<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="216" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-820x216.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-486162" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-820x216.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-300x79.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-160x42.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-768x202.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-1536x405.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2099x600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /></figure>



The region has an opportunity to develop critical minerals markets and processing industries to maximize the coming boom



From electric vehicles to solar panels to future innovations, the global transition to clean energy is set to further heighten demand for critical minerals. Between 2022 and 2050, demand for nickel will double, cobalt triple and lithium rise tenfold, according to the International Energy Agency. With sub-Saharan Africa estimated to hold about 30 percent of the volume of proven critical mineral reserves, this transition—if managed properly—has the potential to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/REO/AFR/2024/April/English/MineralsNote.ashx">transform the region</a>, the latest&nbsp;<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2024/04/19/regional-economic-outlook-for-sub-saharan-africa-april-2024">Regional Economic Outlook</a>&nbsp;reports.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/News/Country-Focus/2024/Charts/afr-cf-critical-minerals-chart1-v1.ashx?w-1200px" alt=""/></figure>



Sub-Saharan Africa is already at the center of global critical mineral production. The Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for over 70 percent of global cobalt output and approximately half the world’s proven reserves. South Africa, Gabon and Ghana collectively account for over 60 percent of global manganese production. Zimbabwe, alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali, hold substantial but yet-to-be-explored lithium deposits. Other countries with significant critical mineral reserves include Guinea, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia.



With growing demand, proceeds from critical minerals are poised to rise significantly over the next two decades. Global revenues from the extraction of just four key minerals—copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium—are estimated to total $16 trillion over the next 25 years, in 2023-dollar terms. Sub-Saharan Africa stands to reap over 10 percent of these cumulated revenues, which could correspond to an increase in the region’s GDP by 12 percent or more by 2050. Given the volatile nature of commodity prices and the unpredictability over the future direction of technological innovation, these estimates have a high degree of uncertainty—but the general direction is certainly encouraging.



Beyond extraction



The region can generate even greater windfalls by not only exporting raw materials but processing them as well. Raw bauxite, for instance, fetches a modest $65 per ton, but when processed into aluminum it commands a hefty $2,335 per ton, in end-2023 prices. Yet the thousand trucks a day that carry unprocessed lithium from Zimbabwe to ports for shipping to China show that local processing options for critical minerals are too often limited.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/News/Country-Focus/2024/Charts/afr-cf-critical-minerals-chart2-v2a.ashx?w-1200px" alt=""/></figure>



Developing local processing industries could significantly boost value added, create higher-skilled jobs, and increase tax revenues—thereby also supporting poverty reduction and sustainable development. By diversifying their economies and moving up the value chain, countries will become less exposed to volatile commodity prices, and more able to protect themselves against exchange rate volatility and foreign currency reserve pressures.



Foreign direct investment can help provide the capital and expertise to develop mineral processing industries, but the absence of a substantial regional market makes local processing investments less enticing. Policymakers need to remedy this.



Regionally coordinated policies



A regional strategy built on cross-border collaboration and integration can create a larger, more attractive regional market for much-needed investment. A regional strategy is also essential to fully leverage the diversity of critical minerals—clean energy technology requires combining multiple minerals scattered across the region.



Sub-Saharan Africa’s anticipated population boom, coupled with rapid urbanization and industrialization, will likely increase demand for renewable energy and expand the market for processed minerals. The African Continental Free Trade Area can play a key role in reducing trade barriers and developing infrastructure, potentially uniting fragmented critical mineral markets for larger-scale operations and forming regional value chains that draw on both raw and processed mineral inputs. Coordination can also start on a smaller scale, paving the way for larger regional hubs. For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia are collaborating on battery production for two- and three-wheeled electric vehicles popular in African markets.



Countries also need to collaborate on policies to create more favorable investment and business environments. Simplifying bureaucratic procedures and harmonizing mining regulations across borders would foster a stable, predictable investment environment. Efforts to minimize the environmental impacts of mining and processing will help unlock new funding and investment opportunities in green finance. Strengthening the Africa Mining Vision, launched in 2009 by the African Union, could serve as a key framework for these regional efforts.



Domestic reforms



Complementing regional approaches, countries can undertake structural reforms to support domestic companies in mining and related processing sectors. They should approach the application of local content requirements, which mandate the use of local materials and labor, with caution. More broadly, many countries need to reevaluate their inward-looking policies, which can often result in inefficiencies, market distortions, and increased costs. Export bans on raw materials, in particular, can backfire and cause production to fall.



Countries can develop a supportive business environment by strengthening domestic financial markets and improving access to finance. New fintech innovations offer exciting potential to help firms that serve the mining sector but face difficulties in securing traditional financing. Managing new resource windfalls responsibly also requires accountable and transparent institutions, allied with appropriate tax regimes and sound public financial management.

2099×600-ssa-cf-critical-minerals-hero

Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="550" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-820x550.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-486144" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-820x550.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-300x201.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-134x90.jpg 134w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-768x515.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-1536x1031.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WXSNTG2BI5OMZLFTMBEVMCBXYY-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: Dalene Raiters stands at the single room that she shares with her two sons and a grandchild in Eldorado Park, in the south of Johannesburg, South Africa, March 28, 2024. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, May 13 (Reuters) &#8211; South Africans will vote in a national election on May 29 with an unprecedented sense of uncertainty about the outcome, as polls suggest the African National Congress will lose its majority after 30 years in power.



With coalition government looking like a possibility for the first time since the end of apartheid, a dizzying array of 70 parties from Marxists to social democrats to free marketeers are vying for voters&#8217; attention in the last weeks of campaigning.



The following are the key issues that matter to voters who will elect a new National Assembly that will then choose the next president.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-jobs">JOBS</h2>



South Africa has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, trapping millions of people in poverty and making them reliant on social grants, and the problem is worse now than it was at the end of apartheid.



The joblessness rate stood at 32.4% in 2023, nearly 10 points higher than in 1994, when the ANC came to power. Young people account for more than half of the country&#8217;s unemployed, with a rate of over 40%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-economy">ECONOMY</h2>



The root cause of the joblessness crisis is sluggish growth. South Africa&#8217;s economy has barely grown in more than a decade, with economic growth averaging 0.8% since 2012.



Falling tax revenue has caused government debt to rise, with debt-servicing costs consuming a greater share of the national budget than basic education, social protection or health. The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 74.1% in the current fiscal year, up from 63.3% five years ago.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-power-cuts">POWER CUTS</h2>



Known to South Africans as &#8220;load-shedding&#8221;, scheduled power cuts imposed by state utility Eskom because of an inability to generate enough electricity to meet demand are the bane of households as well as companies.



Eskom has been struggling to keep its ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants operational. The utility became dysfunctional in part due to a flourishing of corruption during the administration of former president Jacob Zuma from 2009 to 2018.



The government is working to add generating capacity, largely through deals with private companies operating solar and wind projects. While some projects are operational, the green power push suffered setbacks after some projects failed to secure funding.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-corruption">CORRUPTION</h2>



A long series of corruption scandals involving ANC figures or people connected to them has created a perception among many South Africans that the greed of people in office is contributing to poor service delivery for everyone else.



An inquiry established in 2018 to examine allegations of&nbsp;high-level corruption during Zuma&#8217;s years in power&nbsp;found the problem had been systemic in government, a phenomenon that became known as &#8220;state capture&#8221;.&nbsp;Zuma himself denies any wrongdoing.



Since taking over from Zuma, President Cyril Ramaphosa has said tackling corruption was a priority, but opposition critics say his administration has done too little to stop the rot.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-crime">CRIME</h2>



South Africa has one of the world&#8217;s highest rates of violent crime, making it unsafe to venture into certain neighbourhoods. The problem is worse in the densely populated townships on the peripheries of cities where many Black working class people live.



The murder rate for 2022/23 was the highest in 20 years at 45 per 100,000, a 50% increase from a decade ago, police figures show. That is higher than in Honduras, a country plagued by extreme gang violence.



High levels of poverty, unemployment and inequality have created fertile ground for crime to take root in South Africa, compounded by the proliferation of organised criminal groups and a flood of illegal weapons in recent years.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-immigration">IMMIGRATION</h2>



Since the end of apartheid, South Africa has attracted large numbers of refugees and immigrants from other African countries, seeking a safe haven and job opportunities.



The most recent census, in 2022, found that 2.4 million of South Africa&#8217;s population of 62 million were immigrants, compared with 835,000 in 1996, the year the post-apartheid constitution was promulgated.



Over the years, anti-immigrant sentiment has risen, and South Africa has experienced several violent crises when immigrants have been beaten up or killed by mobs and their businesses have been looted.



With voters turning against African immigrants, the government as well as the opposition have increasingly talked about tightening immigration laws to reduce the number of arrivals, and about cracking down on undocumented immigration.



In April, the government approved&nbsp;a policy report&nbsp;on toughening up the country&#8217;s immigration laws. It raised the possibility that South Africa could withdraw from United Nations conventions on refugees to &#8220;deter economic migrants who come to South Africa disguising as asylum seekers&#8221;.



A bill based on the&nbsp;report&nbsp;is expected to be introduced in parliament should the ANC remain in power after the election.



(Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Estelle Shirbon and Toby Chopra)

FILE PHOTO: South African social safety net at crossroads as ANC support wanes

Key issues for South African voters in wide open 2024 election

Most underrated travel destination?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="540" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-820x540.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-486141" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-820x540.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-137x90.jpg 137w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-768x506.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-1536x1012.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YPMFQQSS3NLHLJL3LP32C774LE-1-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A shopper walks past a Vodacom shop in Johannesburg, file. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



JOHANNESBURG, May 13 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;South Africa&#8217;s Vodacom Group&nbsp;VODJ.J&nbsp;on Monday reported a 10.8% fall in full-year earnings, impacted by start-up loss in Ethiopia, higher finance and energy costs and inflationary pressure.



The company, majority-owned by Britain&#8217;s Vodafone&nbsp;VOD.L, co-launched Safaricom Ethiopia in 2022 as part of a consortium, betting that the populous nation will power growth after about five years of investment. Vodacom has a direct 5.7% stake.



The biggest telecoms operator in South Africa said headline earnings per share (HEPS), a profit measure, fell to 846 cents in the year ended March 31 from 948 cents a year earlier.



Group CEO Shameel Joosub said weaker exchange rates across markets including the recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound contributed to the decline in HEPS.



He said despite start-up costs associated with operations in Ethiopia, Safaricom has confirmed that its network roll-out was on track in Africa&#8217;s second-most populous country after Nigeria.



Group service revenue grew 29.1% to 120.9 billion rand ($6.57 billion), benefiting from the acquisition of Vodafone Egypt. On a pro-forma comparable basis, group service revenue growth was 9.2%, at the higher end of its medium-term range.



Group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew 24.3% to 56.1 billion rand and by 7.8% on a pro-forma basis, with Egypt being a key driver of the growth.



Joosub said despite the economic backdrop, the group is committed to capital expenditure of 13% to 14.5% of overall revenue of 151 billion rand.



The board declared a final dividend of 285 cents a share.



($1 = 18.4096 rand)



(Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christopher Cushing)

FILE PHOTO: A shopper walks past a Vodacom shop in Johannesburg

South Africa’s Vodacom profit hit by Ethiopia loss

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="461" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063-820x461.webp" alt="" class="wp-image-486123" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063-820x461.webp 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063-300x169.webp 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063-160x90.webp 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063-768x432.webp 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063.webp 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">55% of leaders say they’re concered about having enough talent to fill roles in the year ahead as AI skills become more relevant than ever before, new study finds. Pixdeluxe | E+ | Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



Today’s winners are learning how to leverage artificial intelligence to stay competitive and relevant — employees and businesses alike.



“AI is not going to replace you. You’re going to be replaced by someone who uses AI to outperform you,” said Laurence Liew, director for AI Innovation at AI Singapore, during a panel discussion at Salesforce’s World Tour Essentials event in Singapore.



While a lot of professionals (45%) worry AI will replace their job, the majority (55%) of leaders are concerned about a lack of talent to fill roles, according to the 2024 Microsoft Work Trends Index.



There is a dearth of talent, and consequently a huge opportunity for people who can learn AI skills, with as many 71% of corporate leaders saying they’d prefer a less experienced candidate with AI skills over a more experienced one without them, according to the report.



While AI has been the talk of the town ever since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022, big companies have been slow to integrate the technology and help upskill their talent pools.



There is a gap in the modern workplace between what appears necessary and what is seemingly feasible.



While 79% of executives believe their company should adopt AI to stay competitive, the pressure to generate immediate returns on investment has slowed AI transition, according to the Microsoft study.



As a result, employees around the world are taking matters into their own hands, learning to use AI tools on their own. While upskilling on AI at home can lead to a competitive edge, it also poses a few problems.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-the-risks-of-self-learning-ai">The risks of self-learning AI</h2>



Experts say one of the biggest issues with upskilling on AI at home is that many people don’t know how to do it safely and effectively.



To the naked eye, there are many “free” AI resources online such as ChatGPT and other tools using large language models (LLMs), but experts say these tools aren’t actually free. LLMs are algorithms that can identify, summarize, translate, forecast, and produce information by employing huge datasets.



“There’s nothing free in this world. Your data is the commodity that you are trading,” Liew said. “You should not be using your company data or any of your own personal data [when using free online AI tools].”



Doing so can put sensitive personal or company data at risk. Part of upskilling on AI tools is learning how to do so safely and effectively.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The must-have AI skill</h2>



The top skill to learn today is communicating effectively with existing AI-powered LLMs, according to Liew. Open AI’s ChatGPT, Microsoft’s Copilot and Google’s Gemini employ LLMs.



“People use ChatGPT wrongly — because it looks exactly like Google search,” Liew told CNBC Make It.



When working with an LLM, the key is to be specific in your prompts.



“You have to give the AI a lot of context — treat AI like a very hardworking intern that will make mistakes occasionally &#8230; If you think about it, if you’re [asking] an intern to do something, it won’t be one sentence. The intern would probably be scratching their head on what to do,” he said.



The best way to upskill on AI tools at home is to use them, according to Liew. Through practice, you can learn how to feed the LLM more descriptive prompts that will help generate your desired outcome.



“You still need to know [your domain] very well [but] the mundane part of looking through 20 files is now done by the AI system — imagine when you can turn around [work] at that kind of speed — the type of transformation that can happen,” Liew said.



Although AI tools may still seem foreign, by next year, “it will be like knowing how to use your spell-checker in Microsoft Word,” Liew said.

107412522-1715225276125-gettyimages-2012746910-jh_coders2_0063

AI may not replace you, but someone who uses it can — here’s the No. 1 skill you need to stay relevant

New Walmart in-store AI is giving employees advice on how to sell

Why Prices Might Never Go Back Down

How will AI impact the gaming market?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="519" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-820x519.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-485152" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-820x519.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-300x190.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-142x90.jpg 142w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-768x486.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-1536x973.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/H55DMSYUAZO7PH4RBRJ4J7JK64-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A small toy figure and mineral imitation are seen in front of the BHP logo in this illustration taken November 19, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



May 10 (Reuters) &#8211; BHP Group BHP.AX is weighing its next move after its initial $39 billion proposal to buy Anglo American AAL.L was rejected.



The world&#8217;s No. 1 miner could table a formal offer on or before May 22 or seek an extension. It may also insist that Anglo un-bundles the South African platinum and iron ore units that BHP doesn&#8217;t want in a merged company.



Anglo is a household name in Africa&#8217;s most industrialised economy with its links to South African mining enduring for more than a century.



Here is how South Africa&#8217;s regulatory processes will operate if BHP goes ahead with the proposed acquisition:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-antitrust-agencies">ANTITRUST AGENCIES</h2>



South Africa&#8217;s Competition Commission has said it must be notified of any transaction that results in a change of control over Anglo&#8217;s businesses in the country.



Even if Anglo agrees to spin off Anglo American Platinum&nbsp;AMSJ.J&nbsp;and Kumba Iron Ore&nbsp;KIOJ.J, it would still have assets in South Africa including De Beers&#8217; Venetia diamond mine and a 40% shareholding in Samancor, a manganese joint venture with South32.



The Competition Tribunal adjudicates on matters referred to it by the Competition Commission. The Competition Appeal Court could also be involved if decisions of the Commission and Tribunal are contested.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-competition-commission-hurdle">COMPETITION COMMISSION HURDLE</h2>



The Commission examines aspects of a deal it considers anti-competitive, and also the impact on the operations of small and medium-sized businesses, jobs, local ownership and workers&#8217; equity participation in business entities.



Law firm Bowmans said in a recent note that some of these public interest aspects &#8220;undermine&#8221; investment in South Africa, especially if applied in an inflexible manner.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-who-else-is-involved">WHO ELSE IS INVOLVED?</h2>



The transfer of mining rights would need to comply with Section 11 of South Africa&#8217;s Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act, requiring the holder of mining titles to notify the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy and the Ministry of Finance of its intention to transfer them.



The ministries have 90 days to decide whether to allow the transfer of rights, after considering factors such as the new owner&#8217;s capacity to comply with mining law and government mining policies. The period can be extended under certain circumstances, to ensure &#8220;thorough evaluation&#8221;.



South African competition lawyer Michelle Le Roux told Reuters she does not foresee significant obstacles over mining rights should BHP&#8217;s proposed acquisition go ahead.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-labour-unions">LABOUR UNIONS</h2>



South Africa&#8217;s registered labour unions have a legal right to information from the parties involved in the merger, including details of the impact on employment.



Trade union representatives participate in merger hearings and can make submissions for anti-trust agencies to consider when ruling on a transaction.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-protracted-process">PROTRACTED PROCESS</h2>



The Competition Commission has 40 business days to investigate large mergers and can seek a 15-day extension with the consent of both parties and the Competition Tribunal.



However, competition lawyer Le Roux said that for large mergers the process could ultimately take between six months and three years to reach a conclusion, depending on appeals against the Commission&#8217;s ruling.



&#8220;It really is a very variable time-frame and it’s normally determined by how much opposition there is, how complicated the issues are, how many stakeholders and participants need to be heard and have their concerns addressed,&#8221; she told Reuters.



Walmart&#8217;s&nbsp;WMT.N&nbsp;$2.3 billion purchase of a 51% stake in South Africa&#8217;s Massmart took 16 months before the Competition Appeal Court gave the deal a green light, with conditions, in March 2012.



The merger was bogged down by objections from labour unions and the South African government over its effect on employment and small businesses.



&#8220;The real question is what the final deal looks like and what potential package of remedies, conditions would be put on the table,&#8221; Le Roux said of BHP&#8217;s proposed Anglo deal.



&#8220;From the reaction to the initial announcement, it&#8217;s clear that the deal is going to have a lot of scrutiny and is likely to attract quite a lot of participation from different stakeholders.&#8221;



(Reporting by Nelson Banya; Additional reporting by Felix Njini; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

FILE PHOTO: Small toy figure and mineral imitation are seen in front of the BHP logo in this illustration

How South Africa’s anti-trust agencies could influence BHP’s Anglo deal

How Retailers Like T.J. Maxx And Home Depot Quietly Target ‘Problem’ Returners

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="682" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-485072" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1.jpg 1024w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1-820x546.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/IMG-20240424-WA0008-1-768x512.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Yershen Pillay, CEO of Chemical Industries Education &amp; Training Authority(CHIETA)</figcaption></figure>



The recent announcement by Shell that it will be divesting from its downstream operations in South Africa has been turned into a political football to score cheap political points by some in society. The sensationalism surrounding Shell’s exit is associated with the upcoming national elections. However, a more comprehensive analysis paints a picture of a company implementing its global strategy, regardless of what the issues may be in the South African context.



It’s important to highlight the facts. This is not the first time that an oil major has taken a decision to divest from some of its key business operations. Similar decisions were taken by Chevron in 2018, including Engen and Puma. Why was the same level of attention not given to these companies over similar decisions made in the past? Perhaps the context was not favourable for any political party to do so. That said, we cannot ignore the fact that such decisions by oil and gas companies are not new or unique in the chemical industries.



The decision taken by Shell to divest from its downstream business operations is aligned to its 2024 Energy Transition Strategy. Shell has openly communicated its strategy to reduce carbon emissions and focus on its more profitable upstream businesses. In the actual strategy document, Shell Chairperson Sir Andrew Mackenize states, “We aim to grow our public charging network for electric vehicles and remain one of the world’s largest blenders and distributors of biofuels. As the energy transition progresses, we expect to sell more low-carbon products and solutions, and less oil products including petrol and diesel.”



Furthermore, it is important to consider that Shell has taken similar decisions in other countries and not just South Africa. This includes countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. Shell has sold its 61-year-old refinery in Singapore, announced plans to sell its 950 service stations in Malaysia, and the company recently announced its plans to sell its onshore subsidiary in Nigeria. These decisions are more aligned to Shell’s 2024 Energy Transition Strategy than they are to any of the other factors being highlighted in the mainstream media.



What does this mean for us in South Africa? It means that we have been presented with a massive opportunity. Why is this an opportunity and how can we seize this opportunity?



First, the decision by Shell may present an opportunity for substantive transformation and local economic development rather than a loss of foreign investment. The petroleum sub-sector in the chemical industries remains largely untransformed. Many of the transformation initiatives have led to BBBEE companies becoming “post-box” type companies without any involvement in actual oil and gas production or petroleum operations. Shell’s exit from its downstream operations presents an opportunity for increasing transformation in the sector. The gap in the market will be filled by another oil or energy major. The question is whether our local South African companies will be supported to seize such an opportunity or will it be left to international oil and energy majors such as Vitol to step in.



The second opportunity lies in the potential for new jobs to be created. Jobs will not be lost. In fact, as we have seen with Astron Energy after Chevron exited South Africa in 2018, it is highly likely that most jobs will be sustained. Shell has actually been “job-shedding” since 2019 with employment across its three businesses in South Africa declining from 1&nbsp;423 to 1&nbsp;062 employees in the country. A new business with a new strategy could turn this tide towards more positive jobs figures.



The third opportunity lies in SMME and skills development. The takeover of Shell’s downstream businesses could present an opportunity for new venture creation and local skills development which is much needed in the petroleum sub-sector. This is not to suggest that Shell has not been contributing to SMME or local skills development. Shell contributes significantly to skills levies being the 11th largest contributor in the chemical industries. What it does present is an opportunity for a &nbsp;more rigorous focus on SMME and skills development through a more innovative strategy.



There was no need to justify why South Africa remains a desirable investment destination. The government of Singapore did not attempt to explain why Singapore remains a desirable investment destination when Shell recently decided to sell its 61-year-old refinery in the country. The Malaysian government did not bother explaining why Malaysia is still good for business after Shell announced it’s plans to divest from 950 service stations throughout the South East Asian country. Similarly, the South African government should interpret Shell&#8217;s exit from its downstream operations as an opportunity rather than a loss.



The Chemical Industries SETA, CHIETA, will continue to support the growth and development of the petrochemicals sector through our increased investments into skills development and training. Shell’s exit presents three opportunities. First, an opportunity for new job creation that benefits local citizens. Second, an opportunity for substantive transformation through local beneficiation. Third, an opportunity for increasing the scale, scope, and speed of SMME and skills development. The question is whether we can seize these three opportunities for the benefit of local South Africans.

IMG-20240424-WA0008-1

Shell’s exit from SA is not a loss, it’s an opportunity.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="600" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-820x600.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-474643" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-820x600.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-300x220.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-123x90.jpg 123w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-768x562.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-1536x1124.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/7EUCZ6RKSVIQDGLZGVKYD2BO74-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe building in Harare, Zimbabwe March 1, 2024. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo/FILE PHOTO</figcaption></figure>



HARARE, May 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;Zimbabwe will fine businesses using inflated exchange rates as the government battles to maintain the value of its newly introduced gold-backed currency, the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG).



Any business using an exchange rate higher than the official rate of 13.5 ZiG per U.S. dollar will be liable for a fine of 200,000 ZiG ($14,815), according to a government notice seen by Reuters.



Anyone offering &#8220;goods or services at an exchange rate above the prevailing interbank foreign currency selling rate&#8221; would be guilty of a civil infringement, read the notice, issued late on Thursday.



The government has been making efforts to keep the ZiG afloat since its launch in early April, with authorities launching a blitz on illegal foreign currency traders last month.



Some businesses such as supermarkets have been charging a premium above the market rate for customers paying in the new currency, while the ZiG is being rejected by informal traders.



Zimbabwe&#8217;s Treasury on Tuesday moved to enforce the use of the ZiG as the official unit of exchange for transactions.



This is Zimbabwe&#8217;s fourth attempt at having a local currency within a decade, with the southern African country dumping the Zimdollar last month after it lost 70% value since the start of the year.



(Reporting by Nyasha Chingono; Editing by Nellie Peyton and Ros Russell)

A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe building in Harare

Zimbabwe to fine businesses not using new official exchange rate

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-485033" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/ENAWVZJZOJJ6ZPFMNTHQI2ILHA-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 8, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



May 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;European shares opened at a record high on Friday, led by energy companies and miners, setting the benchmark index for its biggest weekly gain since late January on growing interest rate cut bets in the region.



The pan-European STOXX 600&nbsp;.STOXX&nbsp;climbed 0.5% in a broad-based rally, eyeing a 2.8% weekly gain.



Earlier this week, the Bank of England hinted at summer rate cuts and Sweden&#8217;s Riksbank delivered its first cut since 2016. Last month, the European Central Bank in its policy meeting signalled a rate cut in June, all underscoring Europe&#8217;s divergence from the U.S. Federal Reserve.



Investors awaited minutes from the ECB&#8217;s last policy meeting later on Friday.



Basic resources .SXPP, up 1.4%, topped sectoral gainers tracking higher metal prices, while energy stocks .SXEP rose 1.1% in line with gains in oil prices.



Iveco Group IVG.MI jumped 4%, after the Italian truck and bus maker reported higher first-quarter operating profit, with margin improving in all business segments.



Zalando ZALG.DE rose 3.8% after Berenberg upgraded the German online retailer to &#8220;Buy&#8221; from &#8220;Hold&#8221;, while Symrise SY1G.DE dropped 1.2% after Berenberg downgraded the German flavour and fragrance maker to &#8220;Hold&#8221; from &#8220;Buy&#8221;.



(Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York

European shares open at record high on boost from energy stocks, miners

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="542" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-820x542.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-485030" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-820x542.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-300x198.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-136x90.jpg 136w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-768x508.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-1536x1016.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/FHIKFJVD35PPPPLPAX7WXD3VZU-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">FILE PHOTO: A stacker unloads iron ore onto a pile at a mine located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia December 2, 2013. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;China&#8217;s iron ore imports are likely to climb to an all-time high this year, helped by shipments from India and Ukraine, as well as resilient demand in the world&#8217;s biggest consumer of the key steelmaking ingredient, analysts and market participants said.



Imports are expected to rise between 15 to 50 million metric tons from last year&#8217;s 1.18 billion tons, according to five analysts on the sidelines of an industry conference in Singapore this week, against earlier expectations of a decline.



China bought 411.82 million tons of iron ore in the first four months of 2024, up 7.2% from last year, even though crude steel output in the first quarter fell 1.9%.



Improved logistics in the Black Sea are driving up supplies from Ukraine after two years, while a rebound in iron ore prices from a near six-month low in late March&nbsp;DCIOcv1&nbsp;is encouraging Indian exporters to ship larger volumes to China, analysts said.



&#8220;Export will be definitely higher this year and so is the volume to China because of easing logistics problem in the Black Sea,&#8221; said a Ukraine-based iron ore miner at the conference, asking not to be named.



China buys the bulk of its iron ore from Australia and Brazil, with India and Ukraine being minor suppliers.



Brazilian mining company Vale VALE3.SA said it expects Chinese imports for 2024 at 1.170 to 1.180 billion tons.



Arrivals from India will rise to 45 million tons this year from 36.52 million tons in 2023, said an east China-based analyst.



China&#8217;s iron ore imports from Ukraine fell to 660,317 tons in 2023 from 17.43 million tons in 2021, customs data showed.



&#8220;Exports of iron ore from India have been rising since prices started recovering,&#8221; said a Mumbai-based bulk shipping broker.



While China&#8217;s steel industry is struggling with declining demand from the beleaguered property sector and awaits measures by Beijing to curb output, iron ore demand is likely to benefit from expected economic recovery in the second half of the year.



Last month, China&#8217;s state planner said it will continue to manage crude steel output in 2024, without giving details.



China&#8217;s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, offering relief to officials trying to shore up growth in the face of protracted weakness in the property sector and mounting local government debt.



Around 90% of steel in China is produced from the blast-furnace and basic-oxygen furnace-based process, which requires iron ore, although Beijing aims to increase the share of steel made from electric-arc-furnaces using steel scrap to 15% by 2025.



While Beijing has yet to unveil the exact timing and scale on its steel output curbs this year, analysts said authorities may not enact stringent control measures as its aims to boost economic growth.



&#8220;We believe steel production will be firm in China this year as the effectiveness of (steel output) controls is low because there is less motivation to enforce, and that means resilient ore demand,&#8221; said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities.



(Reporting by Amy Lv and Naveen Thukral; Editing by Varun H K)

FILE PHOTO: A stacker unloads iron ore onto a pile at a mine located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia

China’s 2024 iron ore imports seen at record on higher supplies, robust demand

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="575" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-820x575.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-485012" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-820x575.jpeg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-300x210.jpeg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-128x90.jpeg 128w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-768x539.jpeg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-1536x1078.jpeg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394-scaled.jpeg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Photo: via CNBC</figcaption></figure>



The U.K. economy has emerged from recession as gross domestic product rose 0.6% in the first quarter, official figures showed Friday, beating expectations.



Economists polled by Reuters had forecast growth of 0.4% on the previous three months of the year.



The U.K. entered a shallow recession in the second half of 2023, as persistent inflation continued to hurt the economy.



Although there is no official definition of a recession, two straight quarters of negative growth is widely considered a technical recession.



The U.K.’s production sector expanded by 0.8% in the period from January to March, while construction fell by 0.9%. On a monthly basis, the economy grew by 0.4% in March, following 0.2% expansion in February.



In output terms, the services sector — crucial to the U.K. economy — grew for the first time since the first quarter in 2023, the Office for National Statistics said. The 0.7% growth was mainly driven by the transport services industry which saw its highest quarterly growth rate since 2020.



U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose Conservative Party recently suffered significant losses at local elections, welcomed the news. “The economy has turned a corner,” he said in a post on social media platform X.



“We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it,” Sunak added.



Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW, a professional group for chartered accountants, struck a more measured tone. He said the positive impact of weaker inflation could be curtailed by a renewed caution to spend amid political uncertainty ahead of general elections expected later this year.



“The UK’s escape from recession is a rather hollow victory because the big picture remains one of an economy struggling with stagnation, as poor productivity and high economic inactivity limits our growth potential,” said Thiru.



The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday warned that indicators of persistent inflation “remain elevated,” and voted to keep its main interest rate at 5.25%.



The central bank forecast headline inflation close to 2% in the near-term, but said it expects an increase slightly later in the year as the effects of a sharp fall in energy prices wear off.

107374281-1708014467967-gettyimages-2005544457-75350394

UK economy emerges from recession with 0.6% growth in first quarter

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="547" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-820x547.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-484765" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-820x547.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-135x90.jpg 135w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GettyImages-1251784570-scaled.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters during the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, April 13, 2023. The IMF trimmed its global-growth projections, warning of high uncertainty and risks as financial-sector stress adds to pressures emanating from tighter monetary policy. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images</figcaption></figure>



LUSAKA, May 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it would continue discussions with Zambian authorities on policies&nbsp;that would unlock the next disbursal from a $1.3 billion, three year loan programme.



An IMF staff team was in Lusaka from April 24 to May 7 to discuss Zambia&#8217;s economic policies for its third review of the country&#8217;s 38-month Extended Credit-Facility programme, which was approved in September 2022.



The completion of the review would pave the way for the fourth disbursement under the programme, after the IMF&#8217;s board released $187 million in December, as the country moves closer to emerging from debt default while struggling with a punishing drought.



Vera Martin, the IMF&#8217;s mission chief for the southern African nation, said talks between the IMF staff and the authorities focused on analysing recent economic developments and the impact of the drought.



&#8220;Discussions will continue virtually in the coming weeks toward completion of the Third ECF review,&#8221; sheadded in a statement issued at the end of the mission that did not say why an agreement was not reached during the visit to Lusaka.



One of the largest copper producers on the African continent, Zambia defaulted in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.



Its debt restructuring efforts have been beset by delays, although they took a step forward in March when the government and a group of bondholders reached a deal-in-principle to rework about $3 billion of international bonds.



(Reporting by Chris Mfula in Lusaka, additional reporting by Jahnavi Nidumolu and Disha Mishra, Writing by Bhargav Acharya and Rachel Savage Editing by Bate Felix and David Gregorio)

Spring Meetings Of The International Monetary Fund And World Bank

IMF to continue discussions with Zambian authorities after visit

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="820" height="429" src="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-820x429.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-484761" srcset="https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-820x429.jpg 820w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-300x157.jpg 300w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-160x84.jpg 160w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-768x402.jpg 768w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA-1536x804.jpg 1536w, https://cms.cnbcafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/GC7HNKWOIJJN5O747ZM3TPIJOA.jpg 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The skeleton of a fish is seen in the Navarro lagoon, which dried up due to the climate phenomenon La Nina, in Navarro, in Buenos Aires province, Argentina December 5, 2022. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo</figcaption></figure>



May 9 (Reuters)&nbsp;&#8211;&nbsp;The El Nino weather pattern should fade out by June but could be replaced by the La Nina phenomenon by the second half of the year, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.



There is a 49% chance that the La Nina weather pattern may develop during the June to August period, rising to 69% in July-September, the National Weather Service&#8217;s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-why-it-s-important">WHY IT&#8217;S IMPORTANT</h2>



The cycle between the weather patterns &#8212; which can spawn wildfires, tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts &#8212; is vital to farmers worldwide.



In Latin America, they have affected crops such as wheat, soy and corn, damaging regional economies often highly dependent on farming.



Hot, dry weather in Asia during El Nino last year prompted top rice supplier&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reutersconnect.com/all?search=all%3AL4N3ES0O6&amp;linkedFromStory=true" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">India</a>&nbsp;to restrict exports following a poor monsoon, while wheat output in No.2 exporter Australia took a hit. But heavier rains in parts of the Americas boosted farm output prospects in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-context">CONTEXT</h2>



The full weather pattern involving El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase typically lasts between two to seven years.



Experts have warned that Latin American nations must be on high alert as a rapid switch to La Nina this time could leave populations and crops little time to recover.



Australia&#8217;s weather bureau said last month that the El Nino event has ended.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="h-key-quotes">KEY QUOTES</h2>



&#8220;La Nina is likely to affect the production of wheat and corn in the US, and soybean, barley, wheat and corn in Latin America including Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay,&#8221; said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI.



&#8220;The weather phenomenon is associated with long-lasting droughts throughout the Americas region, triggering poor crop quality and a drop in average yields, further exacerbating global supply issues.&#8221;



(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru, Editing by Rosalba O&#8217;Brien)

home

Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth

Key issues for South African voters in wide open 2024 election

Most underrated travel destination?

South Africa’s Vodacom profit hit by Ethiopia loss

AI may not replace you, but someone who uses it can — here’s the No. 1 skill you need to stay relevant

New Walmart in-store AI is giving employees advice on how to sell

Why Prices Might Never Go Back Down

How will AI impact the gaming market?

How South Africa’s anti-trust agencies could influence BHP’s Anglo deal

How Retailers Like T.J. Maxx And Home Depot Quietly Target ‘Problem’ Returners

Shell’s exit from SA is not a loss, it’s an opportunity.

Zimbabwe to fine businesses not using new official exchange rate

European shares open at record high on boost from energy stocks, miners

China’s 2024 iron ore imports seen at record on higher supplies, robust demand

UK economy emerges from recession with 0.6% growth in first quarter

IMF to continue discussions with Zambian authorities after visit

El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster

News Tips

Advertise With Us

home

Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth

Key issues for South African voters in wide open 2024 election

Most underrated travel destination?

South Africa’s Vodacom profit hit by Ethiopia loss

AI may not replace you, but someone who uses it can — here’s the No. 1 skill you need to stay relevant

New Walmart in-store AI is giving employees advice on how to sell

Why Prices Might Never Go Back Down

How will AI impact the gaming market?

How South Africa’s anti-trust agencies could influence BHP’s Anglo deal

How Retailers Like T.J. Maxx And Home Depot Quietly Target ‘Problem’ Returners

Shell’s exit from SA is not a loss, it’s an opportunity.

Zimbabwe to fine businesses not using new official exchange rate

European shares open at record high on boost from energy stocks, miners

China’s 2024 iron ore imports seen at record on higher supplies, robust demand

UK economy emerges from recession with 0.6% growth in first quarter

IMF to continue discussions with Zambian authorities after visit

El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster

News Tips

Advertise With Us

Newsletters