7X52ZI.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537498" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/K2XDS6QNTRJ3NESUKLUN7X52ZI.jpg 720w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/K2XDS6QNTRJ3NESUKLUN7X52ZI-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/K2XDS6QNTRJ3NESUKLUN7X52ZI-135x90.jpg 135w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">An employe holds loaves of bread at a supermarket in Nairobi, Kenya May 8, 2017. REUTERS/Baz Ratner/File photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 2 (Reuters) &#8211; Kenya&#8217;s inflation fell to 3.6% year-on-year in September from 4.4% a month earlier, the statistics office said on Wednesday.



On a month-on-month basis inflation was at 0.2% from 0.0% a month earlier, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.



The Kenyan government targets an inflation rate of between 2.5% and 7.5% in the medium term.



The central bank is due to announce its next interest rate decision on Oct. 8.



It cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points in August, saying there was scope to ease policy gradually as inflation had fallen below the midpoint of its target range.



(Reporting by George Obulutsa; Editing by Tom Hogue)

K2XDS6QNTRJ3NESUKLUN7X52ZI

Kenya’s inflation falls to 3.6% in Sept

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="573" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-820x573.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537495" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-820x573.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-300x210.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-768x537.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-1536x1074.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/VRATGRWGYVJ5ZNVGMF3E7MIYPQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ugandan Minister of Energy and Mineral Development Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu gestures during an Interview at the African Energy Week in Cape Town, South Africa, October 17, 2023. REUTERS/Esa Alexander</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 2 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Uganda has formed a state-owned mining company to manage the government&#8217;s equity interests in mining operations, its minister for energy and mineral development, Ruth Nankabirwa, said.



All mining activities in the east African country have previously been done by private firms after obtaining exploration and mining licenses.



Under a new mining law approved in 2022, the government can compulsorily take a 15% free carry stake in all mining operations in the country.



The move is part of broader efforts to expand Uganda&#8217;s share of the value from its mineral wealth, following in the footsteps of other African countries such as Tanzania.



&#8220;This company will manage the state&#8217;s commercial interests in the mining industry. It will do so through strategic partnerships with young developers in the private sector,&#8221; Nankabirwa told a mining conference in Kampala on Tuesday.



President Yoweri Museveni&#8217;s government has also been pushing investors in the sector to process minerals and add value domestically instead of exporting them in raw form.



In April, Uganda launched its first tin refining company by mining firm Woodcross resources, which refines tin ore to 99.9% purity.



Chinese-backed Sunbird Resources has also been licensed to mine limestone for cement production in Karamoja region in Uganda&#8217;s northeast region, while Australia&#8217;s Ionic Rare Earths IXR.AX has been licensed to mine and process rare earths.



Ugandan geologists say the country has large deposits of a range of minerals including gold, cobalt, copper, iron ore, rare earths, among others.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by George Obulutsa and Rashmi Aich)

Interview with Ugandan Minister of Energy and Mineral Development Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu at the African Energy Week in Cape Town

Uganda sets up state-owned firm to take stakes in mining operations

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA.jpg 800w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-300x205.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-132x90.jpg 132w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TJORLERHRFO4NIRPMFSZ32CFMA-768x525.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East.



Iran on Tuesday launched the strike on Israel in retaliation for its recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander in Lebanon.



Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC.



“The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply,” said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. “The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent.”



These latest developments could be a gamechanger, after a prolonged period of “geopolitical risk fatigue” during which traders brushed off threats of oil supply disruptions stemming from the situation in the Middle East as well as Ukraine, he said.



Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.



Iran’s latest missile attack followed Israel’s deployment of ground troops into southern Lebanon, intensifying its offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Most of the 200 missiles launched were intercepted by Israeli and U.S. defenses, and there were no reported fatalities in Israel as a result of the attack.



The attack came on the heels of Israel’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Oil prices gained over 5% in the previous session following the missile strike, before tapering to a 2% climb. Global benchmark Brent is now trading 1.44% higher at $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.62% to $70.95 per barrel.



Since the armed Israel-Hamas conflict started Oct. 7 of last year, disruptions to the oil market has been limited. The oil market also remains under pressure as increased production from the U.S. add to the supply picture, and sputtering Chinese demand have depressed prices, said Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates.



Iran is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, producing almost four million barrels of oil per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-new-phase-of-the-war"><a></a>New phase of the war?</h2>



Other analysts echoed Kavonic’s warning.



“As Israel turns from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran, the war is entering a new and more energy-related phase,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC, adding that he expects Israel’s retaliation for the missile attack to be “disproportionately large.”



“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.



Ross Schaap, head of research at GeoQuant, which leverages structural and high-frequency data to generate political risk scores, said that the organization’s risk analysis model of the Israel-Iran conflict, which has remained in three standard deviations of the average trend over the past 12 years, saw a significant spike after the latest missile strikes.



These results indicate that “much bigger events” are expected, said Schaap said.



Josh Young, CIO of Bison Interests, who is similarly observing an increasing likelihood of a potential strike on Iranian oil infrastructure oil supply disruption,&nbsp;said that this marks a “significant escalation” by Iran.



Should Iranian exports go offline due to an attack, Young predicts that oil prices will surge to more than $100 per barrel.

FILE PHOTO: An oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk, Russia

Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/16/trump-iran-kill-plot-secret-service.html">Iran</a>&nbsp;on Tuesday launched a ballistic missile attack on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/we-have-much-more-on-the-way-if-they-will-continue-israels-president-warns-hezbollah.html">Israel</a>&nbsp;in retaliation for its recent killing of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/29/israel-pounds-lebanon-pressuring-hezbollah-after-killing-its-leader.html">Hezbollah</a>&nbsp;leader&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/28/hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-killed-in-strike-israeli-army-says.html">Hassan Nasrallah</a>&nbsp;and an Iranian commander in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>.



The attack came on the heels of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/30/israeli-military-says-limited-operation-against-hezbollah-targets-in-southern-lebanon-has-begun.html">Israel</a>’s deployment of ground forces into south Lebanon, escalating its offensive on Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran.



“In response to the martyrdom of Martyr Haniyeh, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Martyr Nilforoushan, we have targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/irans-revolutionary-guards" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps</a>&nbsp;said in a statement after missiles began appearing in the skies over Israel.



“Should the Zionist regime respond to Iran’s operation, it will face crushing attack,” said the IRGC, Iran’s paramilitary organization.



Abbas Nilforoushan was an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander, who was killed with Nasrallah in a bombing by Israel last Friday in Beirut, Lebanon.



<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/iran-says-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-was-assassinated-in-tehran.html">Ismail Haniyeh</a>&nbsp;was the political commander of the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/hamas-new-political-leader-yahya-sinwar-is-seen-as-more-extreme.html">Hamas</a>&nbsp;terror group, who was killed in July by an Israeli strike on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Israel has been engaged in a brutal war on Hamas since the group launched the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel from Gaza.



There were only two people reported lightly injured from shrapnel from the missile attack in the Tel Aviv area, according to Israeli authorities. There were also some minor injuries reported across Israel involving people moving to safe spaces.



The Israel Defense Forces announced that citizens were allowed to leave protected spaces across the country just after 1:30 p.m. ET.



A White House official on Tuesday warned that any direct attack on Israel by Iran “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”



“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” the official said.



That official and a Defense Department official said that Iran was expected to target military and government sites, not civilian locations.



Sirens wailed around Israel during Tuesday’s attack.



President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/joe-biden/">Joe Biden</a>&nbsp;met Tuesday afternoon with Vice President&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/kamala-harris/">Kamala Harris</a>&nbsp;and national security officials to discuss the attack, the White House said.



“They reviewed the status of U.S. preparations to help Israel defend against attacks and protect U.S. personnel,” White House senior deputy press secretary Emilie Simons said in a post on the social media site X.



<a href="https://il.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-jerusalem-26/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem</a>&nbsp;directed all U.S. government employees and their families in Israel to “shelter in place until further notice.”



The embassy in the same notice said it “reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents, including mortar and rocket fire and unmanned aircraft system UAS intrusions, often take place without warning.”



“The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events,” the notice said.



Iran’s suspected planned attack came a day after Israeli ground forces crossed into south&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/israeli-forces-launch-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-as-markets-eye-escalation-.html">Lebanon</a>&nbsp;as part of an attack on Hezbollah.



The number of Israeli troops who have entered Lebanon is in “the low hundreds,” an Israeli official told NBC News.



Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said the killing of Nasrallah and a senior Revolutionary Guards commander in that attack “will not go unanswered.” Araghchi said the United States was “complicit in this crime.”



The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI/">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>&nbsp;fell more than 250 points by 10 a.m. ET, spurred by a surge in the cost of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/crude-oil-prices-today.html">West Texas Intermediate crude oil</a>, on fears of heightened tensions in the petroleum-rich Middle East.



The WTI November contract was up nearly 3% by midmorning, hovering shy of $70 a barrel.



In April, Iran launched an attack on Israel that included more than 300 drones and ballistic missiles after two top Iranian commanders were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Syria.



Most of the missiles and drones were shot down by the Israeli and U.S. militaries.

108041641-1727803778574-gettyimages-2175285671-AFP_36HV2BQ

Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="519" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-820x519.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537208" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-820x519.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-300x190.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-768x486.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-1536x971.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SDJY6Y7BEFPCJLFSC2IBAROQ24-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Kenya&#8217;s incoming deputy President Rigathi Gachagua waves to supporters as he arrives for his swearing-in ceremony in Nairobi, Kenya September 13, 2022. REUTERS/Monicah Mwangi/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Kenya&#8217;sparliament on&nbsp;Tuesday tabled a motion to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for gross violation of the constitution, the&nbsp;speaker said,&nbsp;as local media reported that he had fallen out with President William Ruto.



Over one third of lawmakers signed a motion presented by Mwengi Mutuse, an MP allied with Ruto&#8217;s coalition, that accuses Gachagua of, among other things, denying people &#8220;equal opportunities for public service appointments and allocation of public resources,&#8221; according to the document.



A rift between Ruto and Gachagua has spilt into the open in recent days, with Gachagua saying he has been sidelined while denying accusations linking him and associates to violent protests earlier in the year, in which demonstrators overran parliament.



The director of communications at Gachagua&#8217;s office did not immediately respond to Reuters&#8217; request for comment.



&#8220;A special motion before the House presents an unprecedented constitutional moment in our democracy,&#8221; said parliamentary speaker Moses Wetang&#8217;ula.



&#8220;Without doubt, it summons this house to test for the first time, under the 2010 constitution, the provisions of our constitution relating to the removal from office by impeachment of the deputy president.&#8221;



(Reporting by Hereward Holland; Editing by Bate Felix and Sharon Singleton)

FILE PHOTO: Kenya’s in-coming deputy President Rigathi Gachagua waves to supporters as he arrives for his swearing-in ceremony in Nairobi

Kenya’s parliament tables motion to impeach deputy president, speaker says

How Investors Can Play The Stock Market Ahead Of The 2024 Election

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-529685" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/TE3RFSDQENJTFFYC6SW6PIPCBE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, U.S., April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Major shareholders at the International Monetary Fund are urging Kenya to request an IMF assessment of corruption and governance issues as part of a push to unlock lending that has been stalled by the shelving of tax hikes, two diplomatic sources said.



Disbursement of around $600 million under an IMF plan that expires next year has been held up since the Kenyan government in June withdrew $2.7 billion in tax increases in response to mass protests.



The demonstrations, in which more than 50 people were killed, brought to the fore issues of corruption and misgovernance, with young protesters complaining that their taxes were being used to fund politicans&#8217; lavish lifestyles.



Western governments have been encouraging a governance diagnostic, or IMF assessment, of corruption and governance vulnerabilities, said the two sources. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.



A governance diagnostic must be requested by the country in question. One source said such a request would facilitate discussions about further IMF support.



Kenya&#8217;s finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Spokespeople at the Washington-based IMF did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



The IMF has published governance diagnostic reports on 14 countries since 2014, including Ukraine, Cameroon and Sri Lanka, and additional diagnostics are underway, according to the Fund&#8217;s website.



Kenyan authorities are looking for fresh revenue-raising measures after rescinding the tax increases.



Finance Minister John Mbadi said in August that the government would have to restore some measures from the scrapped bill. However, last month Mbadi said he would seek suggestions from the public on new legislation to boost revenue.



Diplomatic sources say the government will need to present a credible plan to narrow its fiscal deficit before the IMF will consider new disbursements.



(Reporting by Aaron Ross; Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker in London; Editing by Gareth Jones)

FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington

Western nations urge Kenya to seek IMF review of corruption issues, sources say

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-524644" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/UGANDA-SHILLING-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Uganda shillings. Uganda. (Photo by: Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>



KAMPALA, Oct 1 (Reuters) &#8211; The Ugandan shilling posted gains on Tuesday, helped by dollar inflows from non-governmental organisations, traders said.



At 0915 GMT, commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,663/3,673, stronger than Monday&#8217;s closing rate of 3,682/3,692.



(Reporting by Elias Biryabarema; Editing by George Obulutsa)

UGANDA SHILLING

Uganda shilling firms; charity dollar inflows help

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="572" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-820x572.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-532434" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-820x572.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-768x535.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-1536x1071.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/PHZVFDZVK5KOFC5CAW3CU3SPAI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A vendor shows a ten Zimbabwe gold-backed (ZiG) note along a street in Harare, Zimbabwe, July 17, 2024. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo</figcaption></figure>



HARARE, Oct 1 (Reuters) &#8211; Zimbabwe&#8217;s bankers on Tuesday warned the central bank about the impact of any future shocks to the local currency to avoid eating into people&#8217;s incomes and eroding public confidence after a 43% devaluation last week.



&#8220;Every time you have such big shocks there are people who will lose out. The proper thing is to avoid significant huge shocks and maybe have small movement in the rate going forward,&#8221; Bankers Association of Zimbabwe (BAZ) president Lawrence Nyazema told Reuters.



The ZiG, which stands for Zimbabwe Gold, is the southern African country&#8217;s sixth attempt at a stable currency in 15 years after a bout of hyperinflation under former longtime leader Robert Mugabe.



But authorities have struggled to persuade a sceptical population to stop carrying out transactions in foreign currencies.



The ZiG&#8217;s devaluation comes follows it losing more than 47% on the black market in the five months after its launch, with some economists saying its death was imminent.



Nyazema said it was too early to call the demise of the new unit, describing last week&#8217;s move by the central bank as a &#8220;reset&#8221; to the economy.



&#8220;I don&#8217;t think we are seeing the death of the currency but we have our work cut out for us. We have to do more work in terms of convincing the citizens that the money is stable. We needed to reset, and now that we have reset we need to stick to our promises,&#8221; Nyazema said.



He added: &#8220;It is up to the monetary authorities to come up with the right set of measures to bring stability and make sure that such significant movements are not frequent.&#8221;



Since the devaluation, the ZiG has further slipped from Friday&#8217;s rate of 24.3902 to 25.1305 on Tuesday.



Bankers also warned against a rushed move to remove the U.S dollar from circulation before a 2030 deadline, saying it sent the wrong signal to investors.



&#8220;If we were to wake up tomorrow morning and say we are back to mono currency there is likely going to be confusion not only internally but the rest of the world, whom we have told we will have a multi currency up to 2030,&#8221; Nyazema said.



Before the ZiG began its big slide, the government had been hoping to make the gold-backed currency the sole currency unit by 2026.



(Reporting by Nyasha Chingono, editing Nelson Banya and Hugh Lawson)

A vendor shows a ten Zimbabwe gold-backed (ZiG) note along a street in Harare

Zimbabwe bankers wary of more shocks after sharp ZiG devaluation

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="571" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-820x571.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-537121" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-820x571.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-300x209.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-129x90.jpg 129w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-768x535.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-1536x1070.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/YHI73VDPHRLJBFOJQ5AW7JVA5U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A view shows an enrichment shop at a processing plant of fertilizer producer EuroChem VolgaKaliy developing the Gremyachinskoe potash deposit in Volgograd region, Russia September 3, 2024. REUTERS/Kirill Braga/File photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South African manufacturing activity increased in September, recovering from the previous month&#8217;s slump as demand rose and an interest rate cut boosted sentiment, the Absa-sponsored purchasing managers&#8217; index survey showed on Tuesday.



Absa&#8217;s seasonally adjusted PMI for the factory sector rose to 52.8 points in September from 43.6 in August, above the 50-point mark that shows growth.



&#8220;Both domestic and export demand showed signs of improvement&#8230; On the local consumer front, the recent interest rate cut adds to the expectation of a possible more positive demand story going forward,&#8221; local bank Absa, which sponsors the survey, said in a statement.



&#8220;The positive PMI results suggest that the manufacturing sector is stabilising after a turbulent period, although challenges remain, particularly in employment,&#8221; Absa said in a statement.



The 9.2-point jump in the index in September more than made up for the 8.8-point drop in August.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders; Editing by Bhargav Acharya and Hugh Lawson)

EuroChem VolgaKaliy plant in Volgograd region

Absa PMI shows South African factory activity grew in September

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="576" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-820x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-534754" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-820x576.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-300x211.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-128x90.jpg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-768x540.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-1536x1079.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LA24V6GG4VKUROZCEGVVO63DKQ-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A street money changer counts South African Rands in Harare, Zimbabwe, file. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Oct 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The South African rand weakened in early trade on Tuesday, ahead of a purchasing managers&#8217; index (PMI) for the domestic manufacturing sector.



At 0747 GMT, the rand traded at 17.32 against the dollar, about 0.3% softer than its previous close.



The Absa PMI for September is set to be released at 0900 GMT and should shed light on conditions in South Africa&#8217;s manufacturing sector.



On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index traded about 0.6% up.



South Africa&#8217;s benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker in early deals, with the yield up 8 basis points to 8.925%.



(Reporting by Tannur Anders)

FILE PHOTO: A street money changer counts South African Rands in Harare

South African rand slips ahead of manufacturing PMI

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="429" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LYEEWJTJKRPK3GJPCKWFP3EK7E-820x429-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-534014" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LYEEWJTJKRPK3GJPCKWFP3EK7E-820x429-1.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LYEEWJTJKRPK3GJPCKWFP3EK7E-820x429-1-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LYEEWJTJKRPK3GJPCKWFP3EK7E-820x429-1-160x84.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/LYEEWJTJKRPK3GJPCKWFP3EK7E-820x429-1-768x402.jpg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A teller counts Kenya shilling notes inside the cashier’s booth at a forex exchange bureau in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, April 20, 2016. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



NAIROBI, Oct 1 (Reuters) &#8211; Kenya&#8217;s shilling was unchanged against the dollar on Tuesday and was expected to gain ground during the session, helped by inflows from the agriculture sector, traders said.



At 0633 GMT, the shilling traded at 128.50/129.50 per dollar, the same as Monday&#8217;s closing rate.



(Reporting by Sonia Rao; Editing by George Obulutsa)

home

Real threat of oil supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

Kenya’s economic growth slows in the second quarter of 2024

What are the key issues in Mozambique elections?

Ugandan shilling stable, to ease due to energy sector FX demand

Kenyan shilling steady, to gain due to tea export dollar inflows

Kenya’s inflation falls to 3.6% in Sept

Uganda sets up state-owned firm to take stakes in mining operations

Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

Kenya’s parliament tables motion to impeach deputy president, speaker says

How Investors Can Play The Stock Market Ahead Of The 2024 Election

Western nations urge Kenya to seek IMF review of corruption issues, sources say

Uganda shilling firms; charity dollar inflows help

Zimbabwe bankers wary of more shocks after sharp ZiG devaluation

Absa PMI shows South African factory activity grew in September

South African rand slips ahead of manufacturing PMI

Kenya shilling stable; to strengthen due to farm sector dollar inflows

News Tips

Advertise With Us

home

Real threat of oil supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

Kenya’s economic growth slows in the second quarter of 2024

What are the key issues in Mozambique elections?

Ugandan shilling stable, to ease due to energy sector FX demand

Kenyan shilling steady, to gain due to tea export dollar inflows

Kenya’s inflation falls to 3.6% in Sept

Uganda sets up state-owned firm to take stakes in mining operations

Oil watchers now see a real threat of supply disruptions after latest Iran-Israel escalation

Iran launches missile attack on Israel for killing of Hezbollah leader, general

Kenya’s parliament tables motion to impeach deputy president, speaker says

How Investors Can Play The Stock Market Ahead Of The 2024 Election

Western nations urge Kenya to seek IMF review of corruption issues, sources say

Uganda shilling firms; charity dollar inflows help

Zimbabwe bankers wary of more shocks after sharp ZiG devaluation

Absa PMI shows South African factory activity grew in September

South African rand slips ahead of manufacturing PMI

Kenya shilling stable; to strengthen due to farm sector dollar inflows

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Newsletters