COVID-19: When should we expect aviation to bounce back?

The aviation industry has been one of the hardest-hit sectors by the COVID-19 pandemic, with massive disruptions in operations and revenue streams. Derek Kinseko, managing director at IFLY Aviation, shed some light on the challenges facing the industry and the road to recovery in a recent interview with CNBC Africa. Kinseko highlighted the uncertainties clouding the aviation sector amidst the ongoing crisis. He emphasized that the damage caused by the total shutdown of the industry is significant and noted that it might take three to five years for the industry to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels. The future looks tough, especially for smaller players like JambuJet and Loo, which lack substantial financial resources. Larger airlines have already sought financial aid, reflecting the vulnerability of the entire industry. National airlines, often government-owned, are among the worst affected, facing unprecedented financial difficulties. While governments have traditionally provided bailouts to struggling airlines, the current crisis has strained their ability to extend further support, leading to severe challenges in the industry. The lack of financial aid could spell doom for airlines of all sizes, necessitating immediate cash flow support to ensure their survival. As flight operations gradually resume, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports a global decline of up to 95%, with some markets showing a 30% recovery. Collaborative efforts across the aviation sector are crucial to revive passenger confidence and increase air travel. With an anticipated overcapacity once restrictions ease, the industry must address excess seating and job losses to bounce back effectively. Safety measures, including enhanced cleaning protocols and social distancing on flights, are pivotal for rebuilding trust among passengers. However, reduced passenger capacity due to physical distancing may lead to higher ticket prices, posing a barrier to air travel uptake post-pandemic. In the face of these challenges, African airlines must rethink their business strategies and foster cooperation to ensure sustainability in the new normal. Kinseko highlighted the importance of regional markets and cautioned against premature aircraft acquisitions, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to fleet expansion. Boeing's observations on airlines hesitating to take scheduled deliveries underscore the cautious sentiment prevailing in the industry. In conclusion, Kinseko advised against wide-body aircraft acquisitions in the current climate, recommending a focus on smaller, more flexible aircraft to align with evolving market dynamics and demand. As African airlines navigate the turbulence of the post-COVID era, strategic decisions and collaboration will be key to charting a sustainable path to recovery.