How Africa's political tension affects growth

Political tension and civil unrest in Senegal have sparked concerns among investors looking into Africa's growth potential. The call to oppose a third term for President Macky Sall has raised uncertainty and risks, potentially affecting the region's stability and economic performance. Murtala Touray, a Senior Geopolitical Analyst for West and Central Africa, shared insights on the impact of these pressing issues on the continent in a recent interview with CNBC Africa. Senegal, known for its political stability since gaining independence from France in the 1960s, faces a critical juncture with President Sall's potential bid for a third term. The country, which has been a model of democracy with peaceful power transitions, now grapples with the consequences of political uncertainty. President Sall's ambiguity on whether he will run for a third term has heightened tensions, as the opposition and civil society groups rally against a potential power grab. This situation not only threatens Senegal's stability but also raises concerns for economic institutions like the Central Bank of the UMWA headquartered in the country. The uncertainty surrounding the political landscape in Senegal casts a shadow over GDP forecasts and the overall economic performance for the year. Beyond Senegal, geopolitical analyst Murtala Touray highlighted the challenges faced by countries like Sudan and Burkina Faso, where civil conflicts have persisted, impacting investor confidence and economic growth. In Sudan, ongoing violence and political instability have claimed hundreds of lives, underscoring the fragility of governance in the region since the ousting of President al-Bashir. The rising cost of living and inflation pressures have further exacerbated social unrest, with governments under pressure to address economic disparities by phasing out subsidies, a move that often triggers public protests and unrest. Looking ahead, the withdrawal of French forces from Burkina Faso signals a shift in external influences in Francophone West Africa. However, the vacuum left by the departure of French troops has led to increasing foreign interventions, with countries like Russia seeking to assert their influence in the region. The growing tensions and potential for external interference pose challenges to democratic processes and regional stability. While regional blocs like ECOWAS have played a mediation role in conflicts, the current outlook for the Sahel region remains bleak, with the specter of insecurity and political turmoil looming over investment prospects. As political tensions escalate and conflicts persist, the economic landscape in Africa faces uncertainties that could hinder growth prospects. Investors are closely monitoring developments in key regions to assess risks and opportunities amidst the evolving geopolitical dynamics. The road ahead for Africa's economic trajectory hinges on political stability, conflict resolution, and ensuring a conducive environment for sustainable growth.