How strong is the cabinet reshuffle resistance?

In the wake of President Zuma's recent cabinet reshuffle, speculation and analysis abound regarding the strength of the resistance to this move. Political analyst Steven Friedman weighed in on the matter, pointing out that the reaction to this reshuffle seems to be less intense than previous ones. The key question at this stage is whether the resistance will intensify over the coming days or if it has been eroded by sustained pressure on figures like Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas. Friedman noted that while there were initial indications of dissent, the resistance may not be as strong as it was during previous shake-ups. This suggests that the decision may have more staying power in the short term. The coming days will reveal whether the resistance gathers momentum or fades away over time. Friedman also addressed the perceived power of President Zuma within the National Assembly and Parliament. While some believe Zuma has enough support to weather any potential votes of no confidence or impeachment, Friedman highlighted that the ANC's internal dynamics and culture play a significant role in shaping political actions. He pointed out that while the ANC has significant parliamentary numbers, the prevailing culture within the party may prevent a significant challenge to Zuma's leadership. Despite this, Friedman emphasized that key societal forces opposed to the reshuffle do not currently have a robust response, indicating a complex political landscape at play. Another focal point of discussion was Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, who, along with other senior ANC leaders, has expressed opposition to the reshuffle. Friedman noted that Ramaphosa and his counterparts hold positions that offer some protection from removal, unlike cabinet ministers. This raises questions about the extent of action that Ramaphosa and others are willing to take in response to the shake-up. Given their stable positions within the ANC, expectations are high for them to take a firm stand against the reshuffle. As the conversation shifted to potential future developments, the absence of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma in the cabinet lineup drew attention. Friedman clarified that Dlamini-Zuma's absence from the cabinet does not preclude her from running for the presidency of the ANC. Speculation surrounding the timing of the reshuffle and its ties to certain deals, including those involving banks like Habib Bank and individuals like Malusi Gigaba, prompted questions about the broader agenda at play. Friedman highlighted that while specific triggers may initiate these changes, the reshuffle reflects wider power struggles within the ANC and a contest for control over the Treasury. In conclusion, the cabinet reshuffle underlines not just immediate issues related to individuals or specific incidents but broader political and economic stakes. The tussle over the Treasury signifies a deeper battle for influence and direction within the ruling party. While the Gupta family's involvement may have sparked recent events, the underlying contest for power and resources will endure beyond their immediate influence. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of resistance and response to these significant political shifts.