US-China trade war: Possible deal on the cards

The ongoing trade war between the United States and China has been a dominant force shaping global markets and economies over the past year. As the December 15 deadline for additional U.S. levies on Chinese exports looms, the question on everyone's mind is whether a fair phase one trade deal is on the horizon. Ryan Patel, a Global Business Executive and Senior Fellow at Drucker School of Management, provided insights on the current state of the trade war in an interview with CNBC Africa. In the interview, Patel reflected on the unpredictability of the duration of the trade war, the potential timelines for a deal, and the implications for President Trump's reelection prospects. Here's a closer look at the key points discussed in the interview: 1. Unforeseen Duration of the Trade War: When asked about his initial expectations regarding the duration of the trade war, Patel candidly admitted that he had anticipated a quicker resolution. He expressed surprise at the prolonged nature of the conflict, attributing it to the complex nature of the issues at stake. Patel highlighted the evolving focus of the trade war, noting that it had expanded to encompass key issues such as intellectual property rights and the involvement of U.S. and Chinese companies. The unpredictable twists and turns in the trade war have captured the attention of businesses and consumers alike, underscoring the far-reaching impact of the ongoing negotiations. 2. Timelines and Trump's Objectives: Patel delved into President Trump's objectives in the trade war, emphasizing the President's desire to broker a monumental deal. While discussing potential timelines for a deal, Patel noted the significance of the upcoming December 15 deadline as a pivotal moment that could signal the direction of future negotiations. He underscored the critical nature of the looming deadline in determining whether the U.S. and China would chart a path towards resolving their differences or risk escalating tensions through tariffs. The urgency of reaching a deal before the 2020 election was highlighted as a key factor shaping the trajectory of the negotiations. 3. Implications for Trump's Re-election: The interview also touched upon the political ramifications of the trade war for President Trump's re-election prospects. Patel emphasized the importance of securing a deal or, at the very least, making significant progress towards a resolution before the 2020 election. He speculated on various scenarios where Trump could leverage a partial deal as a strategic advantage in his campaign narrative. Additionally, Patel acknowledged the multifaceted nature of the trade war, highlighting President Trump's use of unconventional tactics beyond traditional tariff measures, such as immigration policies and investment restrictions, to exert pressure on China. In conclusion, as the deadline approaches and the stakes remain high, the trajectory of the U.S.-China trade war hangs in the balance. The complex interplay of economic, political, and strategic considerations underscores the challenges and opportunities inherent in the negotiations. As global markets brace for potential developments, all eyes are on the key players involved in shaping the future of international trade relations.