<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-404443" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Stock-value-rising-and-falling.jpg 1254w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering</figcaption></figure>



Feb 29 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks eyed strong monthly gains on Thursday, with a Chinese recovery fuelling the bulk of the gains, while most currencies were range-bound ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which is likely to set the tone for rate cut expectations.



At 0901 GMT, MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market (EM) stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was up 0.1%, on track for a monthly advance of 4.5%, its best February performance since 2012.



Mainland Chinese shares&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;closed 1.9% higher following a more than 1% fall in the previous session, with a monthly gain of 9.4% snapping a six-month losing streak.



&#8220;Investor sentiment has stabilised since China&#8217;s markets reopened, in part supported by positive retail spending and travel data from the holiday period,&#8221; Wee Khoon Chong, APAC market strategist at BNY Mellon, wrote.



State-led buying and tighter regulations have been primarily responsible for pulling China&#8217;s blue-chip index off five-year lows, but more aggressive stimulus is needed for the momentum to continue amid a moribund economy.&nbsp;.SS



Stocks in emerging Europe also had a bright start, with Turkey&#8217;s main index&nbsp;.XU100&nbsp;gaining 0.7%, while shares in Warsaw&nbsp;.WIG20&nbsp;jumped 1.2%.



Turkey&#8217;s economy grew 4.5% last year and 4.0% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations as strong domestic demand offset fallout from devastating earthquakes and a slowdown in main trading partners.



A broader gauge of EM currencies&nbsp;.MEIM00000CUS&nbsp;was flat at 1,726.73 points as caution prevailed ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge later in the day &#8211; the personal consumer expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to set the tone for rate cut expectations in the world&#8217;s biggest economy.



Hungary&#8217;s forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;edged 0.2% higher against the euro, though was on track to be the worst performing currency amongst local peers this month.



Earlier in the week, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) slashed its base rate by 100 basis points to 9%.



The Polish zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;eased 0.1%, while the Czech crown&nbsp;EURCZK=&nbsp;also lost 0.1%.



Weakness in the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;helped South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;rise 0.4%, with Israel&#8217;s shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;also gaining 0.6%.



Meanwhile, Western powers butted heads over how to handle frozen Russian assets on Wednesday as G20 finance ministers kicked off a discussion of challenges for the global economy, trying to set aside deep geopolitical divisions.



The discussions will continue later in the day.



(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru;Editing by Mark Potter)

Macro view of a screen of trading terminal with abstract financial graph and digits. Trading and forex concept. 3D Rendering

Stocks eye monthly gains on China rebound, currencies steady ahead of US inflation test

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424855" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/HPBGECXM2RM4DJT5RIFPZCG5KU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The United Nations headquarters building is pictured with a UN logo in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 1, 2022. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



HARARE, Feb 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s public debt will stay above pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and 2025, with many countries still at risk of falling into debt distress as they continue to struggle to service international loans, a U.N. official said on Wednesday.



Addressing a United Nations Commission for Africa (UNECA) conference in Victoria Falls, the agency&#8217;s macroeconomics and governance director Adam Elhiraika said eight countries were in debt distress, while 13 were &#8220;expected to be at risk of debt distress&#8221;.



Africa has been hit by repeated economic shocks since 2020, from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine and rising U.S. interest rates, putting cash-strapped, debt-laden governments in a political and fiscal bind.



&#8220;Debt will (stay) above the pre-pandemic level. This is huge,&#8221; Elhiraika said, adding that the continent&#8217;s debt-to-GDP ratio was 62.5% at the end of 2022.



This ratio doubled to 57% in the decade to 2020 and could rise 10 percentage points in the next five years if Africa&#8217;s fiscal trajectory does not change, according to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.



&#8220;There is need for African countries to work with international partners to address debt distress,&#8221; Elhiraika said.



Africa&#8217;s fiscal deficit deteriorated to 4.6% of GDP last year, Elhiraika said, without citing previous years&#8217; figures, and is set to widen further to 5% in 2024.



Many African governments are having to slash spending, while interest payments are growing faster.



Zimbabwe Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube called for a rethink of the global financial system.



&#8220;Access to finance for Africa must be made cheaper and easier. Hence, there is a need to re-look at the international financial architecture to ensure that it is fit for purpose,&#8221; Ncube said, addressing the conference.



Zambia became the first African nation to default on its debt in late 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ghana followed in 2022, while Ethiopia became the latest last December.



(Reporting by Nyasha Chingono; Editing by Rachel Savage and Kevin Liffey)

FILE PHOTO: United Nations in New York City

Africa’s debt to stay above pre-pandemic levels through 2025, UN official says

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE, Feb 28 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Asian stocks eased on Wednesday in cautious trading ahead of a U.S. inflation reading this week that could influence the timing of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s easing cycle, while the New Zealand dollar fell after the central bank softened its hawkish stance.



MSCI&#8217;s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;.MIAPJ0000PUS&nbsp;was 0.44% lower at 525.40 points but hovering around a near seven-month peak of 531.56 after a strong rally. The index is up 4.4% for the month, its strongest February performance in more than a decade.



Asia&#8217;s tentative trading on Wednesday is likely to be mimicked in Europe, with Eurostoxx 50 futures&nbsp;STXEc1&nbsp;down 0.12%, while German DAX futures&nbsp;FDXc1&nbsp;were up 0.06%.



Investor focus is squarely on the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for January, the Fed&#8217;s preferred inflation measure, due on Thursday. The PCE is expected to have risen 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, up slightly from the 0.2% increase seen in December, a Reuters poll showed.



A slew of strong economic data along with inflation that has proven to be sticky has resulted in traders drastically dialling back their initial expectations of deep and early interest rate cuts from the Fed.



Markets now anticipate June to be the starting point of the easing cycle compared with March at the start of the year. Traders now expect 77 basis points of cuts this year versus pricing in 150 bps of easing at the start of the year.



Yuting Shao, macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, said individual data releases carry weight for a data-dependent Fed and will impact risk sentiment given the near-neutral positioning from investors.



&#8220;Although one data point does not make a trend, latest inflation and employment readings have raised the prospect that perhaps no landing scenario is driving many asset markets.&#8221;



Other data due this week that could help shape expectations from the Fed include the second estimate of gross domestic product, jobless claims and manufacturing activity.



Fed policymakers have also in recent days pushed back against cutting rates too early, with Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday saying she was in no rush to cut U.S. interest rates, particularly given upside risks to inflation that could stall progress or even cause a resurgence of price pressures.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-trapped-kiwi">TRAPPED KIWI</h2>



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the cash rate steady at 5.5% on Wednesday, reiterating that previous rate hikes had helped dampen prices, but adding that the risk of further rate hikes had been reduced.



That sent the New Zealand dollar&nbsp;NZD=D3&nbsp;down more than 1% to a nearly two-week low of $0.6101. The kiwi was last at $0.6111.



&#8220;The RBNZ has closed the door to further rate hikes, which was a surprise to somewhat hawkish expectations,&#8221; said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.



&#8220;This may give room for NZD longs to unwind in the short term, but NZD still provides a strong carry in this low volatility environment.&#8221;



Meanwhile, the Australian dollar wobbled a bit in early trading after data showed consumer price inflation held at a two-year low in January, reinforcing market expectations interest rates would not need to increase any further. The Aussie&nbsp;AUD=D3&nbsp;was 0.43% lower at $0.6515.



The dollar index&nbsp;=USD, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, rose 0.116%.



The yen&nbsp;JPY=EBS&nbsp;remained bolted to the psychologically key 150 per dollar level and was last at 150.625 per dollar. The Nikkei&nbsp;.N225&nbsp;ended marginally lower on the day, having touched fresh record peaks this week.



China stocks slid as investors booked profits after a recent rally, while worries over the property sector lingered after a liquidation petition was filed against developer Country Garden.



Hong Kong&#8217; Hang Seng index&nbsp;.HSI&nbsp;fell 1.1% and China&#8217;s blue-chip CSI300 index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;was down 0.27%.



U.S. crude&nbsp;CLc1&nbsp;fell 0.41% to $78.55 per barrel and Brent&nbsp;LCOc1&nbsp;was at $83.30, down 0.42% on the day, as the prospect of a delayed U.S. rate cutting cycle offset the boost provided by talk of extensions to production cuts from OPEC+.&nbsp;O/R



Spot gold XAU= rose 0.1% to $2,030.83 an ounce.



(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jamie Freed)

istockphoto-1076949610-612×612-1

Asian shares lose ground as US inflation data awaits; kiwi slides

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="604" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-820x604.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-460010" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-820x604.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-300x221.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-122x90.jpg 122w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-768x565.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-1536x1131.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SWKPWMQPNBJONAOSYUWQUMN254-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives to attend the opening of the WTO ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, February 26, 2024. REUTERS/Emma Farge</figcaption></figure>



ABU DHABI, Feb 26 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Trade ministers from around the world gathered in Abu Dhabi on Monday for a World Trade Organization meeting that aims to set new global commerce rules, but its ambitious chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and delegates sought to curb expectations.



The almost 30-year-old global watchdog, whose rules underpin 75% of global commerce, tries to strike deals by consensus, but such efforts are becoming more difficult amid signs that the global economy is fragmenting into separate blocs.



&#8220;Let&#8217;s not pretend that any of this will be easy,&#8221; Okonjo-Iweala said in her opening speech, describing the atmosphere as &#8220;tougher&#8221; than the WTO&#8217;s last 2022 meeting, citing wars, tensions and elections and signs that trade growth will undershoot the organisation&#8217;s own estimate.



She called on ministers to &#8220;roll up their sleeves&#8221; and complete negotiations, but seemed to rule out any deal in Abu Dhabi on reforming the body&#8217;s mothballed appeals court.



&#8220;We are not there yet,&#8221; she said.



Thani Al Zeyoudi, conference chair and UAE&#8217;s foreign trade minister said in an opening address: &#8220;The multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core is at a critical juncture; it is confronting many challenges.



&#8220;The WTO remains a powerful force in countering the current unilateralism, protectionism, and discrimination.&#8221;



Some delegates privately voiced concerns that India&#8217;s trade minister, seen as the main holdout on some key issues including agriculture, was absent on Monday although New Delhi said he would be in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-new-members">NEW MEMBERS</h2>



Negotiators say they remain hopeful for an agreement that could buoy global fish stocks and protect fishermen by banning government subsidies.



Other outcomes from the four-day meeting that are either definite or achievable are the accession of two new members &#8211; Comoros and East Timor &#8211; and a deal among around 120 countries to remove development-hampering investment barriers.



Tougher areas are extending a 25-year moratorium on applying tariffs on digital trade, which South Africa and India oppose, and an agreement on agriculture trade rules that has eluded negotiators for decades.



Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal repeated on Monday New Delhi&#8217;s drive for a controversial stand-alone permanent waiver to WTO rules that currently restrict domestic agriculture subsidies on food items like rice.



&#8220;I think this week is really about trying to consolidate progress from two years ago and build on where possible, but I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s going to be major new breakthroughs in new areas,&#8221; said Simon Conveney, Ireland&#8217;s Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, referring to the WTO&#8217;s 2022 meeting in Geneva.



U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the meeting was a chance to &#8220;chart a future path together&#8221; and that success should not be measured by the number of deals.



One factor that could help is the determination of Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance minister, whose insistence on all-night meetings helped deliver a package of deals in Geneva in 2022. She has already asked ministers to plan for the four-day talks to run overtime.



The European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that uncertainty and multiple crises were impacting the rules-based global order. &#8220;This tense geopolitical environment makes multilateral organizations like the WTO much more, not less, important,&#8221; he said.



(Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell; Editing by Alex Richardson, Bernadette Baum and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala arrives to attend the opening of the WTO ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi

WTO meeting seeks modest outcomes, with global trade at ‘critical juncture’

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-459116" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/76KI5H4MAFL5ZK7OGV4LXR2UG4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, U.S., November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Red Sea shipping delays and OPEC+ supply cuts are tightening physical oil markets in Europe and Africa as well as the Brent crude market structure, lending further support to oil futures prices, according to traders, LSEG data and analysts.



A sustained rise in crude prices would lift energy, transportation and manufacturing costs and threaten to unwind some of the recent falls in global inflation, just as major central banks are expected to begin cutting interest rates.



On Thursday, the benchmark Brent crude futures market structure hit its most bullish since October. The premium of the first-month contract to the six-month contract&nbsp;LCOc1-LCOc7&nbsp;reached $4.34 a barrel. This structure, called backwardation, indicates a perception of tight prompt supply.



&#8220;It looks like there has been a pick-up in (tanker) diversions, which is making the crude balance tighter,&#8221; said FGE analyst James Davis. Crude demand is high because of strong refining margins, despite refinery maintenance, he added.



More tankers are avoiding the Red Sea since Yemen&#8217;s Houthis began drone and missile attacks against shipping in mid-November, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians as Israel wages war on Hamas.



January average refining margins for diesel and gasoline in Europe rose to multi-month highs of $34.3 and $11.6 a barrel, respectively, Reuters calculations show.



U.S. crude CLc1-CLc7 is also in backwardation, with the strength of Brent and WTI taking the trading community by surprise after predictions that supply would outpace demand at the start of the year.



The stronger market is a bonus for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. The group has been cutting supply for the past two years but has often struggled to achieve prices above $80 per barrel – the minimum most producers need to balance their budgets.



Brent&nbsp;LCOc1&nbsp;traded at almost $84 a barrel on Thursday and has risen 9% this year.



OPEC+ leaders have said backwardation is a positive market trend because it discourages traders from holding inventory to resell at a premium later, with low stocks also creating bullish market sentiment.



The world&#8217;s onshore crude inventories sit at 4.4 billion barrels, their lowest level since the start of 2017 when intelligence firm Kpler began tracking the data, JPMorgan said in a report.



&#8220;The physical sweet crude market is very tight,&#8221; said Black Gold Investors CEO Gary Ross, using a term for low-sulphur crude. Libyan outages, a U.S. cold snap that cut output and payment issues for some Russian supplies are among the reasons, he said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-firmer-footing">&#8216;FIRMER FOOTING&#8217;</h2>



OPEC+ sources have said the group will decide in early March whether to extend oil-output cuts into the second quarter of the year or begin returning supply to the market.



&#8220;The market has found a firmer footing with Brent trading above $80 for a while now, supported by what looks like a better-than-expected demand outlook together with the&#8230;tanker diversions keeping millions of barrels at sea for longer,&#8221; said Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank&#8217;s head of commodity strategy.



&#8220;OPEC+ I&#8217;m sure will be very pleased.&#8221;



In the North Sea crude market, the differential of Forties crude to benchmark dated Brent&nbsp;BFO-FOT&nbsp;has reached the highest since late November and the prices of some other grades considered local alternatives to Middle East crude have soared.



In October, about 1.07 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude came to Europe, Kpler data showed, with volumes falling in the following months amid the Red Sea attacks and expected to average about 606,000 bpd in February.



&#8220;Delays to shipments from East of Suez&#8230;are making crude closer to home more attractive,&#8221; a European crude trader said. &#8220;The offers for West Africa and North Sea crude reflect that.&#8221;



&#8220;Refining margins in Europe for Angolan crude are very favourable and Nigeria is selling cargoes faster than it has for months.&#8221;



Nigerian Forcados&nbsp;BFO-FOC&nbsp;crude was offered this week at dated Brent plus $6.00 a barrel, the highest since October LSEG data showed. Nigerian grades Qua Iboe and Bonny Light have firmed to dated plus $3.80 and $3.00, respectively.



In Asia, Middle East cash crude differentials have stayed pretty stable month on month, suggesting Europe and African crude is seeing the bulk of the strength.



U.S. crude has been mixed. On the light side, there has been some tightness due to a cold snap last month hitting Permian production, while March loadings to Asia are set to pick up after a weak January and February.



An unplanned outage at BP&#8217;s Whiting refinery has pushed some heavy Canadian crude into the Cushing storage hub and so there is currently little tightness.



(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Natalie Grover, Noah Browning and Ahmad Ghaddar, additional reporting by Florence Tan and Arathy Somasekhar; editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirsten Donovan)

FILE PHOTO: The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County

Europe, Africa oil markets tighten, lending support to futures

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-458020" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-820x462.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-300x169.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/102851129-oilandgold.jpg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">(L) Oil pumpjacks and (R) gold bars Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold prices could soar to $3,000 per ounce, and oil to $100 per barrel within the next 12 to 18 months subject to any one of three possible catalysts, according to Citi.



Gold, which is currently trading at $2,016, could surge by about 50%, if central banks sharply ramp up purchases of the yellow metal, a possible stagflation, or in case of a deep global recession, Aakash Doshi, Citi’s North America head of commodities research, told CNBC.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-central-bank-s-gold-rush"><a></a>Central bank’s gold rush</h2>



“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Citi analysts including Doshi wrote in a recent note.



That could double central bank’s gold purchases, challenging jewelry consumption as the largest driver of gold demand, Doshi elaborated. 



Central banks’ gold purchases have “accelerated to record levels” in recent years, as they seek to diversify reserves and reduce credit risk, Citi said. China and Russian central banks are leading gold purchases, with India, Turkey, and Brazil, also increasing&nbsp;bullion buying.



The world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases, the World Gold Council reported in January.



“If that goes again [to] double very quickly to 2,000 tons, we think that would be actually very bullish for gold,” Doshi told CNBC via phone.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>A global recession?</h2>



Another trigger that could drive gold to $3,000 would be a “deep global recession” that could spur the U.S. Federal Reserves to cut rates rapidly.



“That means the brakes have been cut, not to 3%, but to 1% or lower &#8211; that will take us to $3,000,” Doshi said, noting that this is a low probability scenario.



Gold prices tend to share an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment. 



The Fed benchmark interest rate has been between 5.25% and 5.5% since July 2023, the highest since January 2001 when it shot to 6% following the dot-com bubble burst. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates in May or June.



Stagflation — an increasing inflation rate, a slowing economic growth and rising unemployment — could be another trigger, though Doshi said there’s a “very low probability” of such a scenario.



Gold is perceived as a safe haven and tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty when investors move away from the riskier assets such as equities.



These three potential triggers aside, Citi maintains that their base case for bullion is $2,150 in the second half of 2024, and the price of gold to average a little over $2,000 in the first half. A new record could be reached towards the end of 2024, Doshi added.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>Oil at $100?</h2>



Another wildcard scenario highlighted in Citi’s report was for oil prices to hit triple digits again.



The catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts and supply disruptions from key oil producing regions, Doshi said.&nbsp;



The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has not hit oil production or exports, with the only significant impact being the Houthi attacks from Yemen on oil tankers and other ships traversing the Red Sea.



Major oil producer Iraq has been impacted by the conflict and any further escalation could hurt other major OPEC+ suppliers in the region, Citi said.



Recent developments show that tensions have been rising on the border between Israel and Lebanon, raising fears that the war in Gaza could spread elsewhere in the Middle East.



Doshi said Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela are vulnerable to supply disruptions, with steeper U.S. sanctions policy on Iran and Venezuela potentially on the cards.&nbsp;



Other geopolitical risks such as Russian oil supplies, should Ukraine attack Russian refineries with drones, cannot be ruled out, Citi’s analysts wrote. Doshi maintained that their base case for oil stands at around $75 per barrel for the year.



Global benchmark Brent’s April futures were trading at $83.56 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate March futures stood at $79.13 per barrel.<a href="https://www.tetrapak.com/insights/trendipedia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"></a>

102851129-oilandgold

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-451705" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/A6RAHQABDRIGTJNVXZ2UH7TGEQ-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The headquarters of the African Development Bank (AfDB) are pictured in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, January 30, 2020.REUTERS/Luc Gnago</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, Feb 16 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s economic growth fell to 3.2% last year from 4.1% in 2022, the African Development Bank said on Friday, but it projected higher growth this year for all regions except central Africa.



The AfDB said political instability and China&#8217;s economic slowdown were compounding the shocks of COVID-19 and Russia&#8217;s war in Ukraine.



The final figure for 2023 was below the 3.4% growth the AfDB had forecast in November. It also cut its regional growth estimates for central and north Africa, amid a recession in oil producer Equatorial Guinea and the aftermath of devastating flooding in Libya.



&#8220;The shocks buffeting African economies since 2020 have damaged growth, with long-term implications,&#8221; the bank said in a report.



Despite the shocks buffeting the region, 15 African countries posted economic growth of more than 5% last year, the AfDB said, including Ethiopia, which is restructuring its external debt, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius and Rwanda.



The bank forecast faster growth in all regions except for central Africa in 2024, with southern Africa seen as remaining the laggard at 2.2% compared with 5.7% in east Africa.



Southern Africa&#8217;s &#8220;sluggish performance reflects the continued economic stagnation in South Africa,&#8221; the bank said, with the region&#8217;s largest economy, which holds national elections this year, predicted to grow 1.1% in 2024, up from 0.8% last year.



&#8220;This underwhelming economic situation has aggravated the country&#8217;s persistently high unemployment, poverty, and inequality and prevented it from reaping democratic dividends in the 30 years since the end of White minority rule,&#8221; AfDB said.



Nigeria, West Africa&#8217;s largest economy, is set to grow 2.9% in 2024, up 0.4 percentage points from last year as a sharply devalued currency pushes up inflation, exacerbating a cost of living crisis.



In Egypt, high inflation and foreign exchange shortages are forecast to drag growth down to 3.7% this year, versus 4% in 2023.



(Reporting by Rachel Savage;)

The headquarters of the African Development Bank (AfDB) are pictured in Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Africa’s economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023, says African Devt Bank

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="615" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-820x615.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-456424" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-820x615.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-300x225.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-120x90.jpg 120w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/N3Y547ISMFMVHN57UVOVL7X2Y4-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Workers help their colleague to carry a bag of cocoa beans on his head in San-Pedro, Ivory Coast October 1, 2023. REUTERS/Ange Aboa/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



ABIDJAN, Feb 15 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Ivory Coast&#8217;s Cocoa and Coffee Council will not default on its export contracts despite a drop in cocoa production since the start of the October-to-March main crop, CCC&#8217;s managing director Yves Brahima Kone said on Thursday.



His remarks followed reports that as traders are scrambling for beans, industry experts are predicting ever wider deficits this season and have growing concerns for the next. Last week, a Reuters cocoa poll forecast a global deficit of 375,000 tons in the 2023/24 season.



Bean supply is tight in the world&#8217;s top producer of the commodity. Cocoa arrivals at ports were 33% lower between Oct. 1 and Feb. 11 compared to the same period last season.



Kone said in an interview on Thursday that the Cocoa and Coffee Council regulator would still meet all its commitments made to exporters last year.



He said the amount of beans available on cocoa plantations across the country would still be enough to meet export contracts despite a sharp drop in supply recorded since the start of the 2023-24 season.



&#8220;I can tell you that there are no and will be no defaults this year in Ivory Coast,&#8221; Kone said.



&#8220;We have been cautious and have sold volumes we were able to produce this season, both for the main and mid crops, so we are calm and serene,&#8221; he said.



Several industry sources, including exporters, have said the April-to-September mid crop would be more or less in line with usual production patterns, which would compensate for low main crop output.



Pod counters, exporters and analysts estimate mid crop production to sit between 450,000 and 500,000 tonnes.



Kone said export contracts that could not be met with main crop harvests would be pushed back to the mid crop&#8217;s harvest period, which has already happened in the past.



&#8220;We can see that the mid crop harvest is developing much better than we expected, and that&#8217;s reassuring. We have sold less and have a good margin,&#8221; he said.



&#8220;We are going to postpone any contracts that need to be postponed, but it&#8217;s important to remember that we have sold just under 300,000 tonnes in mid crop contracts. This gives us some leeway in relation to production forecasts,&#8221; he added.



&#8220;There is less cocoa available this year, but there is plenty for those who have contracts.&#8221;



(Reporting by Ange Aboa; Editing by Sofia Christensen and Susan Fenton)

FILE PHOTO: Workers help their colleague to carry a bag of cocoa beans on his head in San-Pedro

Ivory Coast cocoa council says it will not default on contracts despite bean shortage

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-442452" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-820x461.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727.jpeg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A worker tying copper wire rods before loading them onto a truck in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Feb 14 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Prices of most non-ferrous metals eased on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.



Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange&nbsp;CMCU3&nbsp;was down 0.8% at $8,195.50 a metric ton, as of 0531 GMT.



The dollar traded near three-month highs against major peers as traders pushed back bets for a first Fed rate cut following surprisingly hot U.S. inflation figures overnight.&nbsp;USD/



A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.



&#8220;Base metals prices are trading lower due to strong U.S. CPI numbers which weighed on expectations of sooner and deeper rate cuts,&#8221; ANZ analyst Soni Kumari said.



Federal funds futures currently price in no rate cut in March and a lower than 50% chance of easing in May, according to LSEG&#8217;s rate probability app.



Data on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in January amid rises in the costs of shelter and healthcare.



Copper, widely used in power and construction, is down more than 4% this month on concerns about demand from top consumer China and its property sector in particular, though activity is muted this week as China celebrates the Lunar New Year.



&#8220;We remain positive on copper due to renewed supply challenges. Tight concentrate market, created by recent mine closures, have seen smelter processing fees falling sharply,&#8221; ANZ&#8217;s Kumari said.



&#8220;Following years of relentless growth, Chinese smelters are now being forced to postpone new plants, bring forward maintenance and even cut production outright amid heavy financial losses. This could impact refined copper production.&#8221;



In other metals, LME aluminium&nbsp;CMAL3&nbsp;slipped 0.6% to $2,212 a ton, nickel&nbsp;CMNI3&nbsp;was steady at $16,270, zinc&nbsp;CMZN3&nbsp;fell 0.7% to $2,299.50, while lead&nbsp;CMPB3&nbsp;rose 0.4% to $2,005. Tin&nbsp;CMSN3&nbsp;dropped 1.4% to $27,200.



For the top stories in metals and other news, click



TOP/MTL&nbsp;or&nbsp;MET/L



(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Mrigank Dhaniwala)

107352936-1704115855740-gettyimages-1460414638-vcg111420025727

Most base metals fall on stronger dollar after US inflation data

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



Feb 12 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A gauge of emerging market stocks was marginally lower in light trading on Monday, with Indian shares amongst leading fallers, while Israel&#8217;s shekel dipped after ratings agency Moody&#8217;s downgraded the country&#8217;s credit rating.



MSCI&#8217;s index for EM stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;edged 0.1% lower by 0918 GMT, on track for its third straight session decline, while currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;were largely flat on the day.



Israel&#8217;s shekel ILS= fell 0.4% against the dollar after Moody&#8217;s on Friday downgraded the country&#8217;s credit rating, citing material political and fiscal risks from its war with the Palestinian militant group Hamas.



The rating was cut to &#8220;A2&#8221;, which is five notches above investment grade, while its credit outlook was kept at negative, meaning a further downgrade is possible.



&#8220;Against the background of the security situation, a notch decrease in creditworthiness appears also rather unspectacular and would only follow market pricing rather than cause it,&#8221; Michel Nies, an economist at Citi, wrote in a note.



&#8220;However, the negative outlook and the statement for the latter might be more concerning in the sense that an end to hostilities would not necessarily lead to a reversal of the downgrade.&#8221;



Activity was mostly muted due to holidays in major hubs including mainland China, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia.



In Europe, official data showed Turkey&#8217;s unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point month-on-month to 8.8% in December, edging back towards the lowest level in a decade which it hit in October.



The lira&nbsp;TRY=&nbsp;was mostly stable against the dollar, while equities&nbsp;.XU100&nbsp;gained 0.9%, lifted by rising materials shares.



Hungary&#8217;s forint&nbsp;EURHUF=&nbsp;eased 0.3% against the Euro after rising as much as 0.6% in the previous session, while South Africa&#8217;s rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;edged 0.1% higher, on track for its first daily advance in four sessions.



In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia&#8217;s benchmark stock index .TASI gained 0.2% after Israel said it had &#8220;concluded&#8221; a series of strikes on southern Gaza.



The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday Middle East economies were lagging below growth projections due to oil production cuts and the Israel-Hamas conflict, even as the global economic outlook remained resilient.



Meanwhile, stocks in Pakistan .KSE fell as much as 2.8% after the country&#8217;s national elections ended with no party winning a majority in parliament.



Equities in India .NSEI were down 0.6%, dragged lower by declining energy shares. .BO



(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell)

Stocks edge lower in holiday affected trade; Israel’s shekel down after rating cut

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="538" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-820x538.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-454107" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-820x538.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-300x197.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-768x504.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-1536x1008.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/UV3YUMQW55JE3G5VZUFUJTFGZE-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Trafigura logo is pictured in the company entrance in Geneva March 11, 2012. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse</figcaption></figure>



LUSAKA, Feb 8 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The United States will provide more funds for the construction of the Lobito Corridor, a rail link to export metals from Central Africa&#8217;s Copperbelt, including a link for Zambia, U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein said.



Washington has been supporting the project linking mineral-rich Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Lobito port in Angola. The link seeks to bypass logistics bottlenecks in South Africa that have held up copper and cobalt exports &#8211; metals vital to the energy transition away from fossil fuels.



In 2022, a consortium led by global commodities giant Trafigura, Portugal&#8217;s Mota-Engil&nbsp;MOTA.LS&nbsp;and Vecturis SA of Belgium was awarded a 30-year concession for railway services and support logistics on the Lobito Corridor. The consortium plans to spend $455 million in Angola and $100 million in the DRC on equipment, operations and infrastructure maintenance.



Additional funding is required to extend the 1,700 km (1,060 miles) line into Zambia in the second phase.



&#8220;We have committed to finance $250 million for the Angola phase one. I expect that we will commit additional resources in the same range for the second phase,&#8221; Hochstein said late Wednesday in an interview ahead of an investment forum on the project in Zambia.



The first phase involved upgrading the rail line on the Angolan side, and the second phase will involve building a new multibillion-dollar rail through Zambia and beyond, he said.



&#8220;I expect that we will start seeing some significant volumes using the rail by June-July,&#8221; he said, without giving figures.



The U.S. and its partners have also mobilised close to $1 billion to expand the Lobito Corridor by developing a new 800 km (500 mile) rail line to further connect Zambia to the network, he said during the opening of the investment forum on Thursday.



&#8220;With the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) as the private-sector lead developing the project, we aim to break ground in 2026 and have an operational rail between eastern Angola across northwestern Zambia by 2028,&#8221; he said.



The AFC had financing commitments from the U.S., the European Union and African Development Bank (AfDB), which would bring in extra private sector financing, he said.



Hochstein welcomed the announcement on Wednesday by mining firm Ivanhoe Mines&nbsp;IVN.TO&nbsp;that it had signed up to use the rail line for its copper exports from the DRC.



&#8220;That&#8217;s critically important because it shows commitment by the private sector to this project. It will also make financing cheaper,&#8221; Hochstein said.



He also said the U.S. was contemplating other similar projects in Africa and elsewhere.



&#8220;Within Africa, I expect to have at least one more in the next year,&#8221; Hochstein said, without specifying where.



(Reporting by Chris Mfula; Editing by Nelson Banya and Mark Potter)

FILE PHOTO: Trafigura logo is pictured in the company entrance in Geneva

US to commit more funds to African rail link for metal exports

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="357" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400669" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1030878162-612x612-1-300x175.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance</figcaption></figure>



Feb 7(Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market stocks pushed higher on Wednesday, as Chinese markets extended their rebound on hopes of further support from authorities, while Argentinian assets were in focus after a setback for President Javier Milei&#8217;s economic reform bill.



MSCI&#8217;s index for emerging market equities&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;was up 0.3% by 0946 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Jan. 3 earlier in the session.



China&#8217;s blue-chip CSI 300 Index&nbsp;.CSI300&nbsp;rose 1% while the Shanghai Composite index&nbsp;.SSEC&nbsp;ended up 1.4%, both pulling further away from recent five-year lows.



A raft of steps announced by Chinese authorities, including curbs on short-selling, have helped steady the country&#8217;s sagging stock markets in the last few sessions and hopes for more powerful market rescue measures have increased.



South Korea&#8217;s benchmark KOSPI&nbsp;.KS11&nbsp;index also jumped 1.3%.



Meanwhile, investors were watching Argentinian assets after a major economic reform package championed by libertarian President Javier Milei was set to be sent back to a legislative committee for consideration, marking a major setback for the bill.



Argentina&#8217;s dollar-denominated bond maturing in 2041&nbsp;040114HV5=1M&nbsp;fell 0.61 cents to trade at 33.683 cents on the dollar.



&#8220;We think the catalyst for the bonds will be progress on (or hurdles to) the legislative agenda and the signals it sends over popular support for Milei&#8217;s adjustment plan. Implementation risks will then follow,&#8221; analysts at Tellimer said in a note.



A basket of EM currencies&nbsp;.MIEM0000CUS&nbsp;was flat while the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;retreated from a three-month high.



Risk-sensitive EM currencies have been under pressure in 2024 as hawkish remarks from policymakers have led traders to dial back bets of early rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.



Most regional currencies will struggle to recoup this year&#8217;s losses against the dollar in coming months, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found.



Poland&#8217;s monetary policy decision is also on tap, with the central bank expected to keep its main interest rate on hold at 5.75% at 1300 GMT.



The Polish zloty&nbsp;EURPLN=&nbsp;was up 0.2% versus the euro while stocks in Warsaw&nbsp;.WIG&nbsp;advanced 0.3%.



Elsewhere, Sri Lanka expects to implement a debt restructuring framework within the first six months of 2024, the country&#8217;s president said on Wednesday.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; editing by Christina Fincher)

World map with charts and graphs as symbols of global finance

Stocks nudge higher on China stimulus signals, Argentina in focus

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-424241" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/QOM6DFY4YFKBTJHWK36SCHU26U-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo in Washington, United States, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Feb 5 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;A new report has called for a radical global effort this year to help vulnerable countries fend off financial meltdown and climate change, including widespread debt relief and even a China-led version of the Brady Bond plan.



The report by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center warned that 62 developing economies, including most of Africa and Oceania, are already in a full-blown debt crisis or in immediate need of restructurings.



Last year&#8217;s surge in world interest rates combined with underwhelming post-pandemic economic recoveries and the costs of climate change mean a near record number of countries now spend at least 20% of their government revenues servicing their debt.



That is widely regarded as unsustainable.



Around 21 countries make half of those payments to multilateral development banks (MDBs) like the World Bank, said the report, while eight are in a similar situation with China, two to the Western &#8220;Paris Club&#8221; governments and two to their international bondholders.



&#8220;The world is facing a now or never moment,&#8221; the report published on Sunday said. &#8220;Immediate action is needed to curtail the intrinsically linked global debt and environmental crises&#8221;.



The call to arms comes just ahead of 2024&#8217;s first meeting next week of the &#8220;Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable&#8221;, a group co-chaired by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the G20 Brazilian presidency and whose job it is to formulate better ways to resolve debt problems.



Boston University professor Kevin Gallagher said far more &#8220;ambition&#8221; was needed with the G20-led &#8220;Common Framework&#8221; default resolution programme, largely regarded as a flop since its creation a few years ago.



As well as speeding up debt restructurings, countries should also have an option to temporarily suspend debt payments before they plunge into default.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-chinese-brady-bonds">CHINESE BRADY BONDS?</h2>



Meanwhile China&#8217;s increasing importance as a creditor to the developing world means it should consider spearheading a modern day version of the Brady Bond plan backed by the U.S. Treasury in the late 1980s to help resolve Latin American crises.



&#8220;The Chinese seem to be the most appropriate for a Brady Bond approach,&#8221; Gallagher said, explaining that like with Western banks in Latin America in the 1980s, China&#8217;s state-controlled banks often provide loans in troubled countries now.



&#8220;We need carrots and sticks,&#8221; Gallagher said. &#8220;We need to give these countries breathing room.&#8221;



The report also looked at risks coming from climate change.



Around 91 countries are above the global median for at least one of four categories: their climate change vulnerability, the need to reduce emissions to meet Paris Agreement targets and opportunities to protect precious land or coastal ecosystems.



Chad, Niger and Guinea-Bissau are all highly vulnerable to global warming, whereas Cabo Verde, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea all have huge conservation opportunities.



The prospect of climate change doubter Donald Trump getting back into power in the United States after November elections is another reason why there is such urgency to provide debt relief now.



&#8220;Trump has shown (during his first term) he can withdraw from an international treaty, but it would be hard to dismantle something if it was at the G20 level,&#8221; Gallagher said. &#8220;That is why this is the year to lock this in.&#8221;



(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

FILE PHOTO: The IMF logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington

Vulnerable countries need debt relief ‘now or never’, new report warns

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-453152" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold and silver are expected to climb further in 2024 on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, UBS forecasts.



“We are expecting gold to be pushed higher by a Fed easing. Also this comes with a weaker dollar” said the investment bank’s precious metals strategist Joni Teves, who expects the metal to hit $2,200 per ounce by the end of the year.



Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. As interest rates dip, gold becomes more appealing compared to alternative investments like bonds, which would yield weaker returns in a low interest rate environment.&nbsp;



In turn, lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand.



While there is still much uncertainty on the timing and extent of rate cuts, UBS maintained its expectations for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Last week, the Fed announced its decision to leave rates unchanged in January, on top of shooting down hopes of a rate cut in March. 



The bullion’s appeal as a safe haven asset has risen since Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7, which contributed to gold prices notching an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce last month.



“We do think investors will start to build allocations to gold in an environment where there is a lot of macro uncertainty [and] geopolitical risks,” said Teves.



Prospects for gold’s “poorer cousin” are also optimistic, with silver on course to “really, really shine.”



Silver is not as common of a geopolitical and safety haven compared to gold, which partly explains why it has underperformed gold in the last few years, the strategist said. But the tables could turn in its favor when the Fed eases.



“In a scenario where the Fed is easing, we think silver can do really well. It tends to outperform a move in gold,” Teves said. “Silver has been underperforming gold quite a lot. So there is a lot of catching up to do and I think the move could be quite dramatic,” she added.



Silver’s performance is tied closely to the health of the overall economy due to its wide industrial applications. The precious metal is commonly incorporated in the manufacturing of automobiles, solar panels, jewelry and electronics.



Gold last traded at $2,052 per ounce, while silver was priced at $22.69 per ounce.

107233200-1682914795655-gettyimages-1248428651-20090101230317-99-987917

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="462" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-820x462.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-452310" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-820x462.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-160x90.jpeg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118.jpeg 929w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Gold purchases from central banks led to last year’s surge, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for two consecutive years. Traffic_analyzer | Istock | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 as persistent geopolitical tensions and weakness in China’s economy pushed investors toward the safe haven asset, the World Gold Council said in report.



Total gold transactions stood at 4,899 tons last year compared with 4,741 tons in 2022, inclusive of over the counter deals as well as stock flows that reflect changes to inventories on commodity exchanges.



Unlike trading conducted by an exchange, OTC transactions take place directly between two parties.



The biggest drivers of gold demand in 2023 were the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas conflict as well as the slowdown in China’s economy — and these could continue boosting the metal’s prices well into 2024, said Shaokai Fan, head of central banks at WGC.&nbsp;



Prices hit an all-time high of $2,100 an ounce in December as central banks as well as retail investors increased purchases of gold — central bank purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years. 



“2023 was the second highest year in history of central bank gold buying, within a hair’s breadth of the record high in 2022,” Fan told CNBC in a Zoom interview.&nbsp;



The report showed that the People’s Bank of China was the biggest buyer of gold at 225 tons last year, bumping up its stock to 2,235 tons.



“If you as an individual will see that your own central bank is buying large amounts of gold, you’re at the very least more aware of gold … Or maybe you’re even influenced by the fact that your central bank is buying a lot of gold, you may think of gold as a personal&nbsp;investment as well,”&nbsp; Fan said.&nbsp;



China’s real estate crisis has also pushed more investors toward gold, he highlighted.



China Evergrande, once among the country’s largest property developers, was ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate after the company failed to reach an 11th-hour deal over the weekend to restructure.



The country’s investments in gold bars and coins rose 28% from 2023 and stood at 280 tons last year.



“Chinese investors are worried about the future of other asset classes, and they’re turning to gold as a way to protect their investment portfolios,” Fan said. Gold has actually done very well in renminbi terms, and very well compared to other asset classes in China.”&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-gold-jewelry-purchases"><a></a>Gold jewelry purchases</h2>



Data from the World Gold Council showed that&nbsp;China dethroned India as the world’s largest gold&nbsp;jewelry buyer in 2023.&nbsp;



People in China bought 603 tons of gold Jewelry in 2023, a 10% increase from the previous year.&nbsp;



This was largely due to a rise in weddings that were postponed after the economy reopened from the pandemic in late 2022, Fan noted. 



He&nbsp;elaborated that gold purchases could rise further as the Lunar New Year approaches, and according to Asian folklore, the upcoming Year of the Dragon is a good year to have children.&nbsp;



“More babies will generally [cause] a positive impact on gold demand,” Fan said, but warned that China’s gold demand could fall after the first quarter of 2024.&nbsp;



Apart from rising gold prices and a slowdown in economic growth, this year is predicted to be a less auspicious year for marriages, the WGC report said.&nbsp;India too will have just 16 auspicious wedding dates in the first quarter, compared with 28 last year.



Gold Jewelry purchases fell by 6% in 2023 to 562 tons from the previous year due to the country’s price sensitive market, Fan said.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a></a>2024 outlook&nbsp;</h2>



Gold purchases this year are unlikely to meet 2023 levels, but a fall in inflation could prevent a drastic drop in demand, WGC said.&nbsp;



“Should inflation drop significantly consumers might start to feel wealthier in real terms, which could mitigate some of the drop in demand.” 



Inflation in the U.S. came in at 3.3% on a 12-month basis in 2023, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying Wednesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut interest rates in March.



The announcement triggered a 3% fall in gold prices which stood at $2,064 during Asia’s Thursday morning trading session.



“During periods of persistent strong hyperinflation, gold does very well. But during moderate inflationary periods, gold can go either way. It might be determined by other factors as well,” Fan said.

107308670-1695930955313-gettyimages-1478432952-118

Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 amid geopolitical risks, China weakness

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="542" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-820x542.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-452096" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-820x542.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-136x90.jpg 136w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/VD3Z4T2SLNI6BBBICXVUAKWUBI-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington, U.S., on March 19, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Major central banks stood pat on interest rates in January, as the much anticipated change of course in the global monetary policy draws closer while emerging market peers ploughed on with rate cuts.



January saw five of the central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies &#8211; the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and Norges Bank &#8211; hold rate setting meetings with none changing rates. That follows on from eight meetings in December where only Norway hiked.



&#8220;Interest rates are set to remain front and centre in 2024,&#8221; Philip Shaw at Investec said in a research note. &#8220;However, in a departure from the last two years, now the question is not how far central banks will raise rates, but when and how far they will cut.&#8221;



Fed chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday delivered a sweeping endorsement of the U.S. economy&#8217;s strength and said the next rate move would be lower. But he also pushed back against markets betting on a move as soon as March, with expectations now anticipating a first Fed cut in May.



Meanwhile, emerging economies &#8211; which have been frontrunning both the tightening and the easing cycle &#8211; ploughed on with rate cuts.



Five of the Reuters sample of 18 central banks in developing economies cut rates in January &#8211; matching the December number which had been the highest number in at least three years. Across the Reuters markets sample, 12 central banks held rate setting meetings last month.



Policy makers in Brazil, Hungary, Colombia and Chile all extended their easing push, while Israel joined the fray, delivering the first rate cut in four years. The moves brought the January rate cut tally to 275 basis point &#8211; the biggest monthly total since May 2022.



Turkey was the sole outlier in January, delivering another 250 bps rate hike to shore up its battered currency and tackle sticky inflation, though the central bank said it had now completed its aggressive tightening cycle.



Analysts predicted that monetary easing would continue to broaden out in the months ahead.



&#8220;Mexico&#8217;s central bank will probably be the next to cut rates later this quarter, and many Asian central banks will join the fray in April and May, which is sooner than most expect,&#8221; said William Jackson at Capital Economics in a note to clients.



(Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Sumanta Sen; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building is pictured in Washington

Major central bank rates plateau in January ahead of expected cuts

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="612" height="408" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-400697" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1.jpg 612w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/istockphoto-1076949610-612x612-1-300x200.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 612px) 100vw, 612px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Double exposure of coin stack with city background and world map, financial graph, world map and global network business concept idea, element by NASA.</figcaption></figure>



Feb 1 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Emerging market currencies were range-bound against a firm dollar on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against hopes of an early rate cut, while stocks edged higher as investors digested mixed business activity data from the region.



MSCI&#8217;s index of emerging market (EM) currencies&nbsp;.MIEM00000CUS&nbsp;was muted at 0922 GMT, while the dollar&nbsp;=USD&nbsp;held close to its highest level since mid-December.



The Fed held rates steady late Wednesday, as widely expected, but Powell, at a conference following the decision, said a rate cut at the March meeting was unlikely, leading investors to shift bets of the first cut to May.



&#8220;Markets have a tendency of being impatient when waiting for major central banks led by the Fed to start monetary policy easing after being hooked over many years&#8230;to low-interest rates,&#8221; said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at In Touch Capital Markets.



&#8220;This explains why investors ended up disappointed with remarks from Chair Powell. Consequently, the dollar is broadly stronger and EM currencies are weaker.&#8221;



The South African rand&nbsp;ZAR=&nbsp;slipped 0.1% against the dollar, and the Israeli shekel&nbsp;ILS=&nbsp;moved 0.2% lower.



Asian currencies were mixed with China&#8217;s yuan&nbsp;CNY=CFXS&nbsp;down 0.2% versus the dollar.



A gauge of regional stocks&nbsp;.MSCIEF&nbsp;rose 0.4% after two straight days of losses.



EM assets started 2024 on a sour note, logging declines in January due to uncertainty around the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts and fresh evidence of China&#8217;s uneven economic growth.



China&#8217;s blue-chip index .CSI300 closed up 0.1% on Thursday after a private-sector survey showed the country&#8217;s factory activity expanded modestly in January. Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng .HSI gained 0.5%.



South Korean shares .KS11 advanced 1.8% following data which showed domestic factory activity expanded in January for the first time in 19 months.



Indian shares .NSEI, .BSESN lost momentum after the government presented its last budget before a national election due by May. The country&#8217;s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in January.



In other news, Pakistan&#8217;s election panel has summoned top security officials for a meeting on Thursday to discuss increasing violence in the country&#8217;s western provinces ahead of next week&#8217;s national election.



(Reporting by Amruta Khandekar: Editing by Tasim Zahid)

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Economy

Stocks eye monthly gains on China rebound, currencies steady ahead of US inflation test

Africa’s debt to stay above pre-pandemic levels through 2025, UN official says

Asian shares lose ground as US inflation data awaits; kiwi slides

WTO meeting seeks modest outcomes, with global trade at ‘critical juncture’

Europe, Africa oil markets tighten, lending support to futures

Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don’t rule it out

Africa’s economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023, says African Devt Bank

Ivory Coast cocoa council says it will not default on contracts despite bean shortage

Most base metals fall on stronger dollar after US inflation data

Stocks edge lower in holiday affected trade; Israel’s shekel down after rating cut

US to commit more funds to African rail link for metal exports

Stocks nudge higher on China stimulus signals, Argentina in focus

Vulnerable countries need debt relief ‘now or never’, new report warns

Gold prices to hit $2,200 and a ‘dramatic’ outperformance awaits silver in 2024, says UBS

Gold demand hit record highs in 2023 amid geopolitical risks, China weakness

Major central bank rates plateau in January ahead of expected cuts

Currencies meander after Fed rate cut pushback, PMIs in focus

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